Caulfield Guineas / Steve Mcghee / 06 October 2009 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

The stayer Precedence has always had some speculative money on him for the major staying races over the Melbourne spring carnival and not just because he is trained by the 'Cups king' himself Bart Cummings and is sired by Zabeel.

By Steve McGhee

It is because he is an out and out stayer and importantly a lightly tried and untapped one, so the scope for improvement this season is immense for the entire.

He has at last drifted to backable Cups odds, after his two runs since resuming from a spell have returned double-zero in the form column, but now is the time the four-year-old should be just about ready to show some form again and the last race at Caulfield over 1800m on Sunday looks an easy kill.

A win in the final event will also help his queue-jumping prospects towards getting a start in either the Caulfield or Melbourne Cups or both.

If it were 2000m or further on Sunday then Precedence would be a moral, as he comes into his own once in the stamina arena, but 1800m against some far from 'frightening' (excuse the Bart Cummings pun but he trained a horse of the same name that scored three of his four career wins over the Melbourne spring carnival of 2003) opposition on Sunday will suffice.

Precedence has to date recorded just one win and one placing from his ten starts and to show he is a deadset stayer, the victory came over 2380m at Caulfield and the close second placing over 2800m in the G3 St Leger at Flemington.

He is a far stronger horse this time in and it is worth noting the entire will keep improving as the distances rise this spring, so just keep keeping to put it on.

The natural off pacer is a typical son of Zabeel in that he handles rain-affected ground and will improve tenfold with the blinkers applied again, which is a yes in both instances this Sunday.

His only win to date came on dead ground but it is his lone start on heavy ground that tells you all and more about his wet weather ability and potential, when finishing seventh and beaten three and a half lengths.

Last season the colt finished seventh of eight in a three-year-old over 1500m at Rosehill in February on heavy ground and the effort was a beauty considering he was tardy at the start but more so because of what he ran into that day and what was not far from ahead of him at the post.

Precedence that day finished just one spot behind an unlucky Metal Bender, which has since been a dual G1 winner of the Randwick Guineas (1600m) and Rosehill Guineas (2000m) but also finished second at G1 at WFA versus the older horses in the Queen Elizabeth (2000m), with notably Whobegotyou and Predatory Pricer behind him in fourth and ninth respectively.

Second in that heavy track Rosehill 1500m race, where Precedence finished seventh, was his stablemate Roman Emperor and it would win the G1 AJC Derby (2400m) later in the autumn plus this season is himself a very serious Cups contender in Melbourne.

O'Lonhro won that heavy track 1500m Rosehill race and in four starts since has been a G2 winner and placed twice, with one of those coming at G2 as well.

The other three names that finished ahead of Precedence in that 1500m at Rosehill for three-year-olds on heavy ground that has turned out to be a superb form source since are Hashasan (3 runs since for two placings), Orca (6 runs since for a Listed win and four placings, with two of those coming at G3) and Centennial Park (5 starts since for two wins and one of those came at Listed level).

Precedence was not that bad at all fresh up this campaign, when twelfth beaten seven lengths over 1400m at Caulfield in a leader won race, though good stayers do always perform well resuming at this trip.

His last start eighth of ten beaten nine lengths saw him not unexpectedly a disinterested runner second up that simply found G2 at WFA over 1600m and the strathayr of Moonee Valley not suitable at all.

When fully fit Precedence can race every two weeks at least and probably back up a week or ten days later further into the spring, as his stamina comes more into the reckoning.

He can win the last race at Caulfield on Sunday under 58.5kg from the outside gate, as it does not hamper a natural off pacer that will be going back at the start anyway, and be yet another name that comes into the Cups mix plus the 'Bart factor' is always palpable at this time of the year.

Luke Nolen rides him and he at least has had a feel of the entire before, after riding it fresh up this campaign at Caulfield, so both the horse and rider would have gained plenty of 'intel' from that outing and hopefully he does not become a tepid tempo victim.

Zabeel has sired three Caulfield Cup winners so far, with the awesome Might And Power (1997) almost passing the camera van at times and winning by daylight being his first but most memorable victor.

Two years later Zabeel would amazingly sire the trifecta in the Caulfield Cup, with Sky Heights beating Laebeel and Inaflury in 1999.

Railings won it in 2005 for Zabeel to give the super sire his third Caulfield Cup.

It should also be noted here that it could well have been four for Zabeel because in 2001 we saw Sky Heights finish second beaten a nostril by the New Zealand trained mare Ethereal, which incidentally went on to complete the Cups double at Flemington that spring.

Zabeel in the Melbourne Cup also has three wins in the resume at the moment, with obviously Might And Power doing the double in 1997 and the next year forming the Kiwi 'chick flick' quinella with Jezabeel and Champagne.

His third Melbourne Cup siring success was of course Efficient in 2007.

Bart Cummings apart from preparing the winner Rogan Josh in 1999 also produced the third placegetter that year and it was a daughter of Zabeel called Zazabelle.

Precedence is something that Cummings and Cups over the Melbourne Spring Carnival goes hand and hand with, so beware this runner with the very apt name on Sunday and for the rest of the spring.

Also rather fittingly the name of the last race on the Caulfield card on Sunday is that of another Australian champion and legend ala Cummings, namely the amazingly versatile galloper Malua, which in 1884 won feature sprints such as the Newmarket Handicap and the Oakleigh Plate but also that same year captured the Melbourne Cup.

Now that cannot be coincidence for Precedence and Bart can it?