Motor Sport / David Croft / 29 August 2010 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

Forecast rain at Formula One's best track will make for the toughest of tests - great news, believes David Croft.

Hands up then - who's missed Formula 1? I've got both hands in the air at the moment and why not? This has been a brilliant season so far. So I'm not really sure why a three week break was necessary to recharge the batteries ahead of the final stretch. It has been a very long three weeks without any action.

So the sound of the V8 engine's reverberating around the Ardennes Forest this morning was especially sweet given the lull over the summer break.

What was a shame however was that the rain - and believe me there was plenty of it - rather curtailed a lot of the running. Not that what we saw wasn't a decent indication of what might come over the rest of the weekend. The forecast looks like we could well get more showers before we pack up and move on to Monza.

But before then there are questions to be asked. Will Red Bull carry on where they left off in Hungary? Are Ferrari in a better position to challenge for the win? Or can McLaren spring a surprise on a track which should suit their car a whole lot better?

Three vital questions for all punters to consider, so here goes the theory for you.

Spa, aside from being a spectacular track in a beautiful part of the world, is a circuit that demands different characteristics from the cars depending on where you are at that moment. In sectors one and three (the run from the start down through Eau Rouge and up to Les Combes and then from Stavelot at the bottom of the valley up and through Blanchimont to the finish line) you need speed and an efficient f-duct to reduce drag. For the middle sector you need plenty of downforce to help keep the speed through the fast corner at Pouhon and Fagnes. So who goes best where? In theory it should be Red Bull's middle sector where they'll be too hot to handle with Ferrari following behind whilst in sectors one and two McLaren with the Mercedes engine and the best f-duct should be the strongest team.

Now given that most overtaking happens in sectors one and two you might just deduce that McLaren could be very good value for some success this weekend. And if you did think that, I'm not about to disagree with you.

In fact given the likelihood of rain as well I'm amazed that Jenson Button is trading as high as [14.5]. Remember Australia? Remember China? Who made the best of the conditions and won both races? The defending world champion, that's who. He hasn't got the best of records at Spa (five retirements in eight starts) but in the rain in 2010 he could well make amends for that.

But Button won't have it easy and it's no surprise to me to see that Fernando Alonso has been the man to catch so far. Quickest in the wet in the morning and in the changeable conditions during the afternoon as he set the fastest time, albeit enjoying a clear track ahead of him on his final flying lap. What did stand out was the way in which he pulled out a half a second advantage over his team mate Felipe Massa in the middle sector, the part of the track where you would expect the Ferrari to be strong given the development strides they've made in recent races.

One last thing and bearing in mind that I'm expecting rain for Sunday's race, then expect Michael Schumacher to make up plenty of places from wherever he manages to qualify. The German, rightly so, has a ten place grid penalty for nearly shoving Rubens Barichello into the wall in Hungary, so chances are that's he going to start around P17/P18. Even so the six-time former winner here he can be relied upon to give it everything and I wouldn't be at all surprised if he comes home inside the Top 10 to score points. Betfair's points finish market has him at [3.8] to do so.

So here's my three selections for the race on Sunday:
Michael Schumacher at [3.8] to finish in the points
Jenson Button to win the Belgian Grand Prix at [14.5]
Fernando Alonso to win the Belgian Grand Prix at [3.5]