NBL Basketball / Andy Morris / 18 November 2008 / Leave a comment Bet Now

The match of the season so far sees the top two clash in Auckland, where the Breakers should put an end to the Dragons' run of victories, writes Andy Morris.

The Dragons have put together a sequence of eight successive wins, but expect that to come to an abrupt end when they visit the Breakers.

Ignore the New Zealanders' shock defeat by the 36ers in their last game in Auckland, the Breakers are a formidable team on their home court. Flying trans-Tasman seems to sap the strength of Australian teams, and the Auckland crowd get behind their team to help them.

In previous years the reverse has proved true - when the Breakers play on the road they struggle. But as the last round has shown, they are a real contender this year. They won back-to-back matches at Cairns and Townsville to improve their record to 10-2, just one game behind the Dragons.

No wonder everyone is looking forward to this match-up between teams who have gone a combined 20-5 this season. I'm not writing the Dragons off - their performance last time out against Adelaide, when they held the 36ers to just 44 per cent from the field and induced 28 turnovers, showed them at their best. But the Breakers have the all-round game to upset them, having had five players in double figures against the Crocs including Rick Rickert (32 points) and Kirk Penney (29). So for me, this one will be a home victory.

The Tigers, third placed in the league, are waiting for a slip-up by the top two but must continue to do their part, and have to recover from their two-point defeat at home to the Breakers last time out. They sat out the last round and have had plenty of time to reflect on that loss, ready to respond against the Taipans at Hisense Arena at the start of this round.

The Tigers have a 4-2 home record, whereas Cairns takes a 3-4 road trip record into this one and have averaged 10 percentage points less than the Melbourne franchise. Side with the Tigers in this one.

The Spirit and the 36ers have both improved in recent weeks, so their clash at Sydney Olympic Park should be an attractive one - albeit played in front of the traditional "one man and his dog" Sydney audience.

Adelaide were impressive in beating the Breakers in Auckland in round eight, then beat the Blaze by 12 points on the road last time out. We can forgive them their error-strewn performance against the Dragons in between, and back them to win in Sydney. The Spirit beat Gold Coast by 22 points last time out, but I don't see them as being up to this challenge.

Adelaide won't be thanking the schedulers for giving them two games in two days, with a return from Sydney in between. And I don't give them much chance of toppling the Dragons at the Distinctive Homes Dome in their second match as they are facing a team with a 4-1 road record who in my opinion will be smarting from their defeat in Auckland two days earlier and be desperate to make amends.

It's hard to back the Hawks for their trip to Townsville, based on what happened in the last round. Wollongong were the victims as the Blaze picked up their first road win of the season, by one point, having led by as many as 14 points in the second quarter. On the other hand, the Crocs have lost five straight games and sit next to bottom on the ladder.

This one is probably the toughest game to call in the last few weeks because both teams are struggling to find a win. Though the Hawks are fifth on the ladder they have only won once in five games on the road, so based upon Townsville's reasonable home form overall this season - they are 3-3 as against 1-4 on the road - I will just about give the benefit of the doubt to the Crocs.

The Taipans are also a hesitant choice in their clash with the Wildcats. Cairns has some reasonable home form, having won three of six, while Perth has lost five of eight away matches. It's true that the Wildcats came close to beating the Breakers in New Zealand in round seven, while the Taipans were beaten 93-81 last round by the same team, but home advantage may be enough to see the Taipans take this one. Cairns have after all beaten the Dragons at home this season, albeit in round one.

Tips: Breakers to beat Dragons, Tigers to beat Taipans, 36ers to beat Spirit, Dragons to beat 36ers, Crocodiles to beat Hawks, Taipans to beat Wildcats.