Cox Plate / Steve Mcghee / 23 October 2009 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

Reputations are made in the Cox Plate but they can also end up in tatters and the great race never seems to quite go to any plan or speed map ever put forward.

So can the hotpot Whobegotyou maintain his unbeaten record at Moonee Valley and make it five-from-five on the strathayr track by capturing the race trainer Mark Kavanagh, who won it twelve months ago with the now retired Maldivian, had clearly eyed up with this horse one year ago?

Winston Churchill was speaking about the threat of Russia, when he uttered the above words in 1939, the same year the Darby Munro ridden Mosaic (yet another puzzle) won the Cox Plate.

He also in that quote says perhaps there was a key and in regards the Cox Plate it will be tempo and pressure, as that is often all that really matters at the Valley.

The field and barrier are out for the 2009 Cox Plate and we have a hotpot called Whobegotyou from gate ten, so his price is way unders if they dawdle then sprint home.

Whobegotyou may have to make an earlier run around them than usual, to counter any funny business up front in terms of a stop-start pace, but he can do it as he is unbeaten in four runs to date at Moonee Valley and just revels in the strathayr surface.

His wide gate will ensure he keeps out of trouble early and does not get snookered on the inner, the scourge of most Cox Plates, but it could also mean he is trapped out for periods if the pace is not solid throughout.

Damien Oliver rides and he is the only rider to win on him this campaign, with the gelding having lined up five times for two wins and three seconds.

The two victories and one miniscule defeat came for Oliver, while the two other seconds came for rider Michael Rodd.

The male four-year-olds get 1.5kg relief under the WFA scale at this time of the year and at this distance, and it all matters every half-kilo of extra help.

There does look to be at least early pace drawn in gates eleven and fourteen plus even gate nine may come across early, so at least they should rock and roll into the first of many turns at Moonee Valley.

The price on Whobegotyou has always looked skinny because he has to run 2000m plus 40m in the Cox Plate and I do reckon the retirement of his stablemate and the winner last year in Maldivian hurt his chances.

Maldivian would have ensured the pace was maintained throughout and also would have dropped it on the leaders across the top if they were trying for a cheap sectional and all that effect on the tempo and creating pressure would have helped Whobegotyou untold.

It is strange that how the others run their race and how much pressure is applied will determine whether Whobegotyou can remain unbeaten at Moonee Valley and capture the 2009 Cox Plate.

There are a lot of variables and unknowns for an already clear-cut favourite Whobegotyou, so in that sense he is clearly unders, but on ability and love for course and with such an experienced rider aboard many will climb in hoping to take it out in a tick over two minutes.

Three-year-olds have won seventeen of the eighty-seven Cox Plates held and while that is not a great strike rate, it is much better than you are ever led to believe and will read this century about the WFA race.

The right type of three-year-old, and that means a Derby type a week later or one that can sustain a long run rather than just sprint a short one hard, is imperative.

There seems to be a plethora of three-year-olds this year that really find the line and make a long searching run to do so, however just one stands out and that is So You Think.

Bart Cummings is the only trainer that will have a starter this year that has won the Cox Plate with a three-year-old before, namely Taj Rossi in 1973.

Taj Rossi was ridden at 49.5kg by Stan Aitken and beat the Mellay mare from New Zealand in Swell Time that was trained by Bill Winder and ridden by David Peake.

Third home that year was a durable sprinter called Zambari, ridden by Harry White for trainer the late great Tommy Smith.

So You Think was superb last start in the G1 Caulfield Guineas for fifth, as he came from a hopeless position out the back down the outer and although beaten five lengths, he actually was the only one to defy the blatant track bias.

The colt was just warming up, when the others were full throttle over the line, and if they go hard up front in 2009 then you will not just see Whobegotyou swoop around but it might just tow into the race So You Think with 8kg less on his back.

Glen Boss will ride So You Think and he has a Cox Plate too his name, when he rode the great mare Makybe Diva to win comfortably in 2005.

He sent the mare forward, when a large wall of runners all decided to go at the same time and the sight of him having a hold on his mount and the rest urging and pulling the persuader out in panic, will long be an image seared in the mind of what class versus the rest really does look like.

I can see Boss stalking the right horse at the right time from the back then making sure the massive pull in the weights his three-year-old mount has is used to proper effect near the home turn and to the finish.

Maybe we will see Boss push them wider when they come, and they will come from the back there can be nothing surer across the top, to once again show he is on the best horse in the field?

If we see the three-year-old So You Think win the 2009 Cox Plate it will come at just his fifth raceday start and it takes a champion in waiting to do that and a champion trainer (Bart already is) to even contemplate it let alone pull it off.

Only six three-year-olds have won the Cox Plate then taken out the G1 Victoria Derby (2500m) a week later, and one of those was Taj Rossi for Cummings, while another was Red Anchor (1984) for the late great trainer Tommy Smith.

His daughter Gai Waterhouse will line up the other three-year-old in the Cox Plate, the long strider Manhattan Rain and he is nominated still for the Derby.

The best Waterhouse has achieved to date in the Cox Plate is a second with Lotteria in 2005 and she ran into a certain Makybe Diva ridden by Glen Boss that year.

It is funny how the same names keep cropping up to repeat in great races.

Craig Williams will ride Manhattan Rain, a last start game third in the G1 Caulfield Guineas after sitting handy throughout, and he won the 2006 Cox Plate aboard the durable Fields Of Omagh that is an ornament to the race.

Fields Of Omagh ran in five straight Cox Plates for two wins (2003 and 2006), two placings (second in 2004 and third in 2005) and a fifth in 2002 behind the colossus Northerly.

Rock Kingdom is the other Waterhouse trained runner in the 2009 Cox Plate and the late payment of 130K to get in tells you they are serious plus this tough four-year-old gelding has two racing patterns, so Plan A and Plan B is available to rider Nash Rawiller.

He can go forward early to slot in or race in the midfield but it is the former I suspect will be adopted, as over the 2040m the gelding can settle down handy then flush out any challengers down the dummy straight.

Rawiller knows Rock Kingdom well too having been aboard four times on raceday for a win and two placings (both at G1) and the two Waterhouse runners can actually help each other this year.

The rest of the field in order is as follows.

El Segundo won the Cox Plate in 2006, after having been beaten a lip by Fields Of Omagh the year before, and this war-horse loves Moonee Valley and the big occasion.

Recent history of the Cox Plate sees it as being a WFA classic for redemption and the older horses or the "returner to right a wrong', so age is irrelevant this century it does seem.

Tough sorts that have been in a war or two and are still standing keep returning to the Valley to fight on once more knowing that recognition, redemption and reward is but just a couple of minutes away.

To show you that superstition is rampant in thoroughbred racing please consider that El Segundo, when winning the 2006 Cox Plate was fifth up from a spell and his lead up races in order were the Listed Auries Star (1200m), the G2 Memsie (1400m), the G2 Dato Tan Chin Nam (1600m) and the G1 Turnbull (2000m).

He has followed precisely the same path two years later and will be fifth up on Saturday.

Zipping is an eight-year-old now and very honest but durable, so he is the right sort of horse for the Cox Plate whose time may have come to win.

He will be third up from a spell on Saturday but his last start eighth in the G1 Turnbull (2000m) was a ripper and except for Scenic Shot and Viewed, this was the next best run.

Already out of this race we have seen the Caulfield Cup trifecta and Baughurst winning the G3 Coongy (2000m), which was one race prior, so it is a super form thread.

Last year Zipping third up from a spell, finished a good second to Maldivian in the Cox Plate from a nice draw, after having run in the Dato Tan Chin Nam and the Turnbull Stakes.

He has done precisely the same thing this year in preparation and has a nice soft draw too.

Zipping also ran a luckless eighth in the 2007 Cox Plate, when third up from a spell from a bad draw, so the owners/trainers know him inside out and how he runs best kept relatively fresh.

Vision And Power is old enough and experienced enough to be a Cox Plate contender plus he did only come into his own at G1 level last autumn and this race loves late bloomers.

He has in his five runs since resuming got fitter each time and showed last start, his first run in Melbourne this campaign, that he is ready now.

The gelding was close up behind Cox Plate favourite Whobegotyou in the G1 Yalumba (2000m) and it is worth noting that sixth up from a spell last campaign he finished a close second under WFA at G1 behind Tuesday Joy in the Chipping Norton.

Vision And Power used to be trained in Victoria by Robert Smerdon and has raced at Moonee Valley three times for a win, a fourth and a tenth, so he cops the strathayr.

The horse contested a single G1 as a three-year-old, the Queensland Derby (2400m) and finished a fair twelfth beaten six and a half lengths.

Several years later and for now Randwick trainer Joseph Pride the gelding is a rejuvenated galloper and to prove it his last seven runs at G1 level have yielded two wins, two placings, two fourths and a fifth.

He has a soft draw and a form rider in Hugh Bowman up on Saturday, so once again the Cox Plate field becomes more puzzling and open the further you look into it.

The Cox Plate is a conundrum and when every bettor has as much chance as the next then you have a seriously good turnover race.

Nom Du Jeu is either good or bad, so there is no middle ground with him but he has a soft draw and the Cox Plate winning jockey of last year in Michael Rodd aboard.

The entire was as weak as water last start, when finishing seventh of eighth in the G1 Yalumba, as he poked through on the inner turning for home looking a distinct threat then gave in meekly.

He has never raced on the strathayr of Moonee Valley but with the permanent give such a manufactured surface gives it should suit plus no rival rider will be keeping an eye on him in the running.

Nash Rawiller rode him last start and the time before, when placed at Rosehill, but leapt off and is on Rock Kingdom in the Cox Plate to tell bettors his opinion loud and clear.

Could he be totally wrong?

Scenic Shot is another one of these tough Western Australian gallopers that never lays down on the canvass for very long.

His last start third was by far the best effort in the G1 Turnbull (Viewed was the next best eyecatcher and Zipping the third best), as he was sent forward very wide 800m out and raced deep close but just kept kicking.

I am amazed for such a tough WFA horse such as Scenic Shot that this will be his first run at Moonee Valley and obviously the Cox Plate, as he seems made for the pressure contest.

Nice draw and experienced rider but will be paying plenty and yet another older war-horse in the field.

Black Piranha will have to win the 2009 Cox Plate having never raced at Moonee Valley and with just one left-handed run too his name, which was the last start close up and luckless sixth in the G1 Toorak (1600m) at Caulfield.

He has only ever raced at 2000m once for a close second but has to handle an extra 40m on Saturday and unbearable pressure throughout.

The six-year-old only came good or solid this year and does like rain-affected footing or some sort of give in the ground.

His five starts right-handed in Sydney or Queensland at G1 have yielded four seconds and a first, with Vision And Power seeming to have his number.

One of the seconds by Black Piranha came behind Apache Cat and his win came over Danleigh, which reads well since that horse won at G1 fresh up at Moonee Valley in Manikato Stakes (1200m) late September.

The formlines in and around Black Piranha are strong and what a day it could be for trainer Con Karakatsanis and rider Tye Angland?

Con the Cox Plater sounds like no Comedy Company character too me.

Sir Slick the New Zealand trained eight-year-old has had over one hundred starts and has more stamps on his passport than most humans plus he goes through the express check counter at the airport they know him that well.

They finally give him a start in the Cox Plate this year, after fearing he would get in the way in previous years or his form at the time did not warrant a run.

He is a natural on pacer or leader in the race but will be paying a mammoth price even though he can be a tough bugger on his best day.

His international record on strathayr surfaces does make you think he is making up the numbers and is wanted to put pace in the race but the Cox Plate is the stuff of dreams.

His four starts at Sha Tin, Singapore and twice at Moonee Valley on strathayr have returned a fifth, tenth, eleventh and twelfth for a combined margin of defeat of thirty-eight lengths (an average defeat of nine and a half lengths).

Michelle Payne rides him and she rode him in Melbourne five times in a row last spring, with the outcome a fourth, a fifth, a sixth, a tenth and a twelfth.

Sir Slick was beaten just under twenty-five lengths in total over those five runs that were a G2, a Listed and three open handicaps for an average defeat of almost five lengths per race.

Road To Rock is interesting because he ticks boxes that many others do not, such as having raced at Moonee Valley three times before for a win, a placing and a close up seventh at G2.

He has won over 2000m before and has not sought out soft kills this year, with his last eight starts coming against G1 six times and G3 and Listed level once.

In that period he has won twice and placed once but also finished fifth once, sixth three times and seventh once (the most he has been beaten in this time is five lengths).

Road To Rock is very fit and well but last start was third at equal weights behind a rival again in Rock Kingdom and on Saturday has to give away 1.5kg to that runner.

Then again the wet track last start was not in his favour and he was super impressive the time before winning the G1 George Main (1600m) at WFA over a rival again in Black Piranha.

Could the son Anthony finally wrestle some limelight away from his dad Bart Cummings (three Cox Plates to date in Taj Rossi (1973), Saintly (1996) and Dane Ripper (1997) or is the legend just too good?

Speed Gifted is the horse that saw thousands throw up their Caulfield Cup tickets and doubles into Melbourne Cup runners in the air like worthless confetti, after trainer Lee Freedman decided he would not tackle that track again or race before his main spring aim.

They bought the horse specifically to win the rich Melbourne Cup and the Cox Plate on Saturday is the most suitable race along the way but heaven help them at Flemington if he performs at WFA at Moonee Valley.

Freedman won the third Melbourne Cup in a row with the mighty Makybe Diva in 2005, by capturing the Cox Plate at her run prior, so he knows special horses can do it.

Just ask Bart about Saintly in 1996?

Speed Gifted was awesome last start in shellacking the stayers at Randwick on wet ground in the G1 Metropolitan (2400m) and could have won by double his margin at the post if driven right out.

His draw on Saturday ensures he will be ridden cold and just remember that he is unbeaten at Flemington, which is ten days after this on a certain Tuesday.

Heart Of Dreams has a great draw on Saturday and will not settle behind archrival Whobegotyou this time, after that mistake was made last start in the G1 Yalumba (2000m).

This four-year-old has to run out the 2040m under pressure but he has beaten Whobegotyou twice in five meetings, so is his nemesis in many respects.

He has placed at Moonee Valley at his only start, as a juvenile behind Whobegotyou, and is such an honest horse that it is hard not to have him back to a clear second pick.

The rails trifecta in an unusual run Cox Plate could be tasty, as there are all sorts of big and then simply enormous prices on offer.

So You Think is a win or nowhere type, while Zipping from the draw looks value and Heart Of Dreams has too good a record over Whobegotyou to ignore.