Cox Plate / Steve Mcghee / 22 October 2009 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

Race one MERGER BENEFITS is out of a speedy on-pacer mare and being by the smart sire of youngsters in More Than Ready I see this debutant from the Anthony Cummings stable kicking of the day well.

Just to make sure the 'son of Bart' does not catch you out in the opening event, he has another first starter in SECRET DESTINY and this filly is well drawn and has the services of Damien Oliver. She is also by the long-time proven youngster sire in Flying Spur, himself a top juvenile and of course the 1995 G1 Golden Slipper winner.

Race Two

JOHANSKI has gone decent races this season but is yet to win, however she will not get a better chance than right here from a nice draw at a nice weight. Her last two runs have seen indifferent luck in the running but despite that she has finished close up each time. The last start for eighth of course came at G1 in a race of no pressure the middle stages and handed to the favourite sitting outside the leader, so her effort was more than honest. Three and four starts back she ran into the talented Jolie Brise, a rival again today, but each time she carried 1kg more and was not disgraced, while here she gets 5.5kg relief for a gigantic 6.5kg turnaround to make up basically two lengths. When you factor in that trainer Tony Vasil has a superb strike rate at Moonee Valley, the answer is that this is the filly to be on.

Race Three

All the speed and power is drawn the ace and two gate here, so unless you have barrier three then your chances to bury them are getting slimmer by the second. The flying filly AVENUE is unbeaten in two runs at Moonee Valley and at 56kg she will come out like a started rabbit from the ace, with the topweight COMMON INTEREST sure to keep her company throughout. Avenue was thought to be aiming at the straight track of Flemington next Saturday in the G1 Coolmore Stud Stakes (1200m) against her age group but is in here around a turn on a tight track that suits. Maybe her trainer Peter Moody sees this G3 event as a far easier kill and a more suitable race for his speedy charge, as she does rail like she is glued to the aluminium. Common Interest won his only start at Moonee Valley two starts back and if he stalks Avenue then will get the first crack at the gun filly turning for home. Last start he tackled the all comers in the G2 Schillaci Stakes (1000m) under WFA conditions at Caulfield and was far from disgraced in a record run race. He may go up 4kg here but have no doubt, he drops double that at least in class. The runner from barrier three and in theory 'drawn to get the drop' is MARQUARDT, which found the line nicely late last start at Caulfield, where she drew badly. I see massive improvement in her for today and the barrier gives her every chance to get the last surge at them and cause a minor upset. Last start she got 2.5kg from Avenue and was beaten five and a half lengths at the post by that flyer, so normally with the same weight gap here you would concede defeat. However her draw is so important in this and she did have the blinkers off last time, so the experience and concentration levels will be improved this time.

Race Four

ALL AMERICAN was stiff last start at $21 in the G1 Toorak (1600m), as the rider copped all sorts of traffic and strife back on the inner then hooked out across several heels ahead on the home turn, when having a heap to offer, only to find an impregnable wall ahead. The winner of the race shot through one-off, so the decision not to wait and hope room appeared closer in ahead proved expensive. I know that All American has burnt the fingerprints of bettors by now (he last won a race in March 2008) but with a change of rider to Damien Oliver and meeting a small field here it may well finally fall into place on Saturday. All American has an exceptional record at Moonee Valley, with four runs to date returning two wins, a second to Whobegotyou (unbeaten in four runs on the track and the hot favourite for the Cox Plate) in the G2 Stutt Stakes (1600m) and a luckless ninth beaten three lengths under WFA in the G1 Manikato (1200m). He has never really failed on the track and even his 1600m record overall is misleading, with a luckless fourth last autumn in Sydney to go with that last start blockage. RAFFAELLO has come back strong this campaign, with a win and an unlucky third then last start the race was not run to suit plus he copped interference in the home straight, where others struck the same shifting wall ahead. He is drawn out here but could be part of yet another super training day for Mark Kavanagh, who when he wins one on big racedays likes to keep the vibe going and nab a couple more. The two course runs by Raffaello to date have seen nothing but trouble, with a blocked seventh and a relegated fourth. Give the natural backrunner the benefit of the doubt, as he could swamp this lot if the pace is average or better. SOUND OF NATURE has a soft draw here and drops in weight, so you cannot leave him out of your multiples.

Race Five

VIKING LEGEND could be part of a good day for visiting trainer Gai Waterhouse, as this three-year-old has the perfect gate in two for this, as rider Blake Shinn can then track the logical leader CARRARA, which is drawn the ace. Interestingly we find Viking Legend and Carrara are by the sire Elvstroem, which himself finished second in the Vase then won the VRC Derby (2500m) one week later in 2003. Viking Legend has the right formlines to be the one to beat in this. Last start he never handled the bog track at Randwick in the G1 Spring Champion Stakes (2000m) but still ran a game third to Monaco Consul (second elect at the moment for the Derby next Saturday) and Gathering (good sort and form threads through him keep holding up). Two starts back Viking Legend beat Saint Encosta into second in the Listed Dulcify (1800m) at Randwick, which he gave 4kg too, and that three-year-old has since come to Melbourne and finished a close second to the Derby favourite Shamoline Warrior and then a last start modest fifth to the same horse. EXTRA ZERO is a nice colt and his last start fourth in the G1 Caulfield Guineas was a super effort and to be honest, he should have got third all things being equal. The start before he just missed nailing Carrara right here at Moonee Valley by a nostril hair, after coming out of gate two and fence hugging then getting through and out for one last lunge at the leader. His draw of seven on Saturday at least means he will not strike traffic on the inner but it does make the job of rider Brad Rawiller trickier. He rode it two starts ago and just missed on the track but to be fair to Carrara it has at equal weights beaten Extra Zero home both times (he finished second in the G1 Caulfield Guineas) at their last two meetings.

Race Six

Super sprint field and powerhouse types wherever you look, but once again we have the leader or at worst a chaser then angled one-off immediately, drawn the ace in LUCKY SECRET, so the speed mapping becomes dare I say predictable for certain runners. ORTENSIA should pick up a big race in the next fortnight, whether that be here or roomy Flemington or both, and from gate two on Saturday she will have all favours. The mare was heavily backed fresh up in the G2 Gilgai (1200m) and ran a good sixth beaten two lengths and second up is three runs for two wins and a second beaten a lip. She has encountered Moonee Valley before, with two runs last season as a three-year-old seeing the filly sit out the back and power home for a placing each time. I thought both runs were top class considering the draw each time never helped and the weight fresh up was prohibitive. Ortensia can be ridden close and in fact has led to win before, which she will not do here, but she can sit in behind and then unleash or in the case of Saturday, hopefully draft in behind then slingshot the leader late. Lucky Secret at Moonee Valley is seven wins and a placing from nine outings, with the miss two starts back when a not far away ninth considering he drew badly and it was a throttle-fest to the turn. He won last start in track record time and it is hard to see anything bullying this big six-year-old gelding out of the lead or sitting in the open, so he looks a strong quinella with the mare. I did think BANK ROBBER looked very ready to resume on a winning note and his trial form and work has been outstanding plus he is a natural leader/on pacer, so should work up to be in front or outside the pace here. Please note last campaign fresh up he led and finished second beaten a lip at G1 under WFA in the BTC Cup (1200m) at Doomben. The reason this race is relevant is that a nose ahead of him getting up on the line was Duporth, a rival again here, and third two lips away was Apache Cat, also a rival again.

Race Seven

HISSING SID should win this if the recent staying formlines of fields he has competed admirably in continue to hold up. He most certainly should have finished second last start to a major Melbourne Cup fancy in Alcopop and who knows what would have happened, if he had not been held up badly around the home turn and lost momentum before having to re-accelerate once through. The clear cut margins disguise the fact he was the one that had his progress impeded at a crucial time, where as Alcopop and Shocking let loose down the outer unhindered. Bettors that see Hissing Sid has run twice at Moonee Valley for a single placing need not be concerned, as each outing came at a mile or less and this is a stayer. He ran a useful eighth here four starts back over 1519m under 58.5kg, when fresh up this campaign, so was not fully cranked up by any means. His other course outing returned a distant third over 1600m in the winter of 2008, when game but clearly not anywhere near maturity as a racehorse. His six starts at 2000m or further to date have yielded three wins, the luckless third last start in the G2 Herbert Power (2400m), a ripper sixth the start before in the G3 Naturalism Stakes (2000m) and a fifth beaten three and a half lengths in the Listed Ramsden Stakes (3200m) at Flemington last autumn under 58kg. The father and son Wilde training team from 'the Bool' are doing great things with the evergreen Baughurst this spring and in Hissing Sid they have another headline maker. Bettors looking for something else to consider in this race need to realize the topweight ISTA KAREEM is unbeaten at Moonee Valley (three for three) and will be fit enough now to protect his record. Ista Kareem is fifth up on Saturday and his record in this state is superb, with a couple of wins right here at Moonee Valley and placings at G1 and G3 that catch the eye. He is part of a good book of rides for Craig Williams (who looks good for two wins and a couple of placings at least) for those that play the jockey market or index (there is all sorts of names you can associate internationally with this type of jock-stock wager such as the undie All Ords or the dacks Dax or the more proper horseman Hang Seng but do not think the Cac please!). The second horse in the book KIBBUTZ is a big stayer and should be ready to show something here. He has had four runs back from a spell this time in and at his first two outings, the gelding ran at WFA and ran into Vigor (third in G1 Caulfield Cup last weekend) and then next time out Heart of Dreams and Whobegotyou at WFA (they are the two clear favourites now in the Cox Plate today). The last two starts for Kibbutz saw him strike Alcopop each time and this is a big drop in quality here. Bettors might like to know Kibbutz won the G1 VRC Derby (2500m) fifth up in 2007 and his prior outing saw him place second, right here on this day at Moonee Valley, in the AAMI Vase (2040m) but obviously for a different stable then. Also we see a Bart and Anthony Cummings runner near the bottom of the field that warrant consideration in THINK MONEY and MISS DARCEY, due to both finishing second and third respectively in the G1 AJC Oaks (2400m) last year behind Daffodil (game fourth in the G1 Caulfield Cup last weekend). Think Money is somehow still a maiden for Bart but she can stay and last start right here at Moonee Valley saw her place third over 2040m, which looks better now since the runner up was Leica Ding (won the G3 Geelong Cup 2406m midweek). She is drawn nicely here unlike Miss Darcey, which is really suited at the weights and by the trip. Remember she was the fourth ballot for the G1 Caulfield Cup and Glen Boss stays aboard. He rode her last start to just miss winning the race named after the father of the trainer, the Listed Bart Cummings (2500m), and with a 6kg pull in the weight beat home for example Ista Kareem (fourth). He loves Moonee Valley, so the gap being the same on Saturday is much more in his favour this time hence why he is the second pick. Nevertheless apart from last start we find Boss has ridden Miss Darcey two other times, with the results a second at Caulfield (when fourth up like she is on Saturday) and a fifth (at G1 under WFA) at Doomben.

Race Nine

If your heart is still thumping after the previous race, the Cox Plate, then you can fill up again in the last event or try to get out with some fiscal credibility in the knowledge that there is just seven sleeps to Derby Day at Flemington. I really like one in the last and finally she has got a draw (the ace) but needs one scratching to get a run. BELLEZA VELOZ is a classic case of a video tip more than once this season and just pray she gets a run in the last. The mare loves Moonee Valley, with two wins and a second in three outings here, plus when she gets a draw she is a must include. Her four runs this campaign, since she had just over a six-week break, has returned a win and a second (both at Moonee Valley) and a pair of tenths (she drew thirteen and fifteen). I noted her down three runs back, as in that trio over the line of ninth, tenth and eleventh was none other than Allez Wonder (a G1 winner of the Toorak since) and a name to look out for when drawn and weighted to suit called With Apologies). They all had degrees of bad luck and being blocked or late clear. Belleza Veloz was slow out last start, so forget she went around and I do not mind Luke Nolen down to ride, as he has won and placed on her before. The mile record of the mare shows one placing from three attempts but she is stronger now and her three draws at that trip are gates eight, nine and fifteen, so the ace here will seem like heaven. A few others in the last event to consider are as follows. PRAVANA has a bad draw but went a top race fresh up and has won second up and at the mile, so she must be a chance since rider Damien Oliver is staying atop. ESTEE has had barrier incidents and no luck since resuming and after three runs in it is hard to accept she has recorded just one placing (second behind Belleza Veloz with 1.5kg more and on Saturday they have the same weight). She can win with any luck and fourth up at her only other two campaigns, there is a Listed win at the mile and a second beaten a lip at the mile. Kerrin McEvoy rides and he knows Estee well having been aboard three times before for a win and a placing. The win was that fourth up Listed mile win last campaign in the autumn and the placing in the G2 Wakeful Stakes (2000m) and the miss in the G1 VRC Oaks (2500m) three days later, came at this very time of the year. I have not dropped PRIMA NOVA yet either, after being strong on her last start, and the fourth placing was sound plus she did place at her only run on this track early last spring and strathayr experience is gold.