Denman deserves to be Guineas favourite
Weekly preview 
/ Kristen Manning / 08 October 2009 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market
With a field of 11 due to face the starter in Saturday's $1 million Gr.1 Caulfield Guineas, it may not be the biggest field the prestigious three-year-old Classic has attracted - but there is little doubt that it is one of the strongest fields of recent times, writes Kristen Manning
Five last start winners, two of those - Denman and Carrara - boasting picket fences next to their names. The former, one of only two contestants to have already won at Gr.1 level (Manhattan Rain the other), is favourite and likely to be short.
Beaten only once in a seven start career, Denman boasts similar lead up form to that of his sire Lonhro who won this race so easily in 2001. He too had won a few in a row including the Stan Fox.
High on confidence, Denman has been well handled by trainer Peter Snowden. This is his first crack at the 1600m but he settles in the style of a miler and he has the pedigree to back him - his close relation God's Own winning this race in memorable style in 2005.
Only one of Denman's rivals takes him on again here - Trusting second in the Golden Rose. He has the advantage of experience at Caulfield under his belt - flying home after striking interference to only just miss picking up Demerit in the Guineas Prelude.
The son of a Sandown Classic winning Zabeel mare (Legible), the Patinack owned colt is bred to run this trip right out and like Denman, he just doesn't know how to run a bad race. He has drawn a bit awkwardly but will get back and storm home.
Also coming through the Prelude is the regally bred Manhattan Rain whose half brother Redoute's Choice won this race in 1999. He is only second up at the mile which is of some concern but his first up run was a ripper and he is bound to be improved - trainer Gai Waterhouse reporting that he has been working extra well in Melbourne.
Just missing a placing in the Prelude, Starspangledbanner did not enjoy the best of luck. He didn't really settle in the middle stages and was entilted to tire. Instead he was really sticking his neck out and he didn't have much room over the final stages.
He is another stepping up to the 1600m for the first time but his sire Choisir ran a brave third in this race in 2002 and he hails from the family of Gr.1 milers Elvstroem and Haradasun.
Speaking of Elvstroem, his son Carrara is another leading chance here. He has won all three this campaign and whilst not successful by a wide margin in the Stutt, he'd had three weeks between runs and really dug deep when asked.
This is a tougher test for him but he is the only horse here to have already won at the distance, and that augers well.
So You Think however has won over an even longer trip - at his most recent outing taking out the Gloaming Stakes over 1800m. It is never easy to come back in distance but he is in the hands of master trainer Bart Cummings who loves this race.
He has had only three starts so is still somewhat of an unknown, but Sydneysiders have been impressed with what he has shown so far and Michael Rodd is a proven Gr.1 rider.
Such is the depth to this field that last start stakes winner Tickets is at double figure odds and he too must be considered. He boasts solid form around many of the leading chances and he is the only son of Caulfield Guineas winner Redoute's Choice in the field.
So hard to come to a conclusion here, what a field! For those lucky enough to be on track for one of Victoria's best racedays, be sure to head to the mounting yard. There are likely to be a few stand outs on looks here, this group of young horses a particularly nice one.
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The Betfair tip of the weekend is Denman in the $1 million Gr.1 Caulfield Guineas. To go to the market, click here.
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