Spring racing / Steve Mcghee / 19 October 2009 / Leave a comment Bet Now

New Zealand trained runners make up a quarter of the field and Six O'Clock News, the best-weighted runner in the field, is on his last realistic chance to make the Melbourne Cup field, with nothing short of a win required here.

Many runners are looking to restore their formlines like the Perth galloper Guyno, while the Cumani and Godolphin camps are looking to pick up the pieces with different runners, namely Basaltico and Crime Scene, after a disastrous Caulfield Cup for each last Saturday.

The field for the 2009 G3 $200,000 Geelong Cup (2406m) on Wednesday looks a very backable race and also a key pointer for the rest of the Melbourne spring carnival in one shape or another, with in particular Six O'Clock News being the best New Zealand trained runner.

There are several horses on the fringe of gaining a start in the G1 $5.65 million Emirates Melbourne Cup (3200m), so it will a pressure day for many connections at Geelong let alone the trainers and riders.

A regular recent race pattern for the Geelong Cup has been towards on pacers and at the very least, those that sweep up meaningfully on the home turn from the ruck to lodge a challenge with momentum, so tactics are pivotal.

I can see this pattern changing on Wednesday and it needs too, if a desperate Kiwi raider in Six O'Clock News is to headline the day at Geelong and possibly the rest of the spring.

Six O'Clock News looks a million dollars in terms of physique and top of the ground power but he has to date only won a quarter of a million dollars.

He is a natural backrunner and a long strider but he can really unleash, as long as they go solidly enough up front so that it is not just a dash for the cash from the home turn.

His weight of the minimum 53kg on Wednesday makes him look a special, especially in comparison to several of the opposition that he has easily beaten before at home, plus he could trounce most of the others on a good day too.

Six' O'Clock News can by winning the Geelong Cup really propel himself into the Melbourne Cup picture, as he should simply adore roomy Flemington.

He is bred to win Cups being by the indefatigable stamina sire Zabeel out of the dual G1 Avondale Cup (2200m) winner Maurine, whose sister Maurita won the NZ Oaks (2400m) and was placed second in both the G1 Auckland Cup (3200m) and the then G1 Wellington Cup (3200m).

Maurita has already left the 1994 Japan Cup (2400m) winner Marvelous Crown and the G1 Hollywood Turf Classic (2400m) winner Grand Flotilla, while Maurine has left a NZ St Leger (2500m) winner in Aeroforce amongst her winners to date.

Cups and stamina abound in the blood of Six O'Clock News and but for taking a strange almost sheer panic racing path this spring due to clearly bad advice or not thinking it through themselves properly, the long-barrelled gelding should already be safely in the Melbourne Cup field and with a Flemington run under his belt.

In fact he should have run in the Caulfield Cup last Saturday as his final Melbourne Cup outing rather than be having a last throw of the dice at Geelong.

Somehow the connections and/or trainers Patrick and Trent Busuttin listened to rogue advice or read into farcical local headlines at home and simply panicked into sending Six O'Clock News to Sydney and the G1 Metropolitan Handicap (2400m) to get him into the Caulfield Cup and then the Melbourne Cup fields.

It was a shocking decision because firstly that race attracted several higher profile desperate runners looking to make the Melbourne Cup field and worse still, the footing was a bog and Six O'Clock News is not adept in that footing at G1 level.

The gelding ran on late for a decent eighth but was beaten eleven lengths and the run and trip to Randwick in Sydney did absolutely nothing for him and in fact it relegated him further down the list.

It was a pointless exercise to tackle such a strong field and wet footing that was expected a long way out, because you get the double whammy of meeting much better quality on much worse ground that you want at this stage of your campaign.

On the very same day Six O'Clock News swam around Randwick in Sydney to promote his Melbourne Cup claims not one iota and in fact devalue them, they raced at Flemington and on that card was a 2500m Listed event.

It was The Bart Cummings over 2500m and the winner was Light Vision, which when it came down to a crunch call by the Caulfield committee, he got a start in the Caulfield Cup last Saturday.

Did you know Six O'Clock News missed a Caulfield Cup start by a whisker and it was his last start Randwick eighth that really counted against him, as he was ranked higher than a few that made the ballot in the end but they could not find a place for him?

Six O'Clock News wanted to run in the Caulfield Cup then the Melbourne Cup, in an orthodox Cups schedule over spring, but panic and heading in the wrong direction to the wrong race under the wrong conditions may yet implode the spring dreams of both connections and the trainers.

I really believe Six O'Clock News could have demolished that Listed The Bart Cummings (2500m) at Flemington on the same day he nearly drowned at Randwick getting gapped by Speed Gifted, which is now safely qualified for the Melbourne Cup and should jump favourite if he gets to the post, with a certain Cox Plate run to negotiate first.

Six O'Clock News would have almost ensured his Caulfield Cup start by taking out the Listed 2500m at Flemington and maintained his preferred spring campaign plus the bonus being you get a look at Flemington in the process.

It is after all Flemington on the first Tuesday in November that is the ultimate prize but if you are not in then you cannot win.

I hope silly planning, swallowing clearly ill-conceived local media advice and rank panic setting in for no reason whatsoever has not derailed the spring hopes of Six O'Clock News because he is almost destined to win a major Cup but hopefully it is Flemington rather than say Fielding three days earlier.

The Geelong Cup on Wednesday is the 'Waterloo' for Six O'Clock News, as he is not a back-up type you could try again a few days before the Melbourne Cup in one last 'hail Mary' hope to scrape into the field.

There is always the miracle that the numbers drop away so badly in the next two weeks you get in by default but if you cannot bury them in a Geelong Cup then Flemington against twenty-three other fierce competitors on November 3 is not the place for him.

His one dimensional racing style of dropping out the back off the pace then swamping them late is foolproof for him but only if the pace up front is testing and allows him to pass all the stopping traffic.

To show you how poor a path Six O'Clock News has taken all this campaign, we find in his five runs the gelding has raced on slow footing twice and a heavy track once, which is sheer madness for a top of the ground stayer.

The only time he has struck a real firm track this campaign he finished a close second over a mile under 56kg, with his other dead track outing third up seeing him run home well late for fifth under 57.5kg, in a leader won mile that was a dawdle and sprint home.

Maybe it is fate or maybe Six O'Clock News is not good enough but you at least would like the opportunity to find out rather than reel from wrong race to wet track to unhelpful bias and so on almost every outing this campaign.

He has run over 2400m or further to date five times for one win, a pair of fifths, an eighth and a tenth.

His win came in the G2 City Of Auckland Cup (2400m) at Ellerslie on New Years Day this year and he won easily by powering home the outer in a solidly run race to clock an impressive 2:27.25 under 52.5kg.

The winner of the Caulfield Cup last Saturday clocked 2:29.70 and the winner came from the back albeit scraping paint along the fence throughout and not going around a single horse to give you a time perspective.

The fifths for Six O'Clock News came as a three-year-old in the G1 NZ Derby (2400m), where the winner on a bog track was C'est La Guerre and he ran a luckless third in the Melbourne Cup last year.

The other fifth by Six O'Clock News came in the G1 Auckland Cup (3200m) this year in the autumn, where he started a warm favourite but in a slow run race and sprint home he was yesterdays news at the halfway mark.

He did run on, as he almost always does, but what else could go wrong after regularly striking wet tracks and crawling up front contests?

Before he won the G2 City Of Auckland Cup brilliantly, the gelding finished tenth in the G2 Waikato Cup (2400m) at Te Rapa and the on pace and fence bias on the track that day was enormous.

He got home late though was held up by traffic and too far away turning for home, in a race won by the trailer in what was an almost all on pace or fence finish.

Once you throw in his eighth in the Metropolitan at Randwick on a bog, you see he has been beaten by wet footing twice and race and/or track bias twice, so how can you not back him the next time he strikes a distance and race run to suit?

Six O'Clock News at 53kg looks a headline maker in the Geelong Cup too me but that is with provisos that it cannot be a slow or worse track and they cannot walk up front and sprint home making it a non-staying contest.

He can win handsomely if a reasonable track is presented and a reasonable time is run, which is almost an impossible ask with this bloke this campaign it seems.

His wide draw is irrelevant because he naturally flops out the back, with tempo being the key ingredient because it will lead to his downfall if it is tepid throughout but it will be his saviour if it is solid and sustained.

I would go all up Geelong Cup to Melbourne Cup now, as a small amount will yield an enormous return.

I would then grab some of the massive Melbourne Cup odds as a stand-alone wager now because I suspect his price at Geelong maybe just okay but it will pale in comparison to the Flemington fluctuation before versus after.

Some other serious names to consider in the Geelong Cup this year, in what will hopefully be a test to see who is the best stayer and not the best sprinter, are as follows.

Guyno is the form reverser, as he needs decent footing to perform and 2400m is perfect for the Perth stayer that really does love this trip.

His last start flop on a bog track at Randwick in the G1 Metropolitan (2400m) behind Speed Gifted can be forgotten and prior he had run a couple of super races for fifth since coming to Melbourne.

The gelding finished a not far away and slightly unlucky fifth in the Geelong Cup to Bauer last year and that horse missed winning the Melbourne Cup by a nose just under a fortnight later.

Guyno interestingly last won a race on New Years Day this year and scored over 2400m defeating The Fuzz (winner of the Geelong Cup in 2007).

Incidentally we find The Fuzz used to be trained in New Zealand by Wayne and Vanessa Hillis then joined the David Hayes stable but they have a runner this year in the Geelong Cup called Sterling Prince.

He is a strong gelding that has to date placed up to 2300m under 57kg and is in form, with back-to-back thirds at G1 under WFA in the first two legs of the Hawke's Bay Triple Crown over 1400m then 1600m then a last start sixth in the G1 Kelt Capital (2040m), also at WFA.

Sterling Prince was not far away in a tight cluttered finish and carried 3.5kg more than Daffodil for example, which finished fourth and one and a half lengths ahead at the post, and she last weekend finished a game fourth in the G1 Caulfield Cup.

Hugh Bowman will ride Sterling Prince and not many are riding better over spring in Melbourne at the moment than him.

Some other NZ trained runners in the Geelong Cup include Hoorang and Gallions Reach, with the former going a monster race last start at leviathan odds behind Alcopop in the G2 Herbert Power (2400m) and the latter last in all three runs this campaign at home.

Hoorang two starts back had her first run in Australia and went okay then backed up a week later and finished a super fifth, so you know she is fit and being an already G2 3200m winner (over Young Centaur it should be noted) the trip at Geelong is no worries.

Her off pace racing style could be her downfall in a sprint home affair but a middle barrier may see the mare able to settle down a shade closer than normal.

Gallions Reach has the perfect racing style, when fit and well, of racing in or near the lead and fighting off all challengers either on his inner or outer.

He loved a scrap and almost waited for rivals then brawled them into submission.

Unfortunately it may have caught up with him, as he has finished dead last back with the ambulance in all three runs this campaign at home and almost looking like a spent force.

His trainer Richard Yuill however has plenty of experience and would not be here to get run over by an 'Aussie ambulance' with Gallions Reach, so he must think the horse is fixable and can find form again.

Yuill produced Mandela fresh up under the topweight of 59kg to win the Listed Seymour Cup (1600m) last Sunday, which for an eight-year-old gelding is some training effort.

Glen Boss, who has won a Geelong Cup this century, takes the mount on Gallions Reach and that is good news but the bad news is his wide draw and the fact regular rider Sam Spratt did not think it was worth coming over from New Zealand for the ride.

Young Centaur had come to Melbourne early for New Zealand trainer John Sargent, along with stablemate Red Ruler, to prepare properly for the major races over the spring carnival.

The stayer had gone three good races since resuming and was percolating nicely towards competing in the Melbourne Cup until last start he ran an absolute shocker to finish a distant eleventh behind Alcopop in the G2 Herbert Power (2400m).

It was a terrible run for a horse that prior had been unlucky behind Alcopop at Moonee Valley and before that a good second to Speed Gifted over 1700m, when giving him 3.5kg.

Those two horses are on the top tier of Melbourne Cup chances right now, so normally you could dismiss that last start Caulfield failure by Young Centaur as one of those inexplicable things.

However the stablemate Red Ruler, which had also been going top races in the best WFA fields around prior, suddenly ran an awful distant last in the Caulfield Cup on the weekend.

I suspect the both runners have caught something or are on a downward form spiral and whatever the reason, the trainer should be very concerned and needs to regain peace of mind pronto.

Dan Nikolic, who has ridden both Sargent runners all spring has hoped off Young Centaur and will ride Leica Ding in the Geelong Cup for the in form stable of Darren Weir.

Craig Williams, in the media for all sorts of things of late, has picked up the Young Centaur ride and since he has won the Geelong Cup three times this century, it is not a bad booking.

Amazingly we find Williams has been the regular recent rider of Leica Ding, so musical chairs indeed seem to be in play.

Basaltico has to perform at Geelong to justify a Melbourne Cup start but after the ordinary effort by stablemate Cima De Triomphe in the Caulfield Cup, it is not hard to imagine Team Cumani wondering what has gone wrong.

Cima De Triomphe was trapped wide without cover all the way and Caulfield crucified anything quite brutally all week that raced overland but this horse did the same in the Arc in France and finished ninth beaten six lengths this time last year to the unbeaten Zarkava.

He dropped to a handicap at Caulfield and half a kilo but ended up thirteenth and beaten nine and a half lengths, which is just not a true reflection at all of his ability.

Four starts ago in May this year he beat Conduit and that high Timeform rated galloper was fourth in the Arc this year behind the freakish Sea The Stars.

Basaltico has not won a race for a year but it did come over 2400m though Team Cumani will, as you read this, be in utter shock but in a professional manner still go through a Melbourne campaign debrief regarding the Cima De Triomphe failure.

Damien Oliver, who has won two Geelong Cups this century, will ride Basaltico for Team Cumani and it is the same pairing that are at a loss after the Caulfield Cup last Saturday with Cima De Triomphe.

It is worth noting that each of the Oliver winners this century of the Geelong Cup, namely Media Puzzle and Bauer, went on at the next start to win the Melbourne Cup and finished second beaten a nose in it respectively.

Crime Scene is a grinder but likes 2400m and good footing, so Team Godolphin will be hoping he does better than main stable runner Kirklees did in the Caulfield Cup last Saturday.

Kirklees ran on a shade but by settling so far back and tracking what was thought to be the real danger, namely Cima De Triomphe, it all turned to custard 600m out when too far away and going nowhere wider out.

Interestingly we find Crime Scene has a super second up record, so whatever he does here expect colossal improvement in him next time out.

He is perfectly drawn on Wednesday at Geelong and his topweight is not insurmountable at G3 level but much like Team Cumani, we find the confidence levels of Team Godolphin at the moment dazed and confused after the Caulfield Cup.

Kerrin McEvoy rides and Team Godolphin are also not changing anything from the Caulfield Cup debacle with Kirklees, keeping the same rider up but on a different stable runner.

McEvoy has won two Geelong Cups this century, so he knows the race and track rather well.

The spring racing in Melbourne can never be written about unless the name Bart Cummings crops up at least once and the great man has the first and second ballots in the Geelong Cup this year, each hoping to get a run and needing to win to have any chance of getting a start in the Melbourne Cup.

His best chance of the two would appear to be Dandaad, which likes staying races plus it fires at this very time of the year.

Don't all of Bart's to be honest?

The last win by Dandaad came on Melbourne Cup Day last year, in the Lavazza Long Black (2800m), and the horse has raced nine times since and not even paid a dividend.

If you do not know by now what a Cummings special means (form means nothing with his runners at this time of the year) then you never will.

Dandaad is fourth up, if he gets a start, and ran in the Geelong Cup last year in that state ending up fifteenth of sixteen, but fifth up he won at Flemington the next start to show you form means nothing with his runners.

I wonder if he has similar aims this year with Dandaad or wants another runner in the Melbourne Cup this year to counter all those European raiders?

As an aside when are they going to put Bart on a stamp in Australia, as he has delivered so many times without fail to so many whether it be rain, hail or shine that people and the Postal Service for that matter would be proud to see his face on as much sent and welcomed mail as possible?

Six O'Clock News is the win selection for the Geelong Cup and Guyno the eachway chance for Betfair bettors.