Motor Sport / David Croft / 12 September 2010 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

Are the Red Bulls bluffing or will this race really be a case of damage limitation? Which of the two Ferrari drivers would you rather side with? Who should you back to go on and win the race? David Croft has all the answers ahead of a huge race in the context of the season..

In the build up to this week's race Red Bull have gone to great lengths to tell the world that they're not expecting much from the Italian Grand Prix. Monza is not only beautiful and historic but unique in terms of what is needed from the car to propel the driver to victory.

The 3.6 mile long lap features a series of straights with three chicanes that need to be attacked to get the maximum, the two left hand Lesmo corners and the long Parabolica to finish with. That means that the medium and high speed corners that Red Bull excel in just aren't there for the team to take the benefit from this weekend. The Italian Grand Prix for them is all about damage limitation and not losing too much ground before they get to Singapore, a track that they should go well on.

So surprise, surprise, who's fastest from the Friday practice sessions? Sebastian Vettel, that's who. Could they have been bluffing then? Do they have as good a chance here after all?

Don't be fooled. Yes it was a productive day for sure, but I'm not about to start shouting about red Bull's chances from the highest tree here in the Royal Park. They can take plenty of positives but as for a realistic chance of winning the race, I'm not convinced.

Watching the action out on the track today it was clear that McLaren were strong from the off. What clouded the issue a little was their afternoon programme that saw both Lewis Hamilton and Jenson Button running different set-ups on their cars. Button had the f-duct, where the rear wing stalls to improve top speed, Hamilton didn't. Interestingly though, Hamilton was a shade quicker without it. In the morning when both cars were running with the f-duct, Button was the faster of the two. What that may mean is that Button prefers the stability that the f-duct provides. Especially under braking and Monza has some pretty hefty braking zones. I can easily see him running it for the rest of the weekend with Hamilton, who is happier when the car is sliding under him, taking it off. If that's the case then I think both drivers will be very easily matched. The fact that McLaren didn't finish with the fastest time in the afternoon session can also be easily explained by the fact that they went for their first run on the quicker option tyres, half an hour before their rivals. When Red Bull and Ferrari went for it the track was a little faster and the times were coming down across the board.

It would also make sense for McLaren not to totally show their hand at this stage. They know they'll be competitive and if that's the case, why show the rest just how fast you can be at this stage?

For me this should be McLaren's weekend and their main competition could come from Ferrari rather than Red Bull. Both Felipe Massa and Fernando Alonso put in some decent times in the afternoon; Massa could have been quickest but lost grip round the Parabolica when following Michael Schumacher and his good work was ruined by a trip into the gravel.

Alonso, racing in front of the Tifosi for the first time as a Ferrari driver, ended up with the 2nd fastest time, a fraction slower than Vettel and once again it's possible that he was showing his hand completely at this stage. If you're going with a Ferrari driver though, isn't it best to side with Alonso, especially given the events of the German Grand Prix, the fall out from which has dominated paddock talk here in Italy?

Given that in 12 out of 13 qualifying sessions this season Red Bull have taken pole it would be a major shock not to see them head the field here in Monza. However I'm prepared for the shock and a Hamilton pole followed by the win could be on the cards. Saying that, this is where Jenson Button (should he still have aspirations of successfully defending his title) needs to start moving and if the car is set up how he likes, then he may well do just that.

So I'm going to split the two Mclaren boys and even on a track where pole has taken the win on seven out of the last 10 races. I think that Button can beat Hamilton even if, as I expect he will, Hamilton takes pole. The key will be the pace that Button, a man we know preserves the life of his tyres, can extract towards the end of his stints. It's been a good Friday for Red Bull but from what I've seen so far, I think they were right, this could still be all about damage limitation come the race on Sunday

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