NBL Basketball / Andy Morris / 09 December 2008 / Leave a comment Bet Now

The Melbourne Tigers have their eyes on the top two in the NBL, and this is the time they have to begin to make their move, writes Andy Morris.

Winners twice in round one and thus the early leaders, the Tigers' NBL form has been inconsistent then but they find themselves in third place and with the perfect opportunity to prove they can cut it with the big boys.

A home date with South Dragons will show whether they can harbour realistic title ambitions or have to settle for a reasonable season and wonder at what might have been. They lie 16 percentage points behind the second-placed Breakers, who take this round off, and this would be a great point of the season at which to close the gap.

Dragons have been somewhat vulnerable away from home, where they have won only 66% of their matches (six of nine), so the Tigers - owners of a 5-2 home record - will certainly target this as a winable match.

True, the Tigers would have gone into this one with a lot more confidence had they been able to win in Adelaide last time out, but Melbourne tend to be a much better team at home than on the road as they showed in suffering just a narrow two-point loss to the Breakers in round eight. That was in fact their only loss in the last five home games, and they should give the Dragons a real game here.

The question remains, though, can a team that lost by 28 points to the Dragons back in round five - albeit at Hisense Arena - really win this one? And I think not; it should be close but I will side with the Dragons in NBL betting.

The round starts with what should be a very entertaining match between the 36ers and the Crocodiles, who both had good wins last time out.

Neither could boast outstanding NBL form going into the round, but Adelaide had an excellent 102-94 win over the Tigers at Distinctive Homes Dome while the Crocs came up with two solid wins. The five-point home win over Sydney was one thing, but what really set the league talking was the 16-point loss they handed to the Breakers in Auckland.

The Crocs are actually the form team of the league, having won five straight to move to fourth spot on the ladder. It's a remarkable transformation that Trevor Gleeson has brought about in his team, for they were easybeats up to November 22.

Townsville had lost five in a row up to that point, most embarrassingly a nine-point loss on the Gold Coast. But some teams just find a groove, and the Crocs have done that, so now they will be trading at shorter NBL odds. Despite Adelaide having won three of their last four at home, I see the win going the Crocs' way this time and only wish I could be courtside for what I am sure will be an exciting and close match.

It may seem strange to tip a team to lose at home then win on the road three days later, but that's exactly what I'm doing in the case of the 36ers. They have only won twice in eight away games this season, and face a team in the Wildcats who are tough to master on their own court.

However, Adelaide have impressed me recently and they would not surprise me if they made post-season. They go into the round with two successive wins behind them, having played really well against the Tigers where Julius Hodge contributed 21 points and Brad Hill, on just 26 minutes of game time, shot eight from 11 and came up with 19 points.

Perth will feel confident, having already won in Adelaide this season, but something about the 36ers tells me they are capable of taking this one and I'm backing them in NBL betting.

The Taipans should be capable of beating the Blaze, though neither of these sides are going anywhere this season and I wouldn't pay to watch this one. In fact, if forced to choose between watching it on TV or a trip to the dentists, I would take the filling every time. The Blaze will have some confidence based on their win over the Wildcats last time out but Cairns, at 3-6, have a better road record than the home record of the Blaze (2-6) and I will side with them without any great confidence.

The most straightforward tipping task of the week is to side with the Crocs at home to the Hawks. Wollongong have lost seven of eight matches on the road this season while the Crocs are 6-3 at home and should win this one by a double-digit margin.

Dragons to beat Tigers, Crocodiles to beat 36ers, 36ers to beat Wildcats, Taipans to beat Blaze, Crocs to beat Hawks.