Spring racing / Steve Mcghee / 29 October 2009 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

Derby Day at Flemington is 'wagering nirvana' for punters seeking value, according to Steve McGhee, who previews Saturday's card

EUPHEMISM is a lightly tried gelding thought to be a Derby type until his last start distant fifth over 1800m at Flemington. The winner of that race was Shamoline Warrior, the Derby favourite, and Hanks finished fourth, so the field was solid enough in depth terms. The effort by Euphemism was moderate. I see him as a potential value runner back to the mile. The Flemington track manager is likely to water the track before each meeting to stop the ground from drying out for the feature events, so the opening event of the carnival's first day should provide ample give.
SEGURO was a super run last start for a maiden and being by High Chaparral he should relish the mile here. Not the worst from a good draw and one is to follow. KIDNAPPED is a stablemate of Euphemism and is likely to vie for favouritism along with the expensive purchase, THE COMEDIAN.

Race 2-G3 $250,000 THE LEXUS STAKES (2500m)

This really is a desperate race for many Melbourne Cup hopefuls looking to nab the final berth available on Tuesday and it should make for a gripping tactical battle. SHOCKING is the class horse and the best weighted to knock out all the Cup hopefuls. He won his only start on this his home track last season and finished second in the G1 Queensland Derby (2400m) on testing ground for rider Michael Rodd. Shocking thrives on racing but it's doubtful there will be any value in his price, especially since Rodd is back aboard for the first time this campaign. The likely give in the ground early on Saturday will suit the New Zealand-trained pair of HOORANG, which has been running ripper races of late, and SIX O'CLOCK NEWS, which will love Flemington but often turns money into thin air. These two are seeking a final boarding pass to fly first class at Flemington on Tuesday. NOTHIN' LEICA CAT has been working lengths better than her racing suggests and the mare looks well. With 53kg from a good draw and Kerrin McEvoy to ride, I sense she can pounce in this at close to double figures. REPRISAL third-up looks one for big odds. He's won in Victoria before and there's little doubt that trainer David Hayes would like to get a second runner into the Melbourne Cup. The horse ran on well last start in the G3 Coongy (2000m) and dead footing should be suitable.

Race 3-G2 $300,000 LONGINES WAKEFUL STAKES (2000m)

RUN FOR NAARA and FAINT PERFUME already look the clear top two for the G1 Crown Oaks (2500m) next Thursday, with the former already proven on the track and the latter likely to appreciate it. There will be no value in either but they already look the stamina fillies in this field over 2000m. The others will need more than luck and the weights are against them. Run For Naara drops 5kg from last start, when she demolished lesser opposition, and is built like a tank. Faint Perfume was sent forward around the field last start, in the on-pace dominated G1 Thousand Guineas (1600m), but she sustained the effort to finish a close third. It was an unbelievable run considering the track bias and she gets 2.5kg relief from Melito here.
MONT FLEURI has to stand up for the Lee Freedman stable, as she is bred to stay. SILENT SURROUND, although not well weighted, does look a big track filly, so Flemington should suit.

Race 4-G1 $500,000 COOLMORE STUD STAKES (1200m)

TICKETS can come back from the mile last start and use his sheer size to win this at set weights. He ran a game sixth in the Caulfield Guineas after having to move wide across the top from off the pace.
 It is worth nothing that the Cox Plate winner So You Think was the only horse that came outside Tickets at the finish and beat him home (by a lip). MORE THAN GREAT is the one I suspect will have some inspired support early but may end up at a backable price, as the colt has an option draw of six. His last-start run at G2 against the older sprinters at Caulfield was good. One had to like his previous form too, which included a win over So You Think and close up efforts behind Denman. Nash Rawiller rides on Saturday and this is pivotal, as he has been aboard to date four times for three wins and a second. WANTED has drawn wide but it may be the right side of the track, so with Damien Oliver aboard you know there will be more than one plan just before the jump. The colt has gone extra well at his last two starts at G1 and G2 against the older horses at WFA and his close fourth two runs back was excellent. The early pace on the far side should come from the filly PAPRIKA, which has drawn barrier three. She should find running in a straight line here easier to handle than the turning track at Caulfield. If she does come out humming it could give the exciting filly IRISH LIGHTS a big chance to get home late.

Race 5-G1 $750,000 MACKINNON STAKES (2000m)

This is the grand final for some and a stepping-stone for others, but the one thing that can be assured is that the pace should be on. CIMA DE TRIOMPHE would gap this lot if anywhere near his European best, but his Caulfield Cup run was a shocker. However, be warned about dismissing a class trainer like Luca Cumani on one poor run. The runners in this race that have the Melbourne Cup as the main goal on Tuesday are clearly a risk in this, unless they need one last strong hit-out. I like NEWPORT for the boilover of the century in the Cup on Tuesday but first he has to get through this and get to the post again in three days. So maybe have a little on him in this for a large return. His last start late run at Caulfield was better than it can ever read on paper or on a computer screen. RANGIRANGDOO obliterated his rivals last week at Moonee Valley over the mile at G2 and this strapping Sydneysider has gears. This will be his first attempt at 2000m and the first time at WFA, plus he has never backed up a week after his last run. It should be some sight when Rangirangdoo is unleashed at Flemington with such a long run home. He is by the sire Pentire, so you would think that 2000m is well within his range. RACING TO WIN is a seasoned campaigner who at his best wouldn't fear most of these. He caught the eye last start under 58.5kg in the G1 Toorak (1600m).

Race 6-G1 $1,500,000 AAMI VICTORIA DERBY (2500m)

SHAMOLINE WARRIOR and MONACO CONSUL are the two favourites, with the former course proven and the latter looking like he has unlimited stamina. The query on both, if there is one, is the fact that Flemington should be a hard track by this stage of the day and neither of them has yet proven they can cope on such a surface. A hardening track brings ROCKFERRY into the reckoning and there should be a good betting move for him closer to race time. He was unlucky last start and the rider owned up, admitting he erred in judgement around the home turn. If you think he might be the one, then the still green New Zealand trained colt OUR HEIR APPARENT must be in the mix too, as he can sustain a long run and of course is by Zabeel. I have concerns that any horse backing up from the unexpected hard track at Moonee Valley last week is a betting risk on Saturday. But some of the runs were so good it is hard to ignore them. EXTRA ZERO was the worst ridden horse in all of Australia last weekend in the G2 AAMI Vase (2040m), when wide for half the race then sent up to attack the leader before wilting in the run home. It was an outstanding effort to finish fifth, beaten just under four-and-a-half lengths.

Race 7-G1 $500,000 MYER CLASSIC (1600m)

The one to beat and a clear cut favourite is TYPHOON TRACY, which has creamed most of these before and under the WFA scale actually gets half a kilo from several of her main challengers. The wide gate is the only thing posing a concern. She is a natural on-pacer and has form in G1 and G2 WFA races.  She should be the best bet of the day, as nothing in this field has her ping. NEROLI and HOT DANISH are well drawn and the usual two suspects to keep Typhoon Tracy honest, with both having scored at Flemington before. I see the pace on in this race and Neroli might get a cosy run before being drawn out. ZARITA is a classy mare and loves Flemington and the mile, so do not leave her out of the mix. Her last two starts have come at G1 against the then Cox Plate favourites Whobegotyou and Heart Of Dreams. The South African mare EMBLEM OF LIBERTY was a good race first-up in Australia over 1400m. A real bolter is BELLEZA VELOZ from the ace draw. The mare is not well in under this WFA scale and is yet to win at the mile but buried back on the fence could be an advantage.

Race 8-G2 $300,000 SEPPELT SALINGER STAKES (1200m)

This is a wide open race outside the certain hot favourite, FIRST COMMAND. He's roughly a kilo worse off against several he beat home last start. He has early zip and can race in pressure contests or saunter along before lifting late like he did last start. The gelding is more than a one-dimensional sprinter and that is important once you get up in the weights against good horses. EAGLE FALLS should appreciate more speed on this occasion. The harder track on Saturday is also a plus. OLONANA looks the value, as this mare is lightly tried but she possesses a super-finishing sprint, and all reports have her ready to really rip home in this fresh-up. She has raced at Flemington twice before, with a win and a fourth at listed level. All of her three career wins to date have come in a fresh-up state, so look for her late. SECRET FLYER had no chance out the back last start.
The gelding is another that really gets home hard from off the pace. as long as they help by burning early. I like his soft draw and weight here. Craig Williams rides and this is notable, as he has been aboard four times for two wins and two placings. The record of Secret Flyer at Flemington shows four runs for two wins (one an annihilation at Listed level) but it is actually better than that. One of those runs was a ninth in the G1 Newmarket (1200m) this autumn. He was beaten four and a half lengths, after settling in the rear group of a capacity twenty two-horse field. The winner was Scenic Blast, which went to England and won the G1 Kings Stand (1000m) at Royal Ascot.

Race 9-G3 $250,000 AAMI BUSINESS INSURANCE STAKES (1400m)

This is a good betting race, outside the likely favourite MCCLINTOCK, which is big and strong and fast. He has not encountered Flemington before but runs such strong sectionals that he should be up for the fight. Interestingly, almost all of his wins have come as a leader, so an outer gate helps him even at this tricky starting point on the track. WALKING OR DANCING, another visitor from Sydney, looks the weight special in the race at 53kg from an option barrier. The gelding has had some setbacks this campaign but has trialled three times and won them all. He is chomping at the bit to do it on race day. His only start this season saw him narrowly beaten by McClintock over 1400m at G3 at Randwick in late September. Craig Williams rides and he is one-for-one aboard the gelding. CHASM is badly drawn but is one for value, as you can make a case for him off the video tape almost each start this season. His record at Flemington is excellent. LARGO LAD is a big horse that can lengthen out potently in a solid run race and his fresh up record should read four wins from four starts rather than two victories, an unlucky third and a luckless Listed sixth. He is a chance from the ace here at 56kg and looks a judiciously placed runner on his home track, where he races well.  CENTENNIAL PARK has the ability to be a threat in this from a good barrier. He has always had a rap and this season in three runs since resuming has won twice, with the only defeat coming in a fifth behind Rangirangdoo.