NBL Basketball / Andy Morris / 16 December 2008 / Leave a comment

Attention switches to the battle for the top six when the Adelaide 36ers look to make their move in round 13, writes Andy Morris.

More than half the season has gone and the ladder suggests that the top two are already decided in this year's NBL.

South Dragons and the Breakers have each only lost four games, and the next nearest challengers the Tigers are 20 percentage points behind on the ladder.

So it's time to assess whether the top six are already set in stone. And realistically the only issue to be resolved is whether the Adelaide 36ers can put together a run to climb into a post-season place.

Sydney occupy the sixth spot on the ladder at the moment, on 47.06 per cent, with the 36ers less than three percentage points behind. NBL form would suggest that no other team below Adelaide will contend - the Taipans are next on a 7-12 record and with their money troubles are surely unlikely to improve.

As far as the 36ers are concerned, what they would dearly love as a Christmas present is for them to leapfrog the Spirit by the time they open their presents from Santa.

And that is manageable, as Sydney plays twice this round while Adelaide hopes to pick up a win that could take them to a 9-10 record.

The Spirit will be at pretty long NBL odds to win in Auckland, considering their road record is 2-6 while the Breakers have their eyes on top spot. New Zealand proved themselves vulnerable in front of their own fans when losing by 16 points to the Crocs last time out, but this should be a comfortable win for the Breakers.

Sydney will bring the round to a close when they host the Crocodiles, in a return fixture from the Round 12 clash which saw Townsville get up by five points.

Sydney has a decent home record, with six wins from nine games despite playing in front of a virtually empty house, but I think the key factor will be the scheduling. Townsville plays at South Dragons the night before, and I think this is asking too much of them so I will side with the Spirit here.

Adelaide is hoping to pounce on any slip-ups by the Spirit, and they can do so by beating the Blaze at Distinctive Home Dome. Gold Coast have only won once in nine road trips, so I give them very little chance against what is a decent home team.

The Blaze starts the round when taking on the Hawks, and though I am certain Gold Coast will pick up the wooden spoon this season I think they can win this battle of the cellar dwellers. They have at least won twice at home while the Hawks have just one win out of nine away, and go into the match on a six-game losing skid.

The Taipans are trying to put their money troubles behind them, as they showed with a good nine-point win at the Blaze last time out. Sometimes these situations act as a catalyst to bring the best out of the team as they rally round each other in adversity, and I think they will use that to good effect by beating the Tigers at home. They were only beaten by a single point in Round 10 at Hisense Arena and the Tigers are generally pretty ordinary on the road.

Not great NBL odds in tipping the Dragons to beat the Crocs this round, but at least it's a safe bet. The Dragons take an 8-1 home record into this one, while the Crocs have lost five of eight on the road. It should be a comfortable win for the home team.

Having already outlined the weakness of the Hawks on the road, I am obviously siding with the Tigers in the clash at the State Netball and Hockey Centre. The Tigers might have lost two games going into this round, but the Hawks are easy-beats away from Wollongong.

The Breakers have the coach of the month for November and the player of the month - Kirk Penney, who won in October as well. But they are prone to the odd bad outing as they showed in losing to Townsville last time out. They have only lost once on the road, but I can see defeat no. 2 coming in Perth. The Wildcats are very hard to beat at Challenge Stadium, where they own a 6-2 record, and I think they can edge what could prove the most interesting match of the round.

Tips: Breakers to beat Spirit, Spirit to beat Crocodiles, 36ers to beat Blaze, Blaze to beat Hawks, Taipans to beat Tigers, Dragons to beat Crocodiles, Tigers to beat Hawks, Wildcats to beat Breakers.