Rugby League / Andy Morris / 24 April 2009 / 2 Comments Bet Now

Brisbane (1.31) v Parramatta (4.1) +10.5 Total 42.5
Suncorp Stadium, Friday, 7.35PM AEST

Broncos

Curious change for the Broncos with Taylor dropped. Brisbane did look the goods last week over Penrith, but missed 33 tackles in the second half. They need to be scoring five tries per game to compensate for those mistakes. On the plus side, Lockyer has yet to fire this season so there's plenty left in the tank.

Eels

The Eels were belted last week yet only one player gets the axe - Inu. Grothe is out injured and all in all, the Eels look a rabble. Hindmarsh does return after a wrist problem in a much-needed boost to the 13. Sunday to Friday schedule doesn't leave much time for recovery and the salvation plan.

Verdict

One positive for Parramatta is their recent record against Brisbane - the last two trips to Suncorp have been four points either way and they gave out a 68-22 spanking at home in round 25 last season. But how can you back a team that conceded six tries in a half at home just five days ago?

Brisbane by plenty, but in no rush to give away a double-figure start.

South Sydney (1.68) v Cronulla (2.44) +3.5 Total 38.5
ANZ Stadium, Friday 7.35PM AEST

Rabbitohs

The Bunnies had their chances early, bottled it at the crucial stage and then got blown away last week against a firing Manly. Pretty unlucky considering the Sea Eagles are unlikely to look like that again this year! Chris Sandow is the man opposing coaches plan to target - he racked up his second double-figure tally of missed tackles last week, there's nowhere for him to hide. He misses the experience of Wesser alongside him to settle him down. Souths aren't that bad, but they have lost three games here this season which is a concern.

Sharks

Is there any hope for the Sharks? Five losses in a row in probably the most even season of NRL in recent memory is not a record to be proud of. Captain Paul Gallen returns and they desperately need some inspirational leadership for him. On the plus side, the Sharks had four disallowed tries last week - at least they are getting close to the line for a change.

Verdict

Home ground + poor opposition = opportunity. Both teams have played Newcastle and the Bulldogs and the combined advantage to Souths is +32 points. Simplistic analysis yes, but sometimes we miss the blindingly obvious in searching for an angle. Souths to win but it's not a game I can get excited about.

Sydney Roosters (2.44) +3.5 v St.George-Illawarra (1.68)
Sydney Football Stadium, Saturday 3PM AEST

Roosters

Close last week in Auckland but flattered by the scoreline in the end, giving away a 16-0 lead. Roosters fans should be buoyant about Anasta, Mason and Fitzgibbon being left out of the NSW squad - it's their best chance of making the finals! That slap in the face should rev them up a bit. Concentration for 80 minutes is the biggest issue for the Roosters this year.

Dragons

Last week's effort against Newcastle was OK apart from an eight-minute spell where they conceded three tries. After four straight wins, you can allow them a brief lapse considering the points against tally is less than everyone bar the Titans. The return of Cooper in the centres and Weyman at prop gives a lot more steel to the Dragons. Costigan (returning from a broken hand) and Sailor (left hamstring) face late fitness tests.

Verdict

The second-worst defence against the second-best, and only three pts per game between the attacks. The Dragons are a better team this week but some of the older Roosters might just come out ready to walk barefoot on broken glass and run through brick walls. ANZAC festivities tend to get the blood pumping and Origin snubs are a big wake-up call. This is a danger game and I'd prefer to stay out of it.

Melbourne (1.53) v New Zealand (2.82) +7.5
Olympic Park, Saturday 5.30PM AEST

Storm

Melbourne need help and soon! They look one-dimensional and without any creativity at all. Only six points last week against a team leaking more than 30 per game was diabolical. Three poor matches in a row have the alarm bells ringing. What price for them to miss the 8? The side is unchanged but Finch, Manu and White could be rushed in if they pass late fitness tests. Backing up from a wet Monday night game makes the task just that little bit tougher too.

Warriors

The return of key players made all the difference for the Warriors last week. The golden-point win could have been by a few tries if not for untimely errors. The expected void at full-back was plugged by Hohaia in a surprise return from injury. After three rounds the Kiwis looked as good as any other team in the comp. Back to something like their best 13, the Aussie teams should be worried.

Verdict

Olympic Park holds no fears for the visitors, they've won two of their past three matches here. The Storm are too good not to bounce back from this rut eventually, but the poor form is starting to become ingrained. Have to take the 7.5pts start for the Warriors.

North Queensland (1.74) v Manly (2.28) +3.5
Dairy Farmers Stadium, Saturday 7.30PM AEST

Cowboys

Easy win over the Sharks 'away' last week, sustained pressure in the second half broke their opponents down and they romped away with five tries in half an hour. Here they receive another leg-up with Manly sans B.Stewart. Thurston hasn't been in the best of form but selection for the rep teams is due and his form is starting to improve.

Sea Eagles

Held their nerve well against Souths and they just ran away with it last week, with B.Stewart pulling all the strings. But those strings have been snipped this week by a knee injury, so is it back to the Manly of rounds 1-4? The confidence boost of a couple of wins will have their spirits high, but you can be sure the media and Cowboys fans will be reminding them of who they're missing. David 'Wolfman' Williams returns to the side.

Verdict

If the Cowboys are to be the team that was much vaunted as a premiership chance pre-season, then they must win this one. The witches' hats came out in the second half last week, and Manly have personnel issues. Lean to the Cowboys but if Manly can get over the Stewart factor, they are right in this. Pass.

Canberra (1.78) v Bulldogs (2.22)
Bruce Stadium, Sunday 2PM AEST

Raiders

Canberra's fortunes are turning around, two wins and they only lost against the Titans last week in the dying minutes. The loss of Marc Herbert at halfback throws a lot more pressure on Terry Campese, young gun Josh McCrone steps into the fire, renewing a combination from years in reserve grade. Six wins from their past seven home games.

Bulldogs

The Dogs broke loose against a disappointing Eels unit last week, running over nine tries. The first two went to Josh Morris inside ten minutes, who then broke down with a foot injury, keeping him out of this clash. His absence will be a blow, but they had an hour of practice without him last week. David Stagg returns after illness and boom youth Jamal Idris returns after a banishment to the Toyota Cup for off-field indiscretions.

Verdict

The two clashes last year delivered 76 and 86 points. The Raiders won both of those matches but the teams are now very different. Josh Morris will be missed, but the formations worked well last week and Idris and Stagg will improve the side that scored six tries in the second half. The Bulldogs at better than evens appeals.

Wests Tigers (1.92) v Newcastle (2.06)
Campbelltown Stadium, Sunday 3PM AEST

Tigers

Briiliant win in a wet Monday night slog, finally remembering how to defend. Previously they'd averaged over 30 pts per name conceded, but the Storm could only manage six. Enforcer Chris Heighington misses with an ankle injury but Wests played most of last week without him anyway. Fans will know half of the battle for this team is consistency. Which Benji Marshall will turn up?

Knights

Top win over the Dragons last week, making it three wins on the bounce against some decent sides.

Verdict

Both sides have a touch of flair which means we're likely to see plenty of points. It's easy to get excited about the Tigers' win last week but the Knights have the score on the board for several weeks. The home side has lost the last five times these clubs have met. Have to take the visitors here at slightly better than evens.

Penrith (1.95) v Gold Coast (2.0)
CUA Stadium, Monday 7PM AEST

Panthers

The Sydney tote has talked up $130k in five minutes piling on the Panthers this week. Luke Lewis was missed at five-eighth last week and returns to the side. Naturally when I gave Michael Gordon's impeccable kicking last week, he missed one. The Panthers have had a tough draw, they've faced Brisbane, Melbourne, Bulldogs and Manly and held their own - they could just come out and belt a side soon.

Titans

An expected rout of the Raiders last week didn't go to plan, Aaron Cannings didn't suit up and the Raiders didn't allow the Titans to take control. Luke Bailey is a doubt again this week with a knee problem; if he's out, that's both first-choice props gone and the Titans's success has been based on defence rather than attack.

Verdict

Both sides have had ten days to recover from last round's exertion so no advantage there. Penrith's left-sided attack of Jennings and Pritchard will be running at Titans winger Chris Walker who is not known for his defensive skills. The money is on the Panthers this week and where there's smoke, there's fire. The Titans rely heavily on their defence and if Bailey drops out, they lose a key man averaging 115m per game. Watch the team news and be prepared to get on Penrith. Back the Panthers to win anyway, and back them 13+ if Bailey is a casualty.

BETS of the WEEK
Bulldogs to win
Knights to win
Warriors +7.5
Panthers to win (add to win by 13+ if Bailey pulls out for GC)