Motor Sport / David Croft / 19 April 2010 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

Sebastian Vettel is in pole position in more ways than one but it's worth remembering no-one has won this season from the front of the grid, believes David Croft.

The expectancy was that this would be a close qualifying session. One where maybe McLaren or Mercedes, or even Fernando Alonso in the Ferrari could mount a serious challenge to the dominance of the Red Bulls. In the end Vettel and Webber made a mockery of that particular thought and picked up their second one-two of the season.

In which case, you're probably thinking, it's time to lump onto Sebastian. He won here in imperious style last year, surely he'll pick up another winner's trophy in Shanghai in 2010? Which you couldn't be blamed for thinking but think again for a minute. How many times has the man on pole won in 2010? Once, twice, three times? No, it's none, and whilst runs have to come to an end at some stage, Sebastian was talking about when, no if, the rain will arrive for the race. Rain is always bad for the man on pole, even if you are Sebastian Vettel.

He wants it boring, processional and dull. With rain we get excitement, accidents and safety cars which concertina the field together, reducing the leader's advantage. Now if it rains like it did in 2009 and the race starts behind the safety car then that's not a bad thing. Vettel will have a decent advantage going into the first corner, unless Mark Webber doesn't get backed up and squeezed by his team mate through the final turn. If the rain is slightly less intense then Vettel will have to watch out under braking into that first turn for someone appearing through the spray, maybe past him, maybe into him. Certainly Webber will be attacking and probably Alonso from the second row. Behind that the McLarens of Jenson Button and Lewis Hamilton, mystified as to where their pace went in the final part of qualifying, will both have the chance to improve on 5th and 6th in a wet race.

Last year in Shanghai we had a grand total of 60 overtaking passes, the sort of number that you'd have to wait 60 seasons to reach in Bahrain. We may get more in a wet race on Sunday. Remember that the cars will be much heavier on Sunday than they were in 2009, therefore more difficult to control, almost impossible to handle in the early stages. That leads to more incidents on a track where overtaking isn't limited to one particular place. So the drivers will have to be as watchful and careful as they are quick. This could be a classic, especially if the track dries out half way through as well. Remember Australia? How one smartly timed tyre change won the race for Jenson Button. That could well happen again, especially as in 2010 it's the cars that stop first to change their tyres that have an overall strategic advantage.

Button had nothing to lose by coming in when he did in Melbourne. For Vettel, who was leading that race at the time, it was a no brainer to stay out as he had the most to lose by getting it wrong. As it was he made the choice and came in for slicks in time to stay out in front. But had Button been a little nearer to the leader it may have been a different story.

So there are plenty of variables that will affect the race. If it's dry there will be less and for me Mark Webber or Fernando Alonso have to get into the lead by the end of the first series of corners otherwise it will be too late. Alonso showed in Bahrain that he can execute that move very well indeed. He did it to Felipe Massa and instantly made his mark in that Ferrari team. My feeling is that in China he'll be too quick off the line for Webber and might just be able to squeeze alongside Vettel to become a real menace. The neutrals out there will hope so, otherwise in the dry Vettel should have it wrapped up.

So for me it's a race where you have to look at the skies overhead before you put your money where your mouth is. Sebastian Vettel has a great chance to become the first guy on pole to go on and win a race this year if it's dry. Alonso has plenty to do and is good enough, he might just need the door to be left a little ajar by the Red Bull driver to get him into the lead though.

If it's wet then of course Vettel's still in a brilliant position but for me Alonso will have a much more improved chance of making a move stick and getting ahead. The Spaniard is on top of his game, excellent in the wet and at a better price, well worth a look. The rain for the man from Spain may not necessarily be a pain if you catch my drift. And if anyone could stop two charging Bull's it's a Spaniard, yes?