Melbourne Cup / Editor / 02 November 2009 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

The Melbourne Cup perennially throws up an unexpected result resulting in punting frustration at missed opportunities. Here is an inspection of this year's contenders and the reasons to BACK or LAY each runner. Writes Brad Thompson

1. VIEWED (9) - Bart Cummings, Brad Rawiller, 58kg
- Last year's Melbourne Cup winner finished off stylishly in Saturday's Mackinnon Stakes. Proclaimed by Bart as his best hope to deliver his 13th Cup, and is clearly on track for successive victories in this race. The one to beat.
- Carries an extra 5kg on last year's effort to lug 58kg (2.5kg more than any other runner) in the 2009 edition. But in reality should count himself lucky he's not carrying 59kg after his dominant Caulfield Cup win. Suffered superficial cuts after being galloped on in the Mackinnon, but still hit the line strongly suggesting this is of no concern.

2. C'EST LA GUERRE (9) - John Sadler, Nick Hall, 55.5kg
- Ran a slashing third in this race last year. Wasn't beaten far in the Turnbull behind Efficient. Stays under notice due to his staying pedigree and last year's fast finish, which indicates  he is certain to run the two miles right out strongly. The 6yo is now Lloyd Williams' sole chance in the race following the scratchings of Efficient and Zipping.
-Was a long way off them in the Caulfield Cup, and his overall form this campaign has been disappointing. Hasn't won since the NZ Derby 18 months ago, and is searching for the sting out of the ground - He won't get it here.

3. FIUMICINO (24) - Team Hawkes, Steven King, 55.5kg
- Honest staying type not unfamiliar with winning big races. AJC Derby and BMW winner in the wet, but has won at G2 level in Sydney on a good track. Battled on gamely for fifth behind Viewed in the Caulfield Cup. Grows an extra leg if rain comes.
-Predominantly a wet-tracker, but has also failed over the 3200m distance in Sydney. Best finish at Flemington is 6th and although the barrier is generally of little concern he is drawn the widest.

4. MASTER O'REILLY (16) - Danny O'Brien, Vlad Duric, 55.5kg
- 2007 Caulfield Cup winner who finished off strongly in last year's Melbourne Cup for fourth. Form this preparation has been sound, finishing his races off with intent and showing he once again relish the two miles. Sectionals in this year's Caulfield Cup were superb. Expect him to be fighting out the finish.
-Hasn't won since the 2007 Caulfield Cup, and unplaced at this distance.

5. MOURILYAN (14) - Herman Brown, Glyn Schofield, 54.5kg
- Well-travelled South African-trained galloper with two placings over the two-mile trip, including the G2 Goodwood Cup. Astute trainer Herman Brown is sure to have him trained to the minute after a nine-week let-up, and with 54.5kg on his back he won't know himself. Under-rated former South African, now Sydney hoop Glyn Schofield takes the ride.
-First Australian run, and will be need to be trained to perfection to be ready to run out a strong 3200m after a nine-week break. Best performances have been just below G1 level.

6. ROMAN EMPEROR (15) - Bart Cummings, Hugh Bowman, 54kg
- AJC Derby winner presented with the Cummings polish. Second-placed behind stable-mate Viewed in the Caulfield Cup and arguably could have won with a more favourable run. Breeding (By Montjeu) suggests the trip shouldn't be of concern.
-Unplaced in first Flemington run in the Turnbull, and has only saluted the judge first on two occasions - only once in group company. Possibly a touch over-rated due to the Cummings factor, but who could question the great man's ability to produce Cups winners. First try at the two miles.

7.ISTA KAREEM (23) - Colin Little, Luke Nolen, 53.5kg
- Group 1 winner at the 3200m, and caught the eye in the Bart Cummings over 2520m at Flemington a couple of starts ago. Top-10 finish wouldn't surprise.
-The Melbourne Cup is yet to be won by a nine-year-old, and it's debatable whether he has the class to win this.

8. CRIME SCENE (11) - Saeed Bin Suroor, Kerrin McEvoy, 53kg
- From the power-house Godolphin stable, and is sure to have benefited from his maiden Australian run in the Geelong Cup when he loomed up only to find his condition give out over the concluding stages. Has won over the distance in Dubai
-Looks to lack the class, and Godolphin have been trying to raid this race for years - without success.

9. MUNSEF (5) - Ian Williams, Zac Purton, 53kg
- Beat home Basaltico in August over 2700m at Chester. Races best fresh and that is what he will be on Tuesday.
-No Australian lead-up run, no form over the 3200m trip, and was beaten convincingly by Kirklees and Barbaricus in Dubai earlier in the year.

10. ZAVITE (3) - Anthony Cummings, Mark Zahra, 53kg
- Brave front-running type who won over the gruelling 3200m journey in this year's Adelaide Cup. Likely to make play out in front for a long way.
-Class query, is probably just a rung below the premier stayers of Australia.

11. ALCOPOP (12) - Jake Stephens, Dom Tourneur, 52.5kg
- Is the fairy-tale story of the spring, and the Melbourne Cup. Has a fantastic finishing sprint, and his once-queried form was franked with Shocking's decisive win on Saturday, who he trounced in the Herbert Power Relaxed type who travels beautifully in the run, and his Father, Jeune won this race in 1994. Can't knock winning form.
-Three an- ahalf-week break, never raced in front of a huge crowd and untried at the two miles.

12. HARRIS TWEED (20) - Murray and Bjorn Baker, Craig Newitt, 52.5kg
- New Zealander who ran on well for second behind Roman Emperor in the AJC Derby. Might be looking for 3200m now.
-Looks to be more adept in rain-affected ground, and has shown nothing this campaign to indicate he will figure here.

13. KIBBUTZ (8) - Jarrod McLean, Chris Symons, 52.5kg
- 2007 VRC Derby winner who showed a glimpse of a return to form with a close-up fourth in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup. Trainer has been adamant he is going well.
-Hasn't won since the VRC Derby in 2007, and has had his share of problems. Last start fourth probably flattered his below par campaign.

14. NEWPORT (18) - Paul Perry, Peter Wells, 52.5kg
- Finished off OK behind Viewed in Saturday's Mackinnon, and won the G1 Metropolitan twelve months ago. Finished tenth in this race last year, and shouldn't have problems running the trip.
-An absolute head-case of a horse if he doesn't want to be at the races. Best form has been on wet tracks.

15. WARRINGAH (17) - Chris Waller, Damien Oliver, 52.5kg
- Imported galloper having his first run for under-rated trainer Chris Waller. Close-up fifth when carrying big weight in the Ebor, and that race has proved to be a form indicator in recent Cups. Damien Oliver on board.
- Form is difficult to line up, and would have preferred to see a lead-up run on our shores.

16. GALLIONS REACH (6) - Richard Yuill, Dwayne Dunn, 52k
- Group 1 winner in New Zealand, and narrowly beaten over the Cup trip of 3200m in the Auckland Cup.
-Average efforts in Geelong and Bendigo Cups suggest the owners (who overrided the trainer's wishes to run here) are just in it for free tickets to the Cup.

17. SPIN AROUND (4) - Steven Cooper, Mark Du Plessis, 52kg
- Auckland Cup winner over the two miles.
-Below-par efforts in the Geelong and Bendigo Cups. Horses with rushed preparations like his don't win Melbourne Cups.

18. BASALTICO (10) - Luca Cumani, Danny Nikolic, 51.5kg
- Impressive form in Italy last year, and was unlucky in the Geelong Cup making up lengths in the latter stages. Trainer knows how to prepare a horse for the Melbourne Cup, just missing out the last two years. Must be respected with the light weight.
-Came here as a second stringer for the stable.

19. CAPECOVER (19) - Alexander Fieldes, Noel Harris, 51.5kg
- Kerrin McEvoy convinced the trainer to push on to the Cup, following his seventh in the Bendigo Cup. Won the G3 Queen Elizabeth Stakes last spring.
-Looks a level or two below stayers of this calibre, and has been well beaten over3200m.

20. DAFFODIL (21) - Kevin Gray, Chris Munce, 51.5kg
- Runaway winner or the AJC Oaks who also finished strongly for fourth behind Viewed in the Caulfield Cup. The two-mile distance won't pose any problems and looks a big chance.
-Wide barrier of some concern, and was disappointing in the Kelt Capital Stakes two starts back.

21. SHOCKING (22) - Mark Kavanagh, Corey Brown, 51kg
- Couldn't have been more impressive winning the Lexus Stakes at Flemington on Saturday, after running well behind Alcopop previously. Corey Brown in the saddle is a plus he'll l be looking to avenge the heartache of last year on Bauer.
-Renowned for ducking in behind horses under pressure, and the barrier might pose a few early headaches.

22. ALLEZ WONDER (13) - Bart Cummings, Michelle Payne, 50.5kg
- Lightweight hope for the master, Bart Cummings, after winning the Toorak Handicap.
-Might not be seasoned enough to conquer her toughest test yet, and didn't finish off in the Caulfield Cup.

23. CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD (1) - David Hayes, Glen Boss, 50.5kg
- Close-up second in Ebor Handicap, traditionally a good pointer for this race. Weighted nicely and the Hayes stable must be respected.
-Preparation was hampered by a foot abscess, and form is difficult to assess.

24. LECIA DING (2) - Darren Weir, Craig Williams, 50.5kg
- Geelong Cup winner, a form race that has stood up well in recent years. Has long been touted a Cup contender and will stay the journey with no weight.
-Swift class rise and queries on class look to be her biggest obstacles.

Top 6
1. Leica Ding
2. Roman Emperor
3. Alcopop
4. Efficient
5. Viewed
6. Shocking

Best roughies
1. C'est La Guerre
2. Warringah
3. Shocking