NBL Basketball / Andy Morris / 26 November 2008 / Leave a comment Bet Now

Nobody will be getting too rich from backing the Dragons or the Breakers at the moment, but they should be good for four pay days this round, writes Andy Morris.

There has been a breakaway in the NBL after 10 rounds, and the Dragons and Breakers are now locked on 11-3 records with the rest well behind. The Tigers are third placed but have a win record that is 12 percentage points behind the co-leaders.

And there should be no way that any of the four opponents faced by the leaders will pull off a surprise this round. Trust me, I feel in form at the moment, with 10 winning selections out of the 13 bets in the last two rounds. That gives me a 77 percent success rate in the last fortnight, which would keep me just about on terms with the Dragons and Breakers. OK, they've kept it up all season and I haven't, but we'll gloss over that if you don't mind.

The Dragons are surely a lock-in against the Taipans at home, with Cairns having lost five times on their eight road trips so far this season. The Taipans did beat the Dragons in the opening game of the season, but that was at home and a lot of water has passed under the bridge since then. Take the Dragons, who are 6-1 at home this year, with confidence in this meeting.

The only possible upset for the top two will come next night when the Breakers host the Wildcats in Auckland. Perth have won four times on the road this year, at the Tigers, Crocodiles, 36ers and Taipans. They came within four points of the Breakers back in round seven in New Zealand - in a contentious match that resulted in a fine for Perth coach Conner Henry after he labelled the referees "three blind mice" - and will keep the scores close again, but I'm siding with the Breakers.

The Dragons go to the Spirit later in the round, where they encounter a team that somehow manages to keep up a positive record at home despite the absence of any sort of a crowd. Sydney are 5-3 at home this year, one of those losses coming to the Dragons by 106-101. Interestingly they were able to rouse themselves in the fourth quarter that night, winning that period by nine points to bring themselves back into a match which seemed to have got away from them early when they lost the opening quarter 36-29. Even if they can come up with a big quarter again, though, I still think the Dragons will be too good overall.

Rounding off the week for the top two will be another comfortable win for the Breakers, this time away to the Blaze. Gold Coast have only won once in six home games, and this will not be their night as the New Zealand franchise will win to keep pace with the Dragons and potentially open up a bigger gap over the rest.

If you take away the two defeats to the Breakers, Townsville have a pretty good home record, with four wins and just one defeat. So they will take plenty of confidence into their meeting with the third-placed Tigers to open the round, particularly as it comes just days after a 121-113 win over the Hawks at the Townsville Entertainment Centre. The Tigers are the only team apart from the top two to boast an away record over 50 percent. But two of those wins came over the Spirit, so I won't be getting too carried away with it, and I expect the Crocs to win this one.

The Hawks are an awful team on the road and it is only their 5-2 home form that has seen them climb as high as fifth place on the ladder. Wollongong's only road win came by two points over the Taipans in round seven, and I don't see them picking up another win when they travel to Adelaide. The 36ers might be next to bottom on the ladder but they boast a 3-3 home record. Admittedly two of those wins came against the Spirit, but they should have just enough to see off the Hawks - though this is the most tentative selection of the round.

The Crocodiles are a team to back only if they are in Townsville. They have only won once on the road so far, and they are best avoided in their match-up with rivals Cairns. The Taipans have lost four in a row but they will have the crowd to gee them up for this one and I see them as the team to back.

Tips: Dragons to beat Taipans, Breakers to beat Wildcats, Dragons to beat Spirit, Breakers to beat Blaze, Crocodiles to beat Tigers, 36ers to beat Hawks, Taipans to beat Crocodiles.