Spring racing / Steve Mcghee / 13 October 2009 / Leave a comment Bet Now

The weather forecast this week in Melbourne does suggest rain-affected footing for Thousand Guineas Day on Wednesday and more cutting out going come Caulfield Cup Day on Saturday, so start circling some runners that will revel in rain-affected going.

Caulfield was super hard last Saturday and many a good horse did not stretch out or let go properly in the run home, with the fact making ground wide out was uber-tough all day not helping matters either.

The footing however and associated race patterns could be a complete turnaround for days two and three of Caulfield Cup week and at the very best we will see cushion and more chances of run on types rather than on pacers and fence huggers running riot at the finish.

The third race at Caulfield on Wednesday, the $70,000 Pura Light Star Plate, may only be a three-year-old mile but it contains some interesting prospects for the rest of spring at least.

Several of the runners are bred to manage a middle distance or further and may still be on a G1 Victoria Derby (2500m) path, as they could after Wednesday tackle the AAMI Vase (2040m) on Cox Plate day then one week later the Flemington age group feature.

Lets go through the field and see if this simple support card race on Thousand Guineas Day could be well worth watching, wagering on and hopefully winning from again further into spring.

Spacecraft looked every inch a colt destined to reach a higher altitude, when he strode away to win at his second start last time out over the mile and being by the stamina sire Galileo from an Octagonal dam, it is not hard to see a late Derby campaign launching pad for this impressive type.

Don Jose finished a distant second to Spacecraft last start but he too is on the rise and should appreciate running over more ground being by Elvstroem (2003 Victoria Derby winner) out of a Scenic dam.

The first thing Scenic tells you is that wet weather capability and stamina is unlikely to be a problem, with the Melbourne Cup winner last year in Viewed an example that readily springs to mind.

Damien Oliver rides Don Jose this time and that is a massive help, while you will need a crow bar to get Dan Nikolic of Spacecraft at the moment plus after his brilliant ride to win the G1 Caulfield Guineas last Saturday he is on a stratospheric high.

Hanks has plenty of size and a real Derby look about him already but will have to give away weight to some handy sorts here plus he is coming back 200m in distance for this.

The gelding finished fourth last start in the Listed UCI Stakes (1800m) behind a major Victoria Derby prospect in Shamoline Warrior.

Notably the runner up (Saint Encosta) and third placegetter (Tribunal) from the UCI Stakes are both themselves serious Derby win hopes too plus each like Hanks is by the super sire Encosta De Lago.

Saint Encosta may still be a maiden but the colt is good and he has a big race in him at his first campaign plus being out of a Barathea dam it is hard to see stamina being a concern.

Tribunal is bred to handle wet ground and stay, with his dam Triattica already having left amongst several winners the best performed so far in his half-sister Demerger (8 wins up to and including 3200m at G1 and half of them came in the wet).

Za Bullet unleashed a sustained inside run last start to run down a clear leader late in the race over the mile and this colt oozes stamina being a half-brother by Zabeel to the 2004 G1 VRC Oaks winner Hollow Bullet.

Zabeel should give him the ability to manage rain-affected footing and of course built in stamina, while his dam has proven her ability to leave a stayer already, so it is not hard to spot the Derby aspirations with this one.

King Diamond cleared maidens second up, after running into Don Jose at debut and finishing a luckless fifth plus he is out of the Zabeel dam Kali Smytzer, which means a stamina and wet track boost.

Obviously the ticks for Don Jose keep coming through King Diamond winning next time out but also because in that debut win the runner up was Tee Emar, which came out next time and demolished a maiden field.

Then last start Tee Emar finished second at Listed level over 1800m in the Hill Stakes in Adelaide, albeit not a massively strong field, but at least a race with some scope to leave improvers and even surprise a few this season.

By the way the horse that won the Listed Hill Stakes was called Keep Control and on debut he finished a decent fifth at Geelong in a maiden over 1340m, where the runner up was Morossa (a runner in this on Wednesday) and Spacecraft finished fourth.

Keep Control won his second start on slow ground then the Hill Stakes last time out and is by Denon from the Brave Regent dam Out In Style, which has already left Like It Is to win 11 races for the same stable.

Like It Is won up to 2000m and was G1 placed in the Doomben Cup (2020m), so Keep Control should contribute greatly to the Darren Weir stable too much like his half-sister and he maybe a bit better than many have given him credit for at this early stage.

Morossa has improved with racing this time in and after that second two starts back, in the race that saw Spacecraft (fourth on debut) and Keep Control (fifth on debut), he cleared maidens himself easily last start.

The form is at least replicating solid results no matter what tentacle you trace through several runners found in this three-year-old mile at Caulfield on Wednesday and it is an all the more interesting race because such links exist.

Viking Hero runs for the Mike Moroney stable, which already has a proven stamina and wet track commodity for the Victoria Derby that will be heavily backed called Monaco Consul (swam clear to win the G1 Spring Champion Stakes at Randwick last start).

The breeding of Viking Hero gives you a bit a Derby confidence because he is by Elvstroem from the Zabeel dam Gypsy Dollars.

Commonage Close looks at initial glance to be a well-tried maiden not going too far but upon closer inspection you find it has run into several above average sorts.

The gelding should manage a mile or further and there is some wet track form through his siblings, so he could be the surprise factor on Wednesday.

He does not like the Moonee Valley surface for mine, as his last start flop and his debut miss both showed but in between those times he was unfortunate enough to run into the likes of the potential star Black Caviar (a serious form thread filly), the highly promising Demerit (G1 Coolmore Stud Stakes bound) and the up and comer Extra Zero (good fourth in the G1 Caulfield Guineas last Saturday).

This off pacer looks the best longshot on the minimum with Craig Newitt to ride for the first time.

Shahryar last start finished a distant third behind Spacecraft and Don Jose, both rivals again here, but is only a kilo to a kilo and a half better off and that may not be enough to bridge the gap.

The colt has been going sound races all the same but being by the sprint sire Exceed And Excel one does have stamina concerns but a mile looks within his grasp.

Another in the third race at Caulfield on Wednesday over the mile for three-year-olds that is by the speed sire Exceed And Excel is Exceed All Limits, which has at least won a race albeit a juvenile scamper over 900m.

His claim to fame at this point would be finishing within eight lengths of Denman at his third juvenile start.

Noble Romeo is the only runner on Wednesday from the third race not mentioned yet and the gelding was not that bad last start, although he did finish three positions behind Exceed All Limits at the post.

He does seem to get through rain-affected footing without any problems though.

Make sure if you are putting notes on this race that you are also making them (not in the counterfeit sense) too on runners to back at a later stage of the spring.