Spring racing / Steve Mcghee / 20 October 2009 / Leave a comment Bet Now

Keep Control, Well Rounded and the visitor Southern Skye each have the rider, trainer or formlines that make them backable in the Geelong Classic too.

The picture for the G1 Victoria Derby (2500m) on Saturday week is almost complete but first we have to factor in a few from the Listed Geelong Classic (2206m) on Wednesday and then the AAMI Vase (2040m) on Cox Plate Day at Moonee Valley this Saturday.

There are two richly bred but lightly tried types in the Geelong Classic on Wednesday that can alter the markets for the G1 $1.5 million AAMI Victoria Derby (2500m) at Flemington on Saturday week.

There are also a couple of other runners in the field, at the top and the tail, which look prospects for either the VRC Derby or the VRC Oaks (2500m), depending on how they maintain their form or perform in the race.

OUR HEIR APPARENT is trained in New Zealand by Mark Walker at Matamata and the colt cost $900,000, so he is expected to back up his breeding on the track early and perhaps later at stud, although that is still in the scissors sitting in the lap of the equine gods.

The colt had been well trialled to get him ready for his debut and he was desperately unlucky over 1400m at Te Rapa, a track that is unforgiving and heavily biased towards off pacers most of the time.

He was backed heavily to start a clear favourite but began poorly from a midfield gate then got checked near the home turn and lost any chance.

It was to the credit of Our Heir Apparent he ran home late the outer for ninth to be beaten less than five lengths, as any lesser young horse would have tailed them in for sure.

There have been three next start winners from the race, including the second and third runners home, along with two close seconds from a limited number of starters from the race since.

The winner has since placed in a Ratings 70, while the runner up Smokin' Gun, is rated a real Derby type by both trainer and connections, so keep a look out for his name in any stamina test in New Zealand or Australia and fire away if the price is irresistible.

Smokin' Gun is by High Chaparral and they look instant quality stayers plus he is the sire of a major Victoria Derby hopeful already in Monaco Consul, which revelled in the wet ground last start at Randwick to win the G1 Spring Champion Stakes (2000m) easily.

Also perhaps the better colt by this sire, which could join him in the Derby or even win the Cox Plate in the meantime, is the exciting off pacer So You Think.

Our Heir Apparent rose 400m at his only other outing and at Taupo over 1800m demolished a poor field save the second runner, after coasting along fourth then making a run across the top then simply powering clear early in the run home.

The win was impressive and the four-length romp actually flattered the opposition, as he had double that to call on at the post.

His wide draw at Geelong will see him settle a lot further back than last start but with the ability to sustain such a long run, plus that super stamina breeding, the colt will give a sight.

The 2206m of the Listed Geelong Classic on Wednesday is another 400m or slightly longer distance jump for Our Heir Apparent but he has had the grounding and his trainer and connections suspect a more even Derby line up than the markets right now may show.

Walker usually brings an older runner to try for G1 kudos to Australia but to date he only has won just once at this level in this country despite countless attempts and it came with a juvenile, in a weak late season event at Queensland, so beware when he brings across a younger one.

Time students and same day distance comparison believers will be interested to know that Our Heir Apparent ran about nine lengths slower than a Ratings 80 held four races later in the card and won easily by the Irish bred mare Miss Sivivatu.

It is more relevant when you consider it was a stablemate in Miss Sivivatu that scored by almost six lengths and ran such a superior time, having cleared maidens the start before rather easily at the same track and at the same trip and in similar time to what Our Heir Apparent ran in the opening maiden event.

Miss Sivivatu looks a promising staying mare with the Magnier and Vela names in the ownership both heavyweights in thoroughbred circles.

Perhaps bookmakers wanting to take on Our Heir Apparent will be emboldened by the time difference and that the colt may be a victim of track bias at Geelong but he is a son of Zabeel that has a turn of foot and they are dangerous.

He was bred by Sir Patrick and Lady Hogan and is out of the Encosta De Lago dam La Quinta Gold, so he has a lot going for him.

Craig Williams is down to ride Our Heir Apparent at Geelong and interestingly he has ridden just one Victoria Derby winner to date, and it was another New Zealand bred in Kibbutz in 2007.

David Hayes trained Kibbutz then and Williams is no longer his go to man but the jockey can steer into a nice earning inheritance with Our Heir Apparent at firstly Geelong then Flemington.

ROCKFERRY gives trainer Danny O'Brien a second serious VRC Derby prospect, after Spacecraft looks one big young vessel already from his stable that is a major force.

He may not have cost the $900,000 that Our Heir Apparent did but Rockferry, the full brother to Xcellent, was no cheapy and in fact his purchase price was $550,000.

Xcellent of course won the G1 NZ Derby (2400m) at just his third start and then beat the older horses at WFA at start number four, in the G1 Darley (2000m), so this family certainly does deliver early.

The fact Australian racing enthusiasts never got to see the real Xcellent is apparent in his record, with four starts in Australia returning just a third place and a distant eight, ninth and eighteenth.

What that does not show is that the third came in the 2005 Melbourne Cup, the third in a row won by the great Makybe Diva, and that the misses by Xcellent all came at G1 and on a wet track in the AJC Derby, behind the great mare in the Cox Plate and fresh up after injury in the Stradbroke on a wet track behind Sniper's Bullet.

Rockferry already has a couple of things going for him over Xcellent in that he is intact in that department.

However he like Our Heir Apparent has just had two starts and won easily in his second outing plus it came in the first race on the card that day but Rockferry scored at Geelong over 2206m last time, which is the same track and trip he strikes on Wednesday.

He also ran a time in winning that was like Our Heir Apparent about nine lengths inferior to the only other winner at the same trip on the day.

Naval Escort, a handy young stayer that was capturing his second race in the Restricted 68 event, ran the superior time in the second race of the day and in one run since pulled too hard in the Listed The Bart Cummings (2500m) against much stronger proven opposition.

Rockferry outclassed a poor lot in winning last start but gapped them and relished the fire out of the track, so he has plenty of upside about him, as does Our Heir Apparent.

Hugh Bowman, who is riding so well in Melbourne at the moment over the spring carnival, takes the mount on Rockferry and he will have to be at his best because it has drawn the outside stall and is two wider out than Our Heir Apparent.

Michael Rodd rode Rockferry last start to that emphatic win but since he is riding Shamoline Warrior in the VRC Derby it was time to get a new jockey and the connections have snared a good one.

KEEP CONTROL is the topweight in the race and as a winner of two races already, he will carry 57kg but Damien Oliver will ride and that has to be a bonus.

Oliver has three Victoria Derby winners in the bank already, namely Redding (1992), Amalfi (2001) and Elvstroem (2003).

The in form stable of Ballarat trainer Darren Weir prepares Keep Control and the last start Listed winner over 1800m does look under-rated by many for such a stout finisher and staying related colt.

How the form stacks up in the staying three-year-old ranks at the moment will not be a surprise to Oliver, who has ridden Rockferry (on debut) and Shamoline Warrior three times (a Listed win over 1800m and a fourth and a seventh at Listed level too) along with Iquit (twice for one placing).

He is clearly still on the prowl for a Derby mount and Keep Control could be the best he can get at such late notice.

Down the bottom of this field at Geelong on Wednesday we find the lone filly in WELL ROUNDED, and bettors need to look again at this lass.

Her trainer Lee Freedman has G1 Crown Oaks (2500m) aspirations with this filly and is taking an unorthodox path to her grand final day but it is safe to assume he knows what he is doing.

He runs her against the lads here over 2206m and meets probably a stronger field than he expected, such as the three names mentioned above, but one has to like her progression this campaign.

Well Rounded is a daughter of the Zabeel stallion Reset, so stamina should not be an issue and her four runs this season all showed improvement and learning.

She did have two starts as a juvenile last season up North in Canberra and then Newcastle but since joining the Freedman stable this season it is all going well.

A fresh up maiden win was followed by an honest fourth in a field that the runner up was the talented Majestic Music (a G2 and Listed winner since then last start a luckless but not far seventh in the G1 Thousand Guineas).

Next start Well Rounded finished a not far away fourth on slow ground over a mile in a handy filly field that has since produced a winner and some sound efforts.

Last start she placed third at Morphettville in the Listed Hill Stakes (1800m), when running on strongly from the back behind Keep Control and she meets him again here.

This time however the filly gets a 4kg buffer from the colt and just over 400m more to try and run him down, where as in the Hill Stakes she got just 2kg relief from him.

Dwayne Dunn, the first choice stable rider for Freedman, will pilot Well Rounded for the first time on Wednesday and that is a positive sign.

One other name in this Geelong three-year-old Listed staying event that bettors need to consider and may well back, if the price is right to quote a long running game show, is SOUTHERN SKYE.

This visitor down from the Paul Perry stables at Newcastle is very raceday experienced already and has two wins to his name plus being by the sire Danasinga you can lock in that staying is his caper.

Southern Skye looked all at sea in the wet last start in the G1 Spring Champion Stakes (2000m) at Randwick, which was won easily by the clear second Victoria Derby pick at this stage behind Shamoline Warrior in Monaco Consul.

Prior to that last start miss Southern Skye had finished an honest six length fifth in the G3 Gloaming Stakes (1800m) behind the super colt So You Think, which could win the Cox Plate this Saturday if they let him into the field.

So You Think could himself slay the Victoria Derby field but that is dependent on where the Bart Cummings stable decides to go after the Cox Plate or if they go the AAMI Vase on the same day then the Derby.

The field strength that Southern Skye at times has competed against will put him in good stead for Wednesday at Geelong and with rider Dan Nikolic aboard I feel this is the key.

Nikolic already knows this gelding, as when he was re-establishing himself in Sydney last season he rode Southern Skye twice in juvenile events for a sixth then a win.

The win came at big odds and over Gathering, and that colt since in five more starts has won once and placed four times (at G1, G2 and G3 level), so he has not missed paying a dividend.

Gathering before he came down to Melbourne last start and ran third to Shamoline Warrior and stablemate Onemorenomore in the G3 Norman Robinson (2000m) had finished second in the G1 Spring Champion Stakes (2000m) to Monaco Consul and second before that in the G3 Gloaming Stakes (1800m) to So You Think.

This is all the right formline of the big players come Derby time and does it not put Southern Skye right in the frame at lowly Listed level at Geelong midweek?