Motor Sport / David Croft / 27 June 2010 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

Vettel and Webber roared back in fine style with a one-two grid placements after qualifying but that's no guarantee of success, says our man in Valencia, David Croft.

Unsurprisingly it's been impossible to avoid the World Cup in the F1 Paddock this week. Drivers have introduced new helmets to help cheer their respective countries on, Nico Rosberg has gone as far as getting some new racing boots made for him to mark the Germany/England clash. Very nice they are too, although I hear that they may be taking a trip into the harbour should England triumph in Bloemfontein, with their owner still attached.

It might provide a little bit of light relief for both Rosberg, his team mate Michael Schumacher, and the whole of the Mercedes team who were baffled as to why they have gone backwards in terms of pace as this weekend has gone on. To have one car fail to make the top 10 is costly, but on a track where overtaking is notoriously difficult, to have both a long way down the grid is disastrous. Unless we get a safety car or a few retirements, and that would buck the historical trend, their chances of even scoring a point look slim from 12th and 15th.

In the previous two races here we've had five overtaking passes, four in 2008 and one in 2009, and no safety car. Those are unusual numbers for a street circuit and depressing for those of us who have had to watch the previous two European Grand Prix here in Valencia.

So for those who have already placed their faith in a Red Bull revival, after the recent success for McLaren, you'll be smiling sweeter than chocolate birthday cake after qualifying. It was close, and had Lewis Hamilton not locked up his rear tyres on his final flying lap, it would have been closer. But in the end a mere seven one hundreds of a second separated Sebastian Vettel and Mark Webber at the top. There was nothing in it and that's the nature of the game, someone always has to come out on top. But Mark Webber had a face like Aussie thunder as he got out of the car and his mood hadn't improved much an hour later.

Should that carry on into race day a repeat of Turkey may well be on the cards. Both drivers say they've learnt from the crash that cost them first and second in Istanbul but stress to that as racing drivers they will always fight hard. If that's the case then could Mark try and muscle his way through into the very tight second corner, knowing all too well that he has to get at Sebastian early, otherwise his chance to win will have disappeared. We've seen already this weekend that some drivers can be a little too desperate going into that corner and I'd be stunned if we don't get one or two coming together. Not necessarily the two Red Bull drivers but the potential is certainly there.

Interestingly Hamilton was as cheery as a young man skipping through the apple blossom in springtime and he was the one who made the big mistake in qualifying. He knows however that with McLaren saving their next big upgrade for Silverstone, pole position wasn't really a realistic expectation. Once again however he fared better than his team mate Jenson Button who lines up seventh on the grid. The defending champion acknowledged that an error at the final turn cost him time but last year he lined up fifth here and finished only seventh when he became boxed in at the start. He should be too fast for the Williams behind him when the lights go out but will do well to finish any higher than his grid position given that Kubica in the Renault looks very handy on this type of circuit and the Ferraris of Felipe Massa and Fernando Alonso look a much better prospect in their new upgraded cars.

So for Sunday's race Sebastian Vettel at [1.93] for the win with Betfair looks, on paper, to be a great bet. However, bear in mind the threat that Webber will carry going into the first couple of corners and that Sebastian knows now that his team mate will not concede an inch and he may be slightly more cautious than before the crash in Istanbul. Bear in mind also that the race pace of the Mclaren has been strong all season and that Alonso won't be too far away either. So at [6.2] for Webber to win or [5.9] for Hamilton or [8.8] for Alonso better value is there to be had should the race be a little less straight forward than we've had in the past.

My theory is that after two less than impressive races in Valencia we're in for a third time lucky scenario and that Hamilton, lying in wait for the Bulls to blow it, is excellent value and very handily placed.

Maybe I'm just hoping that whatever the situation England will beat Germany on Sunday 27th June 2010, but I've just got a sneaky feeling for the British driver.