Melbourne Cup / Editor / 02 November 2009 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

Is this the weakest Melbourne Cup field since 1985, when John Meagher's stayer What A Nuisance, so dour people assumed it was bred in Scotland, saluted the judge? (Pat Hyland rode; Lloyd Williams owned).

I'm open to argument - maybe 1987 (Kensei) or 1989 (Tawriffic) or even 2000 (Brew) were just as weak - but I think there's little doubt tomorrow's Cup is sub-standard, and not least because the foreign contenders are absolute no-hopers.

In the time-honoured turf tradition I've decided to write this blog under an equine pseudonym: Mentor, who won Australia's greatest race in 1888. And here's the thing: I reckon Mentor could back up at 3pm tomorrow and give at least half the field a run for their money. Makybe Diva could come out of retirement and beat them after warming up with a barrier trial. And if we could reanimate Phar Lap we could run the race like the Stawell Gift: he could give this lot 200m start and you'd knock the bagmen off their stands to take evens.

I've been betting on the Cup since 1973 (Gala Supreme, and I was on) and I don't think I've ever seen a field where you can put the red pencil through 18 runners without even thinking about it. But you can with this lot. Of course I may be proven wrong, but that's racing: all you can do is have a go.

But I know I'm not wrong about this: it's a disgrace that the VRC Board did not use its discretionary powers to elevate Danny O'Brien's Vigor into the Cup field. Vigor is a form horse, placed in the Caulfield Cup (always a good guide to the Big One) and a Flemington specialist. If he was running tomorrow he's be under 10-1, that is, a 40th of the price of Gallions Reach (and that horse should be 1000-1 anyway).

Here's what VRC chief executive Dale Monteith had to say about the decision to keep Vigor out of the Cup:

Our policy when determining the final field is to look at the 24 horses in the initial order of entry. The board could not find a reason to exclude any horses in the 24 for not having form that would warrant a Cup start.

Could not find a reason? Well, I'm just a punter, but how about these, off the top of my head: Warringah has won two races and $100,000 in prizemoney ... Gallions Reach's lead-up races are a dismal 13th in Geelong Cup and a 5th in the Bendigo Cup ... Crime Scene isn't good enough, and the same could be said for a dozen others.
Okay, enough complaining. And as my punting mentor, my late grandfather Dave, would say, there's no point going on about how Phar Lap would pick up this field and carry them because he ain't running tomorrow.

So what do I think will win? In a word: Viewed. This horse reminds me a bit of the great Diva. He was 40-1 when he won his first Cup in 2008, he'll be a lot shorter when he wins tomorrow and don't be at all surprised if next year he wins it again, and the Cox Plate along the way. This is a Very Serious racehorse, never more so than in his current preparation. From his terrific first-up run and in every run subsequent to that he has had the look of a horse that has furnished into a class act.

I think there are only two dangers: Alcopop, because he could be anything (of course he could also be overrated; we'll find out tomorrow) and Roman Emperor, because of the Bart factor, the Caulfield Cup placing and the fact he's the only Derby winner in the field who is in form. (A caveat there: Fumicino's form is better than it looks, but I think he needs a wet track).

Looking to outsiders for the trifectas and first fours, I would throw in Shocking and Leica Ding. But, really, I can not see either of those finishing in front of Viewed.

So, I will have eyes for one horse only at 3pm tomorrow: Viewed.

I look forward to sharing my thoughts with you on this blog, provided Betfair will continue to humour me. A bit of background: I'm a Sydney-based journalist, I've been following the races for 30-plus years. That means the best horse I have seen in Kingston Town. I am not and never have been a racing writer (you have to keep the things you truly love separate from work), but I hope my musings on the turf will provide some entertainment for readers of this blog.

Good luck to all tomorrow.

Mentor