Spring racing / Steve Mcghee / 13 October 2009 / Leave a comment Bet Now

The form of the Sydney gallopers in Melbourne so far this spring could be best summed up as slightly under-achieving in relation to some of their reputations arrived with but bettors are advised to have their betting powder at the ready.

One constant is that the right-handers (gallopers from North of Victoria that race clockwise) struggle to cope with the turns of Caulfield and those plus the texture at Moonee Valley, so normally each spring it is a simple case of biding your time for the wide open expanse that is Flemington before loading up.

Flemington is where you can make good money on visiting horses that had failed to handle Caulfield or Moonee Valley, so keep that betting plan on the backburner for the moment but ready to light up from October 31 to November 7.

The threat of a rain-affected track at Caulfield on Wednesday and on Saturday for Caulfield Cup day does open up both meetings, as the fitness levels of many Sydney gallopers for example are ahead of most of the locals.

It is for this reason mainly that the Gerald Ryan visiting stable from Rosehill could have a decent Wednesday and a couple of his runners recent form hides fit horses waiting for the right race to rumble in.

His main form runner will be the three-year-old filly Melito, drawn to suit in the G1 $500,000 Schweppes Thousand Guineas (1600m) but most will include her in all multiples without a second thought, so hard to see much value there.

I see better value in two other Ryan runners on the day both to be ridden by Blake Shinn.

Race Four

EQUABLE is the older half-brother to the useful Zupacool and his three runs in since resuming this season have all been meritorious to some extent despite paying big odds each time.

His fresh up third over 1200m, when late clear under 57.5kg, showed he had come back in fine fettle and then second up he ran a good race for sixth at G2 to be beaten four and a half lengths.

I know the form out of this race since has been in the main poor but the runner up Rock Kingdom has since won the G1 Epsom (1600m) this spring and finished a brave close up third at Caulfield last Saturday in the G1 Toorak (1600m)

Equable last start finished eleventh in the G3 Bill Ritchie (1400m) but the effort was much better than it reads and when you consider in that race the likes of Purple finished a top fourth under 58kg, it puts it into perspective.

Purple will be a massive chance in Race Seven today, the Listed event against her own sex and she loves it wet and is nearly unbeaten when moisture is prevalent.

Equable has fourth up form and is the value here plus he has only lined up once counter-clockwise for a win and he is not the complete duffer his wet track stats indicate at first glance.

Blake Shinn rides and he has been aboard just twice before for a win and a second, so he knows what this galloper can do and at what level.

SOUND OF NATURE looks the logical one to be plunged again and cut in the track poses no concerns for this former European galloper.

They had a whack on him last start up in Sydney in the Bill Ritchie and he ended up a good sixth beaten two lengths, after not much went his way early.

This off pacer will relish the step up to the mile here and amazingly he beat home Equable last start but is half a kilo better placed here to make him a must for your multiples.

AT THE CREASE has plenty of presence about him and could be the next good horse for trainer Brian Mayfield-Smith and who knows, maybe he will try and slip this horse into something like the G1 Emirates Stakes (1600m) at Flemington on the last day of the Melbourne Cup week carnival.

Bettors are advised to hit out at this one from now on and no worries about a damp pitch, as he plays through the line and keeps his head down over the strike zone and even more importantly very still for maximum output.

It was hard not to like his fresh up fourth behind the winner Sound Of Nature and try getting rider Craig Newitt of this horse over spring, as he knows how good it is.

Bigger tracks just suit this big spring all rounder and while he is no 'Bradman', he is of the class to open an innings and not give a bettor's ticket away.

He usually races back but as the distance increases and his barrier is better, so will his ability to race closer start to show again and the days of over-racing and slogging are hopefully a thing of the past.

Race Five

AHDASHIM is a nice type from the Gerald Ryan stable and although drawn wide, I see him as able to avoid any trouble and pitch forked into this race at 53.5kg.

Blake Shinn rides and once again from just two rides on the gelding he has recorded a win and a second, so knows the power and potential of this sprinter.

No worries with a rain-affected track, as there is plenty of wet trackers in his family and apart from a win on slow ground he never went too badly the other two wet track outings.

He is a much stronger sprinter now and in blacktype races contested to date has been placed three times and gone super races the other two times.

The most he has been beaten at G3 is two and a half lengths and his three races this campaign have all been outstanding.

Two starts back he finished an excellent third in the G3 Concorde Stakes (1100m), where the fourth placed finisher was Gold Trail and his two starts since have returned a very close up Listed third and a bolt away G2 win.

Gold Trail was placed third behind the Victorian raider Lucky Secret, which carried a huge weight that day and has shown his quality again since back at home by last weekend winning the G2 Schillaci (1000m) in track record time.

The win by Gold Trail came by four lengths in the G2 The Shorts (1200m), after starting from the outside gate, so the form thread strength for Ahdashim is colossal.

The last start not far away sixth by Ahdashim in the G3 Cameron Handicap (1300m) was sound in a very competitive race that saw the field fan out halfway in the run home.

He was beaten a nostril at Listed level last campaign fourth up from a spell and only the left-hand way of going is the query with him here, not the ability.

The gelding last season finished second at Listed level fifth up from a spell and was beaten nostril again, with the winner the useful Centennial Park that has since lined up just for more times and won twice.

The third placegetter in this race was the class key, as Nicconi was the horse and he is a top sprinter on the rise and rated a star by trainer David Hayes, with the G1 Patinack Farm Classic (1200m) at WFA his main spring target and then overseas to show his wares.

HERE DE ANGELS can fly and the topweight here is no burden, as he likes this track and is drawn to scorch the Caulfield earth.

SECRET FLYER has drawn out awkwardly though he will enjoy a handicap, after mixing it at WFA versus the likes of Nicconi and Danleigh but it should be added Caulfield may not be his track though any cut in the ground is not a problem.

EL MANDON has drawn the ace but handles cut in the ground, so that is not a concern and in fact a rival such as Here De Angels can create a saloon passage throughout for him to emerge and prevail.

The gelding likes Caulfield and the 1200m plus his fresh up run was an eyecatcher and last start he ran into a powerful sort called Eagle Falls that he had to give 3.5kg too.

Chris Symons rides and he has been atop twice to date for a win (here at Caulfield last autumn) and that last start second.

Two other races on the card worth a wager, if the price were acceptable, would be the final pair of events on the card.

Race Seven

PRIMA NOVA was absolutely massive two starts back fresh up in the G3 How Now (1200m) here at Caulfield, when whistling home from the back through the ruck from a hopeless position on the home turn to finish fifth beaten two lengths.

Unfortunately last start the mare in the G2 Rose Of Kingston Stakes (1400m) never hit out at all on the hard ground at Flemington and had leg issues, with even retirement mentioned afterwards.

Well she is back off the canvas here and drawn well, with the prospect of at least a cushioned Caulfield far more appealing than an unforgiving Flemington plus the mile here is more her realm.

Corey Brown rides and he has in six mounts on the mare recorded a couple of wins and a placing, so he well knows her true ability.

PURPLE is the obvious one and even more so if Caulfield softens up, as her record of six starts on slow or worse footing for five wins and a placing will testify.

BELLEZA VELOZ has a shocking draw but you have to consider this mare and a rain-affected track will not be a concern, with her last start second also showing the mile was achievable too.

However it was two starts back in the G2 Let's Elope (1400m) at Flemington that she was one of three that finished together in ninth, tenth and eleventh place over the line that caught the eye.

The reason is they all had no luck to varying degrees and were not that far away or late clear plus one of them has since won twice in a row including at G1 last start and will run in the G1 Caulfield Cup next Saturday, namely Allez Wonder.

The other is a good bolter to be on next time she strikes a roomy track called With Apologies, after finding Moonee Valley no help at her last two outings.

Re-watch the Let's Elope and see the trio of mares go over the line together and you will be on board, if you can stomach realizing how did you miss Allez Wonder at the time.

I should quickly add here that RUNNING RIOT finished second equal last start with Belleza Veloz and carried 3.5kg more, so here with just 1kg more, a good draw and Damien Oliver aboard plus course, distance and wet track form, it is hard to leave her out though she may be unders.

Interestingly we saw Craig Newitt rode Running Riot last start but he goes with Bashful Girl in this and as an already G2 placed mare at the mile, she looks invitingly placed at 53kg.

She also can cope on cutting out ground and Newitt has ridden her once before to finish third plus she resumed for a new stable, namely the Laming barn, and looked very fit after having been previously prepared by Brian Mayfield-Smith.

Race Eight

BIG COL after three runs back from a spell is ready to start winning again and did just that last campaign in this condition over 2000m at his only Caulfield outing to date.

He has an awkward draw here but Damien Oliver to ride will ensure the tactics are correct and he did get a feel for the gelding two starts back, when a luckless eleventh at the Sandown-Lakeside track.

The ability of this galloper was shown last year, when an honest eleventh in the G1 AJC Derby (2400m) and he was rather well backed that day too.

This last race of the day is not exactly dripping with talent and it makes sense the lightly tried types with plenty of upside should hold sway in a fair dinkum run race.

If the second emergency THE ZEEBAC gets a start then include him, as he is a middle distance galloper that shows form third and fourth up plus is already proven left-handed.

His two runs up in Sydney since resuming should see a fitter and more focussed galloper this time and Steven King down to ride is a positive.

King has been aboard four times before for just one placing but this galloper was not always the easiest ride, so his experience is worth many lengths here.

The potential of The Zeebac was easy to see when at 100-1 from the outside gate he finished ninth beaten six lengths in the G1 Rosehill Guineas (2000m), as several G1 winners and performers were not that far ahead and some were in fact behind him at the post.

Ready to show something.