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He gets in with the same weight here (a hefty 59kg but as the winner of over $480,000 he has earned it) and he is one of Australia's most versatile gallopers - able to win over 1400m when his previous run was the Von Doussa Steeplechase! No reason why, from a better gate this week (three here, 11 last week) he can't win again.

Gold Salute on the other hand has drawn horribly in 19. There can be no doubting the strength of his recent form though, the tough five-year-old winning his last two at Flemington in determined style. The concern for him - as well as the luck he'll need from the gate - is the last 200m as he is yet to win at the mile.

Another in-form galloper is Davcon who justified his short quote winning at Moonee Valley a couple of weeks ago. He is proven at the trip and is capable on any sort of going.

Famous Roman wasn't far away in the Sand Sweeper heat and the former WA galloper strips for three encouraging Melbourne runs. He is twice a stakes winner fourth up and he looks nicely primed for the 1600m.

Also catching the eye behind Sand Sweeper was O'Reilly's Clock who is already a mile winner at HQ. It has been a little while since he last saluted but his last two runs have been excellent and if there is pace on he can finish all over the top of them.

Just in front of him last week was Tictacs who railed home strongly over the final stages. He is yet to be tried at the 1600m but is bred for a trip and a win is not far away.

Likely to give a bold sight - and get on if there is any bias to leaders - is the pacy Woodwin. He is racing in career best form of late and, providing he can get across without working too hard from barrier 14, he will be hard to run down.

A winner of a Ballarat heat is The Fonz who finished hard from a long way back on heavy going. He probably needs a bit of rain to show his best but the 1600m is his pet trip and he is flying.

Imported mare Ghostmilk was only just pipped by The Fonz and she too has strong claims here - if conditions suit. For her it is a case of the wetter the better.

Emergency Just Say Sumthink should not be overlooked. She was in great form before an unlucky run behind Sand Sweeper. Beaten only 2.6 lengths, she had very little room in the run home.

Benelli was only just beaten by Gold Salute in a heat two starts back and upon stepping up to the 1600m at Sandown last start was too strong for a handy field (Davcon third).

So lots of chances which makes this a terrific betting race. Suggest you have two or three bets, checking out which of the main chances looks the best value close to the race. If it rains, include The Fonz and if the emergency sneaks a run don't dismiss her.

The Rivette Series Final for three-year-old fillies is another interesting race. Most of these girls boast consistent form and a couple worth keeping an eye on who may be decent odds are Blue Sky Girl and Arms Wide Open. Both were out of the placings at their most recent outings, but neither had a lot of luck.

Another three-year-old feature is the Silver Bowl Series Final. Have to like the way Red Hustler has been finding the line and Cascabel looks ready for the 1600m. Distant Ruler is a good looking horse who fights on strongly.

The staying race is the Banjo Paterson Series Final and this is another race with good depth. Look for those who can definitely run a trip - such as the in-form Elmore and the two times Flemington winner Grand Destiny. Doosra Diamond can improve after racing wide last time and He's Something has to be a big chance after an unlucky fifth here last week.

The speedsters are catered for in the All Victorian Sprint Series Final. Gran Sasso is in career best form and shooting for a hat-trick whilst his conqueror here in mid-May - Midnight Mustang has been freshened. And he races extra well that way.

Every year you hear and read so-called experts discussing previous results between players when in reality what goes on the rest of the year bears little relationship to the very short season in England. Yes, of course the best players will be the best players on any surface. But when it gets to the big games at the end of it then the ability to deal with the different bounce of the ball, and the incredible speed it leaves the surface, becomes the defining factor.

All of that brings us to Tommy Haas, not surprisingly a long shot at odds of [10.0] to shock Wimbledon legend Roger Federer in tomorrow's semi-final. While everybody is getting excited about whether Andy Murray can be the first Brit since Fred Perry to reach a men's singles final, it's taken as a given that if he does get there Federer will be his opponent. Don't be so sure.

Haas has now put together an unbroken run of 10 victories on the surface and his fairly comfortable quarter-final win over world number four Novak Djokovic underlined the improvement the 31-year-old has made this year. Certainly Djokovic reckons Federer could very easily be dumped on his Haas.

"I think he has a good chance if he serves well," said the Serb after his defeat. "He's a very aggressive player and just needs to keep his consistency. I think he's a perfect player for this surface."

While Federer's Wimbledon record - and come to that his record everywhere else - is long and glorious, Haas himself has a fairly miserable history at SW19. But he's got his excuses.

"I always felt, deep down, that Wimbledon had something left for me," he told today's papers. "There's been a lot of bad luck before.

"When I was seeded three my parents were involved in a really bad motorcycle accident so I skipped a year. Then I stepped on a ball in the warm-up when I felt I had a decent draw. I've lost on three tie-breaks against Wayne Arthurs, and 9-7 in the fifth set to Marc Rosset. But whatever happens, happens for a reason, and I always felt there was something left for me on grass."

Could that be this year? Haas came within two games of knocking out Federer in the French Open and will be an even tougher prospect for the Swiss master on this surface. If you think backing the German for the win is too much of a longshot, then laying the [1.8] for Federer to triumph in straight sets looks sensational value.

Five things you might not know about Tommy Haas

1. Born in 1978 in Hamburg, when he was two years old he picked up a plank of wood and started hitting a ball against the wall at his home.

2. About that time his father Peter started taking him to the tennis club where he worked and the young Tommy spent all day with racquet and ball - at the age of five he won his first tournament.

3. At the age of 13 he moved to the Nick Bollettieri academy in Florida after being offered a free place.

4. Despite reaching number two in the world at one time, he's only ever won one Masters series tournament, in Stuttgart in 2001.

5. He was at the centre of a scandal when he was forced to miss the 2007 Davis Cup tie against Russia through a stomach virus and there were claims he'd been poisoned. The ITF ultimately ruled there was no evidence to support that.

Huracan, who have won their last five games are unbeaten in nine, need just a point to claim their first title ([1.57] to do so) since winning the Metropolitano under Cesar Luis Menotti
back in 1973.

Menotti's influence is still strong in Parque Patricios. His philosophy of fluent, enterprising football sits well with the club named after the Mayan god of the hurricane. Their present coach, Angel Cappa, served as Menotti's assistant at Barcelona, Penarol and Boca Juniors in the eighties, before working with that other great advocate of footballing adventure, Jorge Valdano, at Tenerife and Real Madrid in the nineties.

Cappa's previous record was somewhat modest but at Huracan he found an ambitious young squad that he has moulded into a mesmerising attacking unit. They have kept clean sheets in their last two games, but that is uncharacteristic: that they have conceded five goals more
than Velez in the clausura is telling, but still doesn't give the full picture of just how open they often are.

The strength of the side is the twin-playmaking axis of Javier Pastore and Matias de Federico. Pastore is 20, De Federico 19: both are supremely technically gifted, and they work devastatingly well as a pairing - De Federico the darting dribbler; Pastore the more cerebral and visionary - operating in the space created for them by big centre-forward Federico Nieto.

Velez had seemed to be running away with the title as they won four in a row in April, but three games without a victory at the beginning of May allowed the pack to close in, and they finally lost the top spot they had held almost since February last week, when they were held to
a 1-1 draw by Lanus.

They have the best defensive record in the league (although 13 conceded in 18 games is hardly stingy by European standards). Emiliano Papa, on the left, has excelled, earning a call-up to the national side, while the main goal threat comes from the experienced Uruguayan
Hernan Lopez and the 20-year-old Jonathan Cristaldo, another of the fleet of young Argentinian technicians who would speak of a glorious future if only they could find anything resembling a defence.

Exciting it undoubtedly is, and those jaded by the domination of the Big Four in England must look in wonder at a league so competitive that none of the three teams who finished joint top of the season's opening half were in contention by the final week of the second (if
Argentina had a western European-style season, and you added the two halves together Lanus would have been champions by some distance - but then, Boca and San Lorenzo may not have looked quite so disinterested in the latter stages).

But there are those who wonder whether it is good for Argentinian football. Estudiantes beat Nacional of Uruguay last night to reach the Copa Libertadores final (they are [2.04] to beat either Cruzeiro [1.15] or Gremio [3.1] in the final - the second leg of that semi is played
tonight, with Cruzeiro holding a 3-1 first-leg lead], but in general this was a deeply disappointing year for Argentinian clubs. The national side flounders in World Cup qualification (although they
remain at just [7.0] to win the finals next summer), for all the quality of its attacking midfielders - and their strength is reflected in Huracan's. For breathtaking as Leo Messi, Kun Aguero and Carlos Tevez can be, their ability is meaningless without a defensve platform.

Aregntinian league football is brilliant to watch because it is attacking and unpredictable, packed with creators and forwards. What it seems not to be producing at the moment, though, is good goalkeepers or good defenders.

Just look at the national team, where Diego Maradona has been unable to settle on a goalkeeper, and where Gabriel Heinze and Javier Zanetti, both well past their peaks, continue to be first choices at the back. The corollary of that is that the good strikers who are produced are not rigorously tested until they move on to Europe.

Still, none of that will matter on Sunday evening as Argentina enjoys another grand finale.

The Lions have come away from the Rainbow Nation four times without a win, but on each occasion, they scraped at least one draw. It is a record that most Lions fans will be clinging on to this week ahead of the third and final confrontation in Johannesburg.

All the pre-match hype has focused on the Lions' anger at Schalk Burger's eye-gouging incident, but if punters were to look through the red mist, they would see that the tourists' cupboard is threadbare. The Lions' luck with injuries and suspensions has been appalling, and the count now stands at 11 of the original 37-man party who are unavailable. Moreover, the latest injuries to the Lions could not have had a bigger impact on their chances of salvaging any pride from this tour at Ellis Park.

Losing Welsh props Adam Jones and Gethin Jenkins is a catastrophe. If you look at the two Tests played so far, Jones and Jenkins were playing in tandem from the 44th minute of the Durban Test until the 45th minute of the violent clash at Loftus Versfeld last week. The forward platform that they helped create saw the Lions win that period of the series by 30 points to 15.

It is going to be a significant challenge for Phil Vickery, who is still suffering from a throat infection, if he is to front-up successfully against Tendai Mtawarira, the South African prop who gave him such a beasting in Durban. It is a test that even Graham Rowntree, the Lions forwards coach, is unsure about.

He said: "It'll be a huge psychological challenge for Phil after what happened in the first Test. He will have to pick up technically and emotionally."

The concussion to Brian O'Driscoll and the wrist injury to Jamie Roberts is also a severe blow. O'Driscoll and Roberts have been consistently the Lions' most potent attacking weapon. The Irishman also plays a key role in Shaun Edwards' umbrella defensive system, acting as a blitz defender, a task which O'Driscoll goes about with the gusto of a blind-side flanker.

These injuries have therefore ripped the heart out of the Lions. It would have been horrible enough if this situation had occurred before the first Test, when the tourists were full of optimism and momentum. But the Lions come into this final game on the back of a heart-breaking 28-25 loss. Captain Paul O'Connell admitted on Tuesday that it was difficult to motivate the players after that Loftus defeat. Even the most jovial and positive tourist, Ian McGeechan, could not remember a time when he felt as sad as he did after the Springboks pinched it in Pretoria.

To top it all off, the British media seem to have ignored the significant fact that the hosts are seething as well. The ridiculous posturing of Springbok coach Peter de Villiers aside, the South African's are smarting from the fact that their glorious series victory has been completely overshadowed by Burger's five seconds of madness.

There is a huge feeling of resentment in the Bok camp that they have not been given credit where credit is due.

Gary Gold, the Springbok assistant coach, who can string a sentence together without the moronic ramblings of de Villiers, said: "We worked really hard to beat what we thought was a world class Lions team, and we don't really feel that we have received enough credit for that.

"Winning this series was an extremely tough challenge for us, and some of the players felt it was as tough as anything they have ever experienced on the rugby field. To come back with 20 minutes to go like we did in the test in Pretoria was an amazing achievement and one we should be proud of."

If any doubts remain about just how motivated the Springboks are for this, then it pays to listen to how Gold signed off.

"I think there was a lot of expectation ahead of the series, and when we dominated the first hour of the Durban Test I suppose we should have pushed on to win by 30 to 40 points.
"And I agree that for much of the Pretoria test we were outplayed and made a lot of mistakes. There is a lot of incentive for us to win this series 3-0, however, and that is what we are aiming to do."

I completely understand where Betfair layers are coming from in offering up the Springboks at [1.41]. Two Tests and two narrow defeats within the handicap indicate that the Lions have been underrated. But this is a different challenge, with a thoroughly weaker team. And if anything, the changes that de Villiers has made makes the home side stronger in all the right positions.

Gone is Ruan Pienaar, who missed numerous opportunities at goal last weekend. Gone also are centres Jean de Villiers and Adrian Jacobs who looked defensively frail against O'Driscoll and Roberts. In their places slots in the thoroughly reliable fly-half Morne Steyn, who kicked the winner last week, and Jaque Fourie and Wynand Olivier combine to create a centre pairing that was devastating throughout 2006 and 2007.

It's whitewash time and I'm backing the Springboks by more than 12.5 points at [2.54].

On the strength of how they have dominated the home and away season over the past two seasons, you'd have to pick the Cats, but St Kilda have been very impressive this season.

They also go into the clash with a full strength team, whereas Geelong has lost defender David Johnson to a strained calf and ruckman Brad Ottens is still out.

The Cats have now put together the most successful period in VFL/AFL history, having won 55 of their past 58 games.

The Saints have the best defence in the AFL while few would dispute that the Cats' forward line is the best in the business. It boils down to who will produce their best form on the day, and you get the feeling that the Cats have something in reserve for this one.

They have beaten the Saints in their last three meetings and perhaps have not reached their full potential yet, but this is the time they can put it all together, so it is worth backing them in match odds betting.

Sydney should be able to shake off North Melbourne at the SCG, even without the suspended Barry Hall. They have a few players facing fitness tests, while the Kangaroos could get a few players back this week.

Three losses have made things shaky for the Swans, but the Kangaroos themselves have lost four straight and should be laid in match odds betting here.

The Western Bulldogs can dent Hawthorn's prospects of defending their premiership even further by beating them at Etihad Stadium.

Though they will be without star Daniel Giansiracusa and may lose Stephen Tiller, Hawthorn have their own injury worries. The Bulldogs have won six of their past seven matches by an average of just over 44 points, while the Hawks are in danger of missing the finals and will not be good enough here. Go with the Bulldogs in match odds betting.

Port Adelaide have some of their top names on the sidelines, including Daniel Motlop and Chad Cornes, and their absences could hurt them against Brisbane.

Port has lost four of its past five games, including a 93-point thrashing by the Western Bulldogs. Meanwhile Brisbane is gunning for the top four after winning three of their last four games, and should be backed in match odds betting here.

Melbourne face another dismal week in a poor season. Just one win so far in 13 matches, and they face West Coast Eagles at the MCG with a number of players in line for fitness tests. The Eagles themselves have been disappointing, but they beat Hawthorn last week and should be good enough, so back them in match odds betting.

Richmond have been up and down over the past month, with high points in the wins over Fremantle and West Coast but setbacks elsewhere. They face Adelaide at Carrara knowing that their opponents will be boosted by the return of Brent reilly and Brett Burton.

The Crows won't be letting their focus slide from this one, they have their sights set on the top four and should be backed in match odds betting here.

Collingwood looks for its sixth straight win as it takes on Essendon at the MCG. The Bombers have won two in a row, including a good effort in demolishing Carlton. But the Pies are the obvious choice here, they can be backed with some confidence in match odds betting.

Fremantle have been poor this season, and having lost Matthew Pavlich to a calf injury they must be opposed in match odds betting against Carlton at Subiaco.

BRONCOS

With the Origin series effectively done and dusted and the swine flu pandemic diminishing, perhaps we might start to see a more settled Broncos line-up. This week they regain Folau and Hodges after injury, while Kenny heads the other way through the medical room turnstiles and Peter Wallace plays despite a continuing rib problem. The big media story this week has been the return of big Tonie Carroll to the club, providing added support off the bench to the forward pack. Brisbane have missed too many tackles all year, taking some pressure off them is a good move. The last three times Brisbane have scored the first try, they've won.

WARRIORS
Two home wins have given some hope to Warriors' fans, but their away form is dire - just one win (Rd 2) and one draw (Rd 7) to show for their travels. Sam Ropati moves into the number three jersey replacing Patrick Ah Van in the only change from last week's loss to the Titans. A Warriors penalty goal has been the first scoring play in four of their past eight matches.

VERDICT
Brisbane won this clash 26-10 at Mt.Smart early in the year, but have since fallen down the rankings. Dropping outside the eight for the first time won't go down well at Broncos HQ. Half of Brisbane's eight wins this season have been by 11pts or more and the Warriors' away form is poor - so the line looks attractive... but can you really back a team that has lost four in a row, giving away that start?

ST.GEORGE-ILLAWARRA (1.27) v ROOSTERS (4.5) +12.5
WIN Jubilee Oval, Friday 1935

DRAGONS
The combine continue on their merry way with just two narrow losses in their past nine outings, however critics will say that they haven't faced much quality in that run. You can only beat the team that lines up against you, and top against bottom is unlikely to make this a harder test. Prop Michael Weyman has been ruled out for six weeks with an ankle injury.

ROOSTERS
Within sight of getting off the bottom of the table, the Roosters recorded a good 19-12 win over the Sharks last week, and then lost all the momentum with yet another off-field alcohol-fuelled incident. After six consecutive losses, it was a welcome return to form, and the signs in previous weeks had been evident.

VERDICT
Top versus bottom at the den of the competition's best. One key player out won't make too much difference to a side packed full of quality, the Dragons average 10 more points per game than the Roosters and won this clash 29-0 in Round 7. The kicking game of Soward could really tear the Roosters apart. St.George-Illawarra 13+.

SOUTH SYDNEY (1.9) v WESTS TIGERS (2.1) +1.5
ANZ Stadium, Saturday 1730

RABBITOHS
A boost for the Bunnies this week with Wing returning to the squad after missing Monday night with a hamstring problem. Monday night's effort was patchy - a great first half was negated by a lapse in concentration and the Knights soon put the game away. Two tries in the closing minutes made the scoreline look healthier, but the horse had long since bolted.

TIGERS
Six losses in seven has the Tigers languishing within a game of the dreaded bottom. Losing by 11 pts to the Dragons last week doesn't sound so bad until you realise that the Dragons, with four tired Origin players versus one for Wests, put the cue in the rack at half-time and repelled almost every Tigers' move with barely a sweat. Coach Sheens has decided to shuffle the deckchairs to find some form, with Marshall switching from halfback to five-eighth, fullback Moltzen moves to halfback and Gallant takes over at fullback.

VERDICT
Back in Rd 10, the Rabbitohs won this clash at the SCG by one point. Wests have a three-day recovery advantage over Souths (Friday to Saturday vs Monday to Saturday) and more often than not, that makes a considerable difference. The Tigers have beaten the Rabbitohs twice at ANZ Stadium, I'm expecting that to increase to three. Wests Tigers to win.

NORTH QLD (1.3) v CRONULLA (4.2) +13.5
Dairy Farmers Stadium, Saturday 1930

COWBOYS
Three key inclusions for the Cowboys this week, with Bowen, O'Donnell and Webb all named in the starting line-up. Despite the distraction of rep season, the Cowboys have been in tremendous form with away losses to the Bulldogs and St.George-Illawarra as their only blemishes in seven matches. Five wins in a row at home makes Dairy Farmers Stadium into the fortress the locals love.

SHARKS
Four wins in a row wasn't enough to get the Sharks over the line last week against wooden spoon contenders, the Roosters, with Barrett out and Gallen severely hampered by injury. Neither is named this week, making a tough road trip almost impossible. Adding to the club's woes is yet another off-field incident which has to affect morale, even if Seymour hasn't played that often in 2009.

VERDICT
Townsville isn't such a daunting place for the Sharks, having won two of their past three matches at Dairy Farmers. The Round 6 clash between the sides in Adelaide went conclusively to the Cowboys, and both sides have improved since then, but the changes in fortune at the selection table this week make the home side a worthy strong favourite.

MELBOURNE (1.4) v NEWCASTLE (3.45) +9.5
Olympic Park, Saturday 1930

STORM
Dallas Johnson returns after a virus, looking to fix the tackling woes which cost the Storm dearly in their shock loss to the Raiders last week, while wonderkid Tomane has been told to pull his head in and start laying some tackles. Greg Inglis will have improved in condition after playing last week with a bruised jaw. Bench player Matt Cross misses with a hamstring injury.
KNIGHTS
Monday night's five-point victory over Souths was only based on about half an hour of quality rugby league from Newcastle, and the margin should have been even greater but for two late tries. The return of McDougall to the side provides that little bit extra quality they needed after three losses in their previous four rounds. Dureau, Tolar and Paterson are all available again after injury but won't be risked just yet while the team is in winning form.

VERDICT
Melbourne had won five in a row against Newcastle until a single-point defeat in Round 25 last year. Last week's shock loss, backing up after Origin, will give the Storm a slap in the face they needed. With a day's extra rest over the visitors, home ground advantage and the return of tackling machine Johnson, Melbourne should be too strong. The Knights have enough quality not to be blown away so take Melbourne HT/FT rather than relying on a blow-out.

CANBERRA (1.65) v GOLD COAST (2.5) +5.5
Skilled Park, Sunday 1400

RAIDERS
A ten-match losing streak against Melbourne was despatched last week in the shock of the round. Dugan and Monaghan stood out in a fine team performance, making it three wins out of five for the Green Machine. Coach David Furner has no fresh injury worries and retains last week's side. A Canberra try has been first scoring play in eight of their past nine matches.

TITANS
Four straight wins for the Titans leaves them equal on points with top position, but trailing on points difference. Three of those wins were at home, and the other on neutral soil. Rogers has been named to return after a rib injury, Henderson is named despite a broken thumb and Walker squeezes out Mead on the wing, after missing last week with severe migraines. The forward pack continues to have several injuries but the depth of the Titans is what has got them to third position.

VERDICT
Home team has won all five matches since the resurrection of the Gold Coast and each of the Titans' losses has come on the road. Are the Raiders really that good to beat the Storm? Do the Titans deserve to be equal top? This is a tricky matchup and I don't see much between the sides. In that case, you have to take the plus - Gold Coast +5.5.

PENRITH (1.88) v PARRAMATTA (2.1) +1.5
Penrith Stadium, Sunday 1500

PANTHERS
The injury toll for Penrith continues to mount as Civoniceva, Elford and Iosefa join Coote, Lewis and Gordon on the outer, but speedster Michael Jennings returns. Three losses in four isn't the best of formlines, however losses to the Dragons, Sea Eagles and Bulldogs are nothing to be ashamed of. The Panthers are hanging onto eighth place by a string, and can ill-afford another loss so soon, particularly against a side which suddenly has September aspirations.

EELS
Two wins in three has the Eels just three points behind eighth on the table, however their horrible points deficit effectively costs them another point. The win over Brisbane came via plenty of metres from Hayne, Inu and Hindmarsh (all over 150m), 30 more offloads and the Broncos averaging two missed tackles every three minutes.

VERDICT
Home advantage for the Panthers means little with the Eels winning two in a row here. Parramatta's form is on an upward trend however they do struggle to put together two good results in a row (WLDLWLW). Penrith have too many injuries to important players to back them, even at home. Maybe an either team under 6.5 bet in the TriWin market.

MANLY (1.8) v BULLDOGS (2.2) +2.5
Brookvale Oval, Monday 1900

SEA EAGLES
Manly are seriously back in town with three wins in a row and seven in their past ten. Seventh on table, just six pts from top and virtually at full strength apart from Brett Stewart, Manly are shaping up as a genuine premiership threat again. A bye to rest up after Origin and a solid win over Canberra with five rep players out - the Sea Eagles bandwagon is gaining steam. Five of Manly's seven wins have been by double-figure margins.

BULLDOGS
The merry run of the Bulldogs continues, trailing the Dragons at the top of the table by just a couple of tries on points difference. Hannant and Idris are still missing through injury, and while they are important players in the team, the Bulldogs have great depth and have adjusted well so far. Bryson Goodwin has crossed the line 14 times this season and leads the league in line breaks. David Stagg is second on the league tackle count with 600 tackles made. It's a good news week for the Bulldogs with time to celebrate the career of Hazem El Masri before he retires at the end of the season.

VERDICT
This has the potential to be one of the best games of the season. I've backing the Bulldogs for most of the season but I think they face a tough task here. With the Sea Eagles hitting their straps and playing at home, I'm tipping a home win. Manly -2.5

BETS of the WEEK
Manly -2.5
Melbourne/Melbourne HT/FT
Gold Coast +5.5

The Favourite
Considering the reasonable strength of the field it always comes as something of a surprise to see the name of Ian Poulter at the top of the market. The dapper Englishman has had an excellent year on the PGA Tour with three top-10s to go along with a couple of decent efforts in the majors. The question is, can he transfer that form to Europe? The facts are that Ian hasn't played on the continent yet this year and there has to be some doubt as to whether he can adapt immediately. Even if he does slip straight back into it I still don't think he is a player I would have as a jolly. He is currently trading at [17.5] and there is absolutely no way on earth I would back him at those odds.

The Next Best Bets
There are some seriously good players in this field including current major title holders Padraig Harrington and Angel Cabrera. Of the two I would most certainly edge towards the Argentinean at odds of around [32.0]. However, my main pick comes in the shape of a European Tour stalwart. Miguel Angel Jimenez has really caught my eye in the last few weeks. It started with the odd good round and last week I felt he played really well all week long. A few missed putts on Saturday stopped him from contending on the final day but he still finished strongly for fourth spot. I am happy to ignore his below average form in this event as I know if the game is there then the Spaniard can master any course. At attractive odds of [40.0] he has to be my main bet of the week.

The Massive Outsider
Despite how big an event this is on the European calendar in recent years we have grown accustomed to surprise winners. There is every reason to think that trend could continue this week so pay close attention to all those lurking around just off the top echelon of players. Keep an eye on previous winner Jose Maria Olazabal at odds of around [150.0] as he could well get back to winning ways here. However, my main man this week is Steve Webster. He has all the ability needed to win regularly on tour and he has show before that he can loves to play links style courses. Second place at the European Open a few weeks ago shows he is in decent nick and the rather attractive odds of [170.0] are just too big for me to refuse.

Interesting Info
This is a much revered trophy and that is reflected in the fact that 18 major champions have also won this event. Jimenez, my main pick, will be hoping to get his name on the roll of honour in what will be his 500th appearance on the European Tour. In doing so he will become the 19th player to achieve that feat and just the third Spaniard to do so.

The main difference to last year's competition is the format of the group stage. In the past, the group was made up of five teams who each played the other four on just one occasion. That slightly bizarre method has now been axed and we have the more traditional format where we have a group of four playing each other in a normal home and away basis. Certainly that change is much fairer to all concerned and more appealing to the fans.

The group stages start in mid-September but for anyone wanting to get even that far they still have some football to play. At the very least all teams will have to tackle a play-off match towards the end of August to progress to the group stages. The unlucky teams that are right down the pecking order start on the 2nd July will have to play eight matches just to reach the group phase. They can then take solace from that point they only need to play another fifteen matches to lift the trophy!

Some of you may be wondering what happened to the much-maligned Intertoto Cup. Well I can inform you that in effect that event has been incorporated into what we now see as the qualifying rounds for the Europa League. I am sure all those participating in these early rounds are just desperate to get to a point where they can play against one of the big teams. I don't expect any team to roll over but there are sure to be some one-sided affairs. The stand out teams in the first qualifying round are Rosenborg and Anorthosis. They are short priced to progress and could be supported without much fear of being turned over.

In European football there is such a distinct advantage to playing at home and in many ways this is more apparent when the teams have very little European experience. There aren't huge amounts of value to be had but there are a couple of home teams who should be backed. Icelandic side Fram would definitely warrant some support at [1.78] at home to Welsh side The New Saints. Due to the harsh winter the Icelandic League is played through the summer and as such Fram are already ten games into their season. It hasn't been a great start to the season for them but they will be fired up to face a team who, despite several attempts, has yet to win a game in Europe.

The other home team that catches my eye in this first phase of games is FC Zimbru Chisinau. The Moldovan outfit came second in their league last season and will have some confidence going into an encounter at home to Okzhetpes from Kazakhstan. Neither are exactly renowned for producing top teams but Okzhetpes only managed ninth last season and are currently tenth after thirteen games of this season. At odds of [1.75] Zimbru Chisinau are definitely the team to be on in this match-up.

In all fairness, the likelihood of many teams participating in these early rounds going to the group stages is slim. There are some very good teams that will come in at the play-offs and that is not to mention the Champion League failures who will join the competition. In total, an amazing thirty three different teams that fail in the Champions League will get a chance at the Europa League.

Fifteen losing teams from the Champions League third qualifying round will join the Europa League play-offs. Ten teams who lose in the Champions League play-offs will join the Europa League group stages and finally the eight third placed teams in the Champions League group stages will join in at the last 32 stage of the Europa League. Clearly this makes having a punt on the Winner market somewhat of a tricky proposition! But the facts are there are some teams already in there who will fancy their chances of being the inaugural winners of the Europa League.

Roma currently head the market at odds of [15.5] and they are a difficult team to assess. Sixth in Serie A last season was a disappointment but they do have some quality and if they apply themselves to this tournament then they will be big dangers. Other notable mentions must go to Valencia and Villarreal, who nobody will want to face. Of the English teams Everton and Villa should both have good chances. Martin O'Neill took a huge amount of stick for fielding a weakened side last year I doubt he will risk the wrath of the supporters again so they may go well at odds of around [28.0].

There are eleven months of Europa League ahead and for many it will be an arduous path. It will require a minimum fifteen European matches to win it so whoever does hold the trophy aloft in Hamburg next May you can be sure they have put the graft in that merits it.

When the Contrarian first gushed optimistically about England's chances of regaining the Ashes last August, the hosts were available at [3.5] on Betfair. The fact that the price remains the same almost a year on suggests that those wise words fell on deaf ears, although Kevin Pietersen lasting just three Tests as captain obviously didnt help instill a sense of excess optimism. Ever generous and forgiving though, the Contrarian is prepared to allow you a second chance by offering another helping of reasons to back Andy Flower's side.

England have a very strong home record

Australia may have whitewashed England two-and-a-half-years ago Down Under, but the outsiders are a completely different prospect with home advantage. Since Australia's last series win over here eight years ago, England have hosted 15 series and only lost two of them (against South Africa and India), both by a one-test margin, while winning ten and drawing three. The aggregate score of England's home test matches over that eight-year period is an overwhelming 30-8 margin in their favour.

Australia's last win here came when England were struggling at home

In contrast, the Australia team that came over and won 4-1 in 2001 were facing an England side who were nowhere near as impressive at home. Then, England had won just six of the 15 series they had hosted prior to that one with a vastly inferior aggregate test score of 18-20.

England are capable of successive home triumphs

There have been eight previous occasions when England have won successive home Ashes series. In fact, you have to go back to their failure to follow on from 1926s success in 1930 to find the last time they didn't build on a home Ashes win with at least one more.

The visitors aren't carrying their usual cocky momentum...

In recent years, Australia have headed into the Ashes on a great run of form. Two-and-a-half years ago they came into the Ashes on the back of a five series winning run in which they hadn't lost a single test, and four years ago arrived on a 16 series unbeaten streak, having won the most recent six of them. In fact, ahead of each of the last six Ashes they had won at least four of their last five series - but not this time. A year ago they were unbeaten in nine series during which they only lost one test match but since then they have lost two of four, against South Africa and India.

...and they're not the same team that humiliated England in Australia

Their indifferent form is less surprising given that since crushing England in 2007 Shane Warne, Justin Langer, Damien Martyn, Adam Gilchrist, Matthew Hayden and Glenn McGrath have all retired while coach John Buchanan also stepped aside and was replaced by his assistant Tim Nielsen. Four years ago, Warne took 40 wickets, twice as many as Australia's second most successful bowler Brett Lee (who is still in the squad but has struggled for form and fitness recently) and 16 more than anyone on the victorious England team managed. In the 2006-07 series, Warne and McGrath took 44 wickets between them. Second choice spin bowler Stuart MacGill has also retired which leaves Nathan Hauritz, who has played in just four test matches, as the only specialist slow bowler in their squad.

England were right to change captains

The hosts decision to get rid of Michael Vaughan, the man who captained them to victory four years ago, is likely to prove a shrewd one. Only one man has captained England to more than one Ashes triumph over the last 50 years - Mike Brearley - whereas on two of the last three occasions where a victorious captain has been replaced after a home triumph, the new leader has come up trumps in the next hosted series (Peter May in 1956 and David Gower in 1985). Therefore, despite Andrew Strauss being second choice behind Kevin Pietersen when Vaughan's successor was named, there is every chance he will be successful.

Yet before the series began, it was blonde Aussie wunderkind Michael Clarke who was named most likely to succeed in most of the Ashes previews. A string of dazzling one day innings had taken him into the Test team and earned him the Allan Border medal. But though his raw talent was apparent from the First Test at Lord's, his cavalier attitude and brittle technique repeatedly brought about his downfall.

Four years on and both men are preparing to face one another again. They have much in common. Their batting averages are in the same high-forties territory where you find the names of those verging on greatness. Both have gone from being talented novices to seasoned veterans and both are essential to their nations' Ashes hopes. However, they have trodden very different paths in the intervening years.

In a batting line-up devoid of stars, it was inevitable that Pietersen would be propelled to the fore. Injury and trauma removed the other two class acts in Marcus Trescothick and Michael Vaughan and pretty much since that heady day at the Oval, Pietersen has been regarded as England's only world class batsman. But the pressure to maintain his standards, burn-out, injury and the emotional scars of his failed spell as England captain had, by this spring, taken their toll on this confident but not insensitive player.

After his Ashes failure, Clarke soon lost his Test place and disillusionment could have set in at that point. But right from the start, the unforgiving culture of Australian cricket teaches youngsters that you have to work hard to earn a second chance. Clarke did just that, becoming more patient, more circumspect about when to unleash those wristy and audacious offside shots. The fashionable blonde locks were shorn off and it was an altogether more substantial young man who regained his Test place. He has repaid the selectors' faith by averaging 57.80 in his last 25 Tests, becoming the mainstay of an evolving batting line-up.

Both men will have leadership roles this summer. Vice-captain Clarke was long ago identified as a future Australian leader and his capable performance as stand-in skipper for the one day series with Bangladesh impressed many. But Pietersen will also have much to offer England. It is to his credit and to England's great fortune that his experiences as captain have not soured him. These days he is more involved than ever in working for the good of the team, offering advice to the likes of Ravi Bopara and even seeking intelligence on the Australians from his Bangalore Royal Challengers team-mates Jacques Kallis and Mark Boucher.

Punters will be most interested in how the two players are likely to fare at the crease. Pietersen's preparation has been less than ideal and at the time of writing, though his recovery from his Achilles injury is going well, there has to be a slight doubt hanging over his ability to see out a frenetic Ashes series in which the matches come thick and fast. Given that injury doubt, it is a little surprising to see him quite so short in the top England series batsman market, at [3.6]

Perhaps just as surprising are the current odds on offer about Clarke in the top Australian series batting market. Ed Hawkins' most recent article explains in depth where the value is to be found here and it is hard to disagree that odds of [5.6] about the Aussie vice captain are on the generous side, given the comparatively indifferent form of the other senior batsmen. Those odds will look even more generous if England go with a two spinner strategy. Clarke is one of the best players of spin around and will be more than happy to see both Graeme Swann and Monty Panesar line up at Cardiff.

But getting back to the Eclipse; I believe [2.0] is a good price for the favourite. To put it another way, ask yourself whether Sea The Stars has at least a 50% chance of ending up in the winners' enclosure on Saturday. If the answer is yes, then [2.0] is the right price. Based on personal ratings, proven form and a general gut feeling, I'd price him up at [1.8] so for me there's no other option than to take the current odds available on the back side. Whether or not his turn of foot will be as effective at a course like Sandown remains to be seen, but he still should have a few pounds in hand and enough to take the race regardless.

Conduit trades at [5.4] and is a worthy second-favourite when you consider his Gordon Stakes, St Leger and Breeders' Cup Turf wins last season. He has a 50% strike-rate and his second place last-time-out in the Group Three Blue Square Brigadier Gerard Stakes at Sandown certainly wasn't a blot on his copybook as he was giving weight all around and still ran a fantastic race. I'm not 100% sure that he likes the shorter races and 1m4f would probably suit a little better - however he's expected to put in a bold challenge and the Michael Stoute trained four-year-old is respected. Depending on prices, he may be the one to take in the place market.

Regular readers will know that I've opposed Rip Van Winkle on a number of occasions now and at [6.2] I'm happy to click pink once again. He won his first two starts at the Curragh and Leopardstown last year, but he can't live on that forever and has never done the business on the big stage in the UK. He needs to get a decent win under the belt pretty soon or else he'll be remembered as another Ballydoyle talking horse. It's well known that Murtagh thinks a lot of the horse at home, but from a punting perspective, we can only judge what we've seen with our own eyes and on that basis, I'm happy to oppose.

Cima De Triomphe won the aforementioned Brigadier Gerard Stakes and is reasonably priced at [15.0]. The 2008 Italian Derby winner would probably like further however, and only nabbed that race very late on. He might be out of his depth on this occasion but it'll be interesting to see how well or otherwise he runs.

Advice: Back Sea The Stars at [2.0].

* * *

It is well over a year since Woods really dominated a tournament. He has won a couple of times since returning from injury, but on both occasions, those who patiently waited for his odds to drift to double figures in-running were duly rewarded. Last time out at the US Open, he was a rock-solid favourite before the tournament, but never got into contention.

If this were a mere mortal we were talking about, I'm sure punters would have latched on to this obvious clue of laying at short prices pre-tournament, but because it is Woods, the usual wall of money is up on the exchange to back him around [3.1]. And this on a course where he missed the top-five on both attempts as a professional.

Presumably, punters are making much of the fact that the AT&T National is Tiger's own tournament, with a substantial share of proceeds going to his foundation. The assumption being made is that he'll be trying his hardest to win; surely a weak argument given that nobody alive has ever seen Woods give less than 100% in any competitive situation.

Of course Woods can win, and holds a great chance to do so. Even if he didn't seem quite at his best at Bethpage, his long game stats were pretty impressive and will serve him well again this week at Congressional. And if sixth and 12th placed finishes in the past two renewals represents failure by his standards, by anyone else's that would be a good course record. Nevertheless, one could say this about Woods every time he tees it up, and from a trading perspective all my instincts suggest a lay at [3.1] is the perfect way to start building an in-running book.

Which brings me to the forthcoming Open Championship. As Tiger will play no more competitive golf before the July 16 showpiece at Turnberry, whatever he does this week will significantly affect the Open betting. Right now, Woods is trading around [3.8]; a price that again looks the perfect lay from which to build a position.

It's important to remember Tiger's indifferent record in this major. Again, anyone else would laugh at the idea of three Open titles representing an 'indifferent' record, but by Woods' standards the rest of his efforts make disappointing reading. The three titles he won were on wide-open courses that suited him perfectly; St Andrews and Hoylake; and outside those venues he's only ever seriously challenged twice. Turnberry seems much more like the penal links layouts that he's yet to conquer.

No doubt Woods' Open odds are further restricted this year by the likely absence of arch-rival Phil Mickelson, and the total lack of form of the three principal links players; Padraig Harrington, Sergio Garcia and Ernie Els. Their prospects could yet improve with some good results over the next few weeks, but right now its hard to see who, bar Tiger, will start below [20.0].

However, in my view, the failings of the principal opposition isn't a good enough reason to back Woods. As we've seen so many times to painful effect recently, this game of golf is wide open nowadays and there are dozens of potential winners lurking in every pack. In those circumstances, one really must be a layer of short-priced favourites.

Okay, start again, because really the history of mismanagement from the boardroom goes back for a decade. If Ashley has mucked things up, then that was partly because he didn't know what to do with the mess he found once he'd taken it over. It's well known that the Sports Direct millionaire didn't bother to do due diligence when he paid £134million to buy the club, and then found another £100million of debts waiting to be cleared.

Now he's trying to sell up and get out - and guess who this morning appears to be the front runner to take over again at St James Park? Freddy Shepherd, the man who ran up those debts as chairman in the first place.

This morning's papers are full of talk that 66-year-old Shepherd, after failing to buy Real Mallorca, is fronting a consortium to take control again. He's presenting himself, through carefully placed anonymous sources, as the white knight to deliver the club back into Geordie hands and return it to prosperity.

But before you get tempted to be sucked in by his talk and back favourites Newcastle to win the Championship at the current price of [6.0], step back and look at the reality.

Shepherd's consortium want to pay only £60million for the club, which given its current status is generous but its still £40million below what Ashley is ready to accept. And even then as new owners they would have to wrestle with a wage bill of £72million a year that's totally unsustainable in the Championship. Add to that a squad that needs completely rebuilding, and the lack of a manager with the authority to do it, and you have another chapter in the ongoing "how not to run a football club" saga.

Newcastle's players return to pre-season training tomorrow and it will be coach Chris Hughton who, again, will be in charge. Talks on appointing Alan Shearer have broken down because Ashley can't confirm a manager until he knows whether or not he's selling, and who to. That means new players can't be signed - and the ones who are there are very definitely not the sort you'd fancy to grasp the muck and nettles of a division that demands 46 League games.

As well as being favourites to win the division, Newcastle are [3.45] favourites for promotion and both have to be clear opportunities to lay. I'd rather back somewhere between the current spread of [14.0] and [23.0] for them to get relegated again. Do you think it can't happen? Have a look at where Charlton, Southampton and Norwich are now.

Five things you might not know about Freddy Shepherd

1.He turned his family's firm Shepherd Offshore from a small marine company to a major player by helping redevelop failed factories along the River Tyne

2.It was his brother Bruce who first befriended the Hall family, leading to their joint involvement with Newcastle

3.Shepherd was the major player in bringing Alan Shearer to the club in 1996

4.In ten years before selling the club to Mike Ashley, Shepherd and his family made more than £8.35million from the club in share dividends and salaries

5.He ranked 1,331 in The Sunday Times rich list last year with a net worth of £58million

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