Horse racing / Andy Morris / 21 July 2008 / Leave a comment Bet Now

The highlight of the Caulfield Spring Carnival, the Caulfield Cup is one of Australia's richest throughbred horse races. Read in depth anaysis of who will win and how the race may be won.

The skill and acumen of thoroughbred trainer Luca Cumani to set thoroughbreds to win international G1 feature races from the Bedford House stables has been on display for more than three decades and his results have impressively scored top of the class on almost every continent.

When he sends horses down under to Australia for either the Caulfield or Melbourne Cup or for that matter a qualifying race to gain a start in those feature events then bettors need to engage not only their hearts and minds but their online wagering accounts and associated wallet-plastic too.

Cumani is a major reason why Cima de Triomphe can win the 2009 G1 $2.5 million BMW Caulfield Cup (2400m) because the galloper is certainly classy enough and you just know he will be perfectly acclimatized and prepared from his arrival in Melbourne on September 26 through to the starting stalls on October 17.

Cima de Triomphe is a top of the ground stayer and therefore suited to any unforgiving footing that may be on offer at either Caulfield or Flemington, which tells you the Cups in Melbourne have long been penciled in for this five-year-old.

The grey entire brings in raceday form threads that shine well above anything he will encounter in the Caulfield Cup and one only has to consider the Cumani results in the last two years since sending horses down for the Melbourne spring carnival to realize you leave them out at your pecuniary peril.

Cumani in 2007 sent down under Purple Moon, a son of Galileo it should be noted like Cima de Triomphe, with the galloper running a slashing and late closing sixth in the Caulfield Cup before being beaten half a length in the Melbourne Cup to finish second behind the local grey Efficient.

Cima de Triomphe is a stunning looking grey himself, so it should not surprise what Cumani sent down last year, namely another grey in Bauer and the at the time much better performed Mad Dash.

Bauer won the G3 Geelong Cup (2400m) easily and qualified for the Melbourne Cup in the process, while stablemate Mad Dash caught the eye getting home attractively late for fourth in the Caulfield Cup.

Cumani then produced the pair in the Melbourne Cup, with Bauer finishing second and just a forever sleep-affecting nose away from victory while Mad Dash ended up an honest seventh beaten six lengths and feeling the hard track.

One could infer the Caulfield Cup is the race Cumani is yet to have any luck in whatsoever, even after close seconds in the last two Melbourne Cups, as it is simply the photo-finish that is not delivering for him on the first Tuesday in November but at Caulfield his two runners to date have gone rippers but neither paid a dividend.

Cima de Triomphe is the perfect horse to right that Caulfield Cup wrong but also it can add to an already impressive record for Team Cumani since sending gallopers down under for the Melbourne spring carnival.

Cima de Triomphe has 55.5kg in the Caulfield Cup, which is more than enough considering the recent winning weight history of the race, and he has only tackled 2400m twice before but he races now like the trip will strengthen his chances seeing he can sustain a long run then still find again off a flat patch.

You just know some serious hill work at home in picturesque surroundings with calming company in both ear and eye shot has been part of his daily diet in preparation for this visit to Victoria.

His last start fourth in the G1 Arlington Million (2000m) in America, when beaten seven and a half lengths on a turf course that was rain-affected and therefore no help whatsoever for the natural firm tracker, saw him settle fifth or sixth the outer then lose his position badly across the top and get quickly spat out the back to be last and wide nearing the home turn.

He was left flat-footed and copped some strife on the home turn trying to get around them all before taking a while to wind up and find the line for a distant but luckless fourth.

The key for me is he could not quicken suddenly at Arlington, when many others did suddenly in that race near the home turn, and as a result found some trouble but the way he keeps trying and lifting late will stand him in good stead for the Caulfield Cup.

It may well ensure a much earlier move is made at Caulfield, where the home turn has proven tighter and trickier than expected for many previous visitors, to find clear air ahead and allow his wind up time to not be compromised.

The run at Arlington screamed too me he wants more than 2000m the next time Cumani produces him and hence why the Caulfield Cup (2400m) under handicap conditions is absolutely ideal in both field strength and distance terms.

Cima de Triomphe finished ninth beaten six lengths in the 2008 G1 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (2400m) behind the absolutely freakish and unbeaten filly Zarkava (7 starts for 7 wins before being retired) and the run was more than just brave and tough considering the soft footing on the day was against him too.

He ended up being eighth or ninth in the running but was left three-wide, which against one of the hottest fields assembled anywhere in the world that year for international depth is almost a certain recipe for distant defeat.

I was impressed by the way Cima de Triomphe was able to surge forward four and five wide near the final turn at Longchamp and despite being carted even deeper upon straightening up for the run home he was still able to loom as a brief threat centre track.

He hit that customary flat patch just inside the last 300m but considering the extra ground covered throughout against this level of field, in which his starting price was 150-1 to show you how strong the opposition really was across the board, that is no disgrace whatsoever in analyzing his Caulfield Cup prospects.

Even more poignantly the grey did not drop away at this point of the home straight and in fact dug in the last 100m, with some amazing international names not that far ahead, around and behind him at the post.

If he can reproduce something even near that Arc effort and remember he is a much stronger horse now a year on from the famed first Sunday in October, then Cima de Triomphe will win the 2009 Caulfield Cup easily on class alone combined with that will to never give in.

There is more substantial proof that Cima de Triomphe is the true horse to beat in the 2009 Caulfield Cup, if you are still somehow wavering on his sound Arc effort last spring.

Cima de Triomphe beat Conduit in the G3 Brigadier Gerard Stakes (2000m) this year, albeit when in receipt of seven pounds, but that runner would be a hot favourite if entered in the 2009 Caulfield Cup to give you more punting perspective and confidence.

Conduit is very relevant for Cups bettors this spring in Melbourne in terms of big race reality, as he has beaten and met many rated entrants or international benchmark gallopers in the last twelve months and currently has a Timeform rating of 130.

He demolished Unsung Heroine by three lengths in the G1 St Leger Stakes (3000m) in September last year and that mare was surprisingly paying a lot less than Cima de Triomphe up until recently to win the Melbourne Cup.

Conduit finished a distant third in the G1 Coral-Eclipse (2000m) behind the current Timeform rating titan Sea The Stars (140) and distant number two on the list Rip Van Winkle (134), where poignantly just half a length behind him in fourth place at the line was none other than Cima de Triomphe for yet another outstanding form thread of proven strength.

Conduit unsurprisingly won his last start comfortably as the hot favourite in the G1 King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2400m) sponsored by Betfair.

I must repeat that Cima de Triomphe beat Conduit, albeit by a nose and with seven pounds weight relief, by burying it on the line over 2000m and that is yet another compelling reason to say it will win the Caulfield Cup on quality alone.

There are so many uplifting facts and figures around Cima de Triomphe that one cannot help but be impressed with the showy grey entire that is still paying at least double what his quote should be right at the moment even though already booked to come and entered into quarantine.

Entires have won three of the last five Caulfield Cups, namely All The Good (6h-2008), Tawqeet (5h-2006) and Elvstroem (4h-2004), while the fastest ever time to win the race was set by an entire, namely Diatribe (4h-2000) in coming from the rear via a short way home and clocking a slick 2:25.3 for the 2400m.

Only five of the last twenty Caulfield Cup victors have paid double figures to win, so Cima de Triomphe should be backed strongly into single figures and then rightly become part of that seventy five per cent win strike rate for that particular price range.

Cima de Triomphe has won easily before over 2000m freshened up after a nine to ten week gap between races, which is about what state he will be in for the 2009 Caulfield Cup.

Two of his best three career performances came second up after a spell or decent freshen up, namely his G1 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe ninth and his G3 Brigadier Gerard Stakes win, so still keep the G1 Melbourne Cup in mind if Cumani lines him up again after Caulfield.

Francesca Cumani, the experienced international travelling foreman and daughter of trainer Luca Cumani, does an outstanding job and she is often more the focus of attention in Australia than whatever quality horse she is riding at the time.

She turns heads in trackwork more than the mount she is on but that works brilliantly and keeps extra attention away from the Cumani runner or runners, even if the galloper is himself a looker too such as Cima de Triomphe.

There is nothing like deflecting attention away to make things run smoother and more stress free, so once again the planning, preparation and path to a major international race is now completely down to a fine art for Team Cumani.

Cima de Triomphe interestingly is owned by Teruya Yoshida, whose brother Katsumi owned the 2006 Melbourne Cup winner Delta Blues, so you just know that some family banter has taken place since regarding the great times had at that particular spring carnival in Melbourne and clearly bragging rights are now on the line again.

Delta Blues finished a monumental third in the 2006 Caulfield Cup, when sent forward off the track a long way out and sustaining a tremendously brave run to be beaten just two necks, and would go on to win the Melbourne Cup seventeen days later.

A top-eight finish in the Caulfield Cup will get Cima de Triomphe past the ballot clause for the Melbourne Cup, a race Cumani has said is not his main target, but things can change if a horse really thrives down under.

A win by Cima de Triomphe in the Caulfield Cup sadly may weight him out of being any realistic chance in the Melbourne Cup, as he already has 55.5kg and would be looking bare minimum at a 2kg penalty if successful.

Hence it is the Caulfield Cup that is the main focus for Cima de Triomphe and you never know, the rider could well end up being the controversial Irish jockey Keiren Fallon just back from a lengthy suspension and all manner of headlines in recent years.

Fallon has experienced the Melbourne spring carnival before, as he rode the topweight Yeats in the 2006 Melbourne Cup to finish a gutsy seventh behind Delta Blues, and he was aggressive a fair way out to pour on the pressure and see who could really stay and who could not.

That sort of approach but on a lesser scale in ferocity and obviously nowhere near as far out as he applied the blowtorch aboard Yeats could in fact be the perfect tactic in a race like the Caulfield Cup, as the track is far less roomy and more turning plus quick decisions across the top do get rewarded more often than not.

The camera and print coverage could well initially all be focussed on Francesca and Keiren should one or both arrive in Melbourne and Cima de Triomphe will be forgotten for large periods by the media but that works just fine to get on with the business of getting him to the post relaxed and ready to win.

There is some nice linkage with history and greatness through the Cima de Triomphe story as a racehorse and what he ran in and won and who prepared and rode him.

Cima de Triomphe won the Derby Italiano in 2008, which was the last running of the race as a G1 event (a G1 since the early 1970s when the current grading system first came into being), as it is now a G2 event.

The race was also being run over 2200m for the first time in 2008 when Cima de Triomphe scored in 2:14.6, which is nearly a dozen lengths faster than what the Godolphin winner Mastery clocked this year, after having been a typical 2400m classic for nearly a century and a quarter prior.

Mastery won the G1 English St Leger (3000m) at Doncaster over the weekend lowering the colours of some big names in the race including his more favoured stablemate Kite Wood (finished second) and the Melbourne Cup entrant Changingoftheguard (very disappointing) in the process.

Bettors should really have a closer look at the Italian Derby form as a serious future form reference again, especially after the Mastery win, and it makes Cima de Triomphe read rather super time-wise in comparison too.

The race is run at Capannelle in Rome and is for three-year-old colts and fillies and amazingly it was originally reserved only for horses born and bred in Italy but that all changed in 1981.

Bruno Grizzetti trained and Silvani Mulas rode Cima de Triomphe to win the 2008 G1 Italian Derby, with of course the Newmarket based Cumani now preparing the galloper.

Cumani himself has prepared the winner of the Italian Derby before, with Old Country scoring over a quarter of a century ago in 1982 and the masterful Pat Eddery was the rider.

Eddery of course holds the record of four wins in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (the 2008 running of which saw Cima de Triomphe run double figure lengths above what is required to win the Caulfield Cup this year, so take off his six length margin of defeat and it leaves plenty to spare) that he shares with another legendary rider in Lester Piggott.

Interestingly too we find Eddery in 1983 won the G1 Arlington Million aboard the three-year-old Tolomeo trained by Cumani and of course last start saw Cima de Triomphe finish a luckless fourth in that race.

Grizzetti has prepared another winner of the Italian Derby, with a galloper called Rakti in 2002 that on his day could blow away G1 opposition and did so six times in his career.

Central Park won the Italian Derby in 1998 for the powerful Godolphin racing stables and that galloper would try for an end to end win in the 1999 Melbourne Cup before going down at 50-1 to Rogan Josh in finishing second beaten half a length.

The unbeaten super Italian horse, super sire and super bloodline Nearco (14 starts for 14 wins) won the 1938 Italian Derby and his influence on the thoroughbred breeding world is unrivalled.

Nearco was bred by Frederico Tesio, the leading Italian thoroughbred breeder and breeding theorist of his era, who also bred another unbeaten superstar galloper in Ribot (16 starts for 16 wins).

He may not have lived to see the track greatness of Ribot, which won the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe twice and by big margins each time, but what a racehorse, sire and influence this one turned out to be too.

Not many people breed or even have anything to do with one let alone two out and out champion unbeaten racehorses, sires and major influences on thoroughbred racing worldwide.

Ribot would win his only race in England too, fittingly the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes, and was given the fourth equal highest Timeform rating ever of 142.

Sea Bird (145), Brigadier Gerard (144) and Tudor Minstrel (144) are the only three names rated above Ribot, Abernant (142) and Windy City (142) tied for fourth.

If I have not got your attention by now on Cima De Triomphe as a potentially good financial earner for the Caulfield Cup or at least purely got you onside from a thoroughbred racing linkage and historical aspect, then you are very hard markers.

The grey can prevail on the day of October 17, in as imperial manner as his name suggests because the planning, preparation and path to the Caulfield Cup has already been set in motion and it is impossible to overlook that Cumani professional polish when they arrive in Australia with a serious racehorse.

Good price finding or price setting to your satisfaction for the 2009 Caulfield Cup.

Caulfied cup bets - last year was all about the favourites

It is the richest 2400m handicap in the world, and held annually by the Melbourne Racing Club.

Traditionally, the best way to enjoy the big race is to indulge in Caulfield Cup betting. And those seeking pointers to the winner should not ignore the favourite.

Last year's win for Master O'Reilly was the fifth time in seven years that the favourite has won the race, the five-year-old gelding coming home with Caulfield Cup odds of 8-1.

Four years in a row from 2001-2005, those backing the favourite in Caulfield Cup betting were left smiling when Ethereal, Northerly, Mummify and Elvstroem came home first.

The race is not exclusively the domain of favourites, however. Tawqeet upset the formbook in 2006 when David Hayes' five-year-old won at Caulfield Cup odds of 16-1.

Greg Childs has two race wins during that time, Northerly defying weight of 58 kg in 2002 then three years later Railings triumphing at Caulfield Cup odds of 15-2.

Racegoers got to see one of the top Australasian horses of the 21st century when Ethereal won the big race in 2001. That year, besides rewarding those who had backed him with Caulfield Cup bets, the New Zealand mare won the Doomben Roses, Queensland Oaks and finally the Melbourne Cup.

Ethereal, who won more than $4.7 million in prize money before being retired the following year, is one of five horses since 1980 to have done the "cups double" by winning both the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups.

Other horses to have won both in the same year are Mighty Power (1997), Doriemus (1995), Let's Elope (1991) and Gurner's Lane (1982).

One factor that influences where much of the Caulfield Cup bets go is barrier position, and number 12 is the luckiest. Since 2002, 15 per cent of horses have won over 2400m from barrier 12, over 20 races.

Barriers four to six by contrast tend not to reward punters in Caulfield Cups betting or other 2400m races - each has a 6.3 per cent strike rate - while barrier 11 is surely one to avoid with a strike rate of just 4.5 per cent.

Studying the record of trainers is one clue to placing successful Caulfield Cup bets. Bart Cummings holds the record for the race with six wins - twice with Ming Dynasty and also with Galilee, Big Philou, Leilani and Let's Elope.