NRL Preliminary Finals Preview: Beware the Bulldogs
NRL Ladder 
/ Nick Tedeschi / 24 September 2009 / Leave a comment Bet Now
Friday night will be another case of a little bit of history repeating, writes Nick Tedeschi.
This Friday night Parramatta will play in their sixth preliminary final of the last twelve. In their previous five, they have lost four of them including three as big favourites. In 1998 they lost to the Bulldogs despite leading 18-2 with 11 minutes remaining in a game infamously known as The Paul Carige Match.
The current spiritual leaders of the Eels, Nathan Hindmarsh and Nathan Cayless, have been at Parramatta for all four defeats. Both have admitted throughout the week that the scars of such failure at the business end of the season has them both nervous.
That cannot be a good sign. Nor is the likely injury withdrawal of outstanding rookie five-eighth Daniel Mortimer.
Parramatta are undoubtedly the form team of the NRL with nine wins in their last ten matches but there success has been almost purely based on the form of two players: the now injured Mortimer and Dally M Medal winner Jarryd Hayne.
The Bulldogs, whose defence has been outstanding this year, can focus their attention solely on Hayne and that should be the key to the match.
For the Bulldogs, they get key playmaker Brett Kimmorley back. He will bring a sense of calm and order to a team who has thrived under his leadership all season.
The Bulldogs are dangerous across the park. Amazingly, they are marginal outsiders for the match. That is great value. The Bulldogs are value at anything above 1.72.
In the second match, the season ending injury to Brisbane halfback Peter Wallace should see the Melbourne Storm advance to their fourth straight Grand Final. Brisbane have struggled without Wallace this season losing all three games he has missed by an average of 35.33 points.
Melbourne have also won 11 of their last 14 against Brisbane and have not lost to the Broncos in Melbourne since 2003.
With the Storm fitter, fresher and more talented, it is tough to see Brisbane challenging the Storm. Expect Billy Slater (3 hat-tricks in his last 4 matches at Ethiad Stadium) to lead Melbourne to a big win.
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