Caulfield Guineas / Steve Mcghee / 18 September 2009 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

By Stephen McGhee

The G1 Caulfield Guineas (1600m) to be raced on October 10 is one of the true 'stallion-maker' races over spring in Australia and the entire season for that matter.

Tickets is a colt that has size, presence and an extravagant action that demands full stretch without any hindrance in the running to get its maximum extension benefit over the closing stages.

His fresh up run at Caulfield in the G3 H.D.F. McNeil Stakes (1200m) saw him finish a late warming up and not totally stretching out properly fifth, which disappointed many but not me.

He was beaten three lengths in a race he found trouble and tight quarters early plus he never truly let go for the rider from the midfield until too late in a race won by the leader.

The run screamed the colt needs a furlong or two more to show his true power and besides this was not the race or blacktype level that his new trainer Peter Moody is aiming to make it a day of celebration with all around.

Tickets went some monster races as a juvenile in Sydney, when trained at Randwick by John O'Shea, where he often over-raced or was having too much colt-like fun on raceday against both the rider and gawking at surroundings.

However he still returned clockwise in his five juvenile starts a super two wins (at G2 and Listed level) and two second placings (both at G1 over 1400m and 1600m) and a G3 fourth beaten four lengths, when a victim of interference.

The colt coped on dry and even wet tracks despite pulling hard at times and did it on sheer juvenile ability, so watch out when he really learns to be a brutish racehorse and I see it happening at juicy odds now for the Caulfield Guineas on October 10.

He may shorten too much after this weekends racing, so the key is to take the 25-1 or better right now with the scenario that he can do something super or solid at least on Saturday.

If he wins or goes super in the Caulfield Guineas Prelude (1400m) on Saturday then his odds will be slashed as if Freddy Krueger had lay a hand on him.

The best thing about finding value now and having an ante-post scenario in mind is that you can go again after this weekend, if the colt does not quite have things go his way on Saturday, and get a far greater price still knowing the Caulfield Guineas is his main aim at G1 glory.

His new trainer is aiming him squarely for the G1 Caulfield Guineas to make that particular raceday another great one for his stud owners and breeders and their green and white silks.

A decent barrier can be the difference in price to back or lay Tickets for some but remember he needs room to let go, so it may well not be the key factor come his Grand Final day in the Caulfield Guineas field despite the data heavily favouring small single digit draws.

Tickets does not like the opposition to 'cramp his style' during a race and first choice rider for the Moody stable, Luke Nolen, will have learnt this in spades after the first up fifth anti-clockwise over too short a trip for him.

The colt looked and raced like a miler not a sprinter fresh up and at this stage it is all aboard to Caulfield on October 10 and 'Tickets please' the call from the conductor Moody and his driver Nolen.

There is no need for a Plan B regarding his stallion career at this stage either, with plenty of options at Flemington later this spring or next autumn if Caulfield proves unhelpful for the big bull with a lucky seven-letter name.

The family of Tickets is amazingly linked to the Caulfield Guineas in both the raceday performance and stallion-making departments plus there are some nice odds and ends that tie up nicely together now in terms of riders, race history and current events.

Tickets may well be far better suited to the roomy Flemington expanse this spring than the at times awkward home turn and far tighter at times Caulfield track but the colt is after G1 recognition and glory for his future job resume.

His dam is Staging, a million-dollar plus earning filly by Success Express, which won at G2 four times and G3 twice but she also placed at G1 four times behind the likes of big winners that were absolute bettor and crowd favourites such as Tie The Knot and Chief De Beers to name a couple.

Staging has left so far to race in the intact male ranks apart from Tickets, the already proven pair of Duporth and Excites and interestingly each of them contested the Caulfield Guineas.

Duporth (by Red Ransom) finished fourth in the Caulfield Guineas last year, when beaten seven lengths and was the victim of a rocky run early.

The easy winner of the race last year was Whobegotyou, the current deserved warm favourite to win the G1 Cox Plate this season at Moonee Valley, a track he is unbeaten at in four outings.

Time Thief was runner up to Whobegotyou to show field strength, apart from the clear cut margins, while even the fifteenth runner home in the Caulfield Guineas was Tavistock (prefix of Lord in Australia) and it won a G1 at WFA in New Zealand second up this campaign that was the first leg of a Triple Crown.

The G1 win for Duporth to seal his stud career came this May, when he won the BTC Cup (1200m) at Doomben carrying 57kg and getting up on the line.

The third placed finisher in the race nostrils away was none other than multiple G1 winner Apache Cat, which carried 58.5kg, so the Duporth victory was more than meaningful.

Excites (by Danewin) won as a juvenile at G1 in the AJC Sires Produce (1400m) at Randwick, so his stud career was already partially guaranteed but a second placing in the 2006 G1 Caulfield Guineas to Wonderful World sealed the deal.

The colt was ridden from barrier eleven by Noel Callow and his conqueror by almost two lengths was Wonderful World (out of a Success Express dam too), which was piloted for trainer Bart Cummings by none other than Luke Nolen (the likely rider of Tickets) on October 10.

Wonderful World at 40-1 finished second to the evergreen El Segundo in the G1 Cox Plate last year, to show you that the glamour WFA feature of spring is linked to the Caulfield Guineas quite consistently the following year, if not sometimes two weeks later.

Cummings had won the Caulfield Guineas the year before too, with God's Own producing an amazing effort to win despite countless trouble and setbacks in the running.

God's Own was by the super sire and racehorse Redoute's Choice, which is poignant for so many reasons it is not funny and links with that horse abound throughout this article.

Redoute's Choice won the 1999 Caulfield Guineas in perhaps one of the greatest 'stallion-making' runnings of the race ever, with the second placed finisher Testa Rossa and third home Commands.

Testa Rossa finished fourth in the 1999 Cox Plate to runaway winner Sunline, with Redoute's Choice fifth at the post.

Redoute's Choice had finished third to Testa Rossa in the G1 Vic Health (1400m) against the older horses, as a lead up to the Caulfield Guineas three weeks later, where he out-duelled that main rival in the sire-making age group feature.

Rick Hore-Lacy trained Redoute's Choice and with the 'whip-gate' controversy of late raging in Australia, it was a case of Caulfield Guineas links and connections galore recently happening on live television.

Hore-Lacy joined in a live interview with two riders and commented on what he thought about jockeys that strike halfway through a racemeeting and cost many facets of the industry money and test the patience of the public too.

The two riders, who were being interviewed on behalf of the Victorian jockeys at the Ballarat meeting that was called off halfway through, were none other than Glen Boss and Brad Rawiller.

Glen Boss of course rode God's Own to somehow get up and win the 2005 Caulfield Guineas and Brad Rawiller rode a proactive race on Weekend Hussler to win the Caulfield Guineas in 2007.

The sire of God's Own was of course Redoute's Choice, so one does not happen without the other to make a tense situation even messier and so a clear points decision to Hore-Lacy.

Manhattan Rain will come down for the Caulfield Guineas to seal his stallion career and this colt has met Tickets four times to date and the score of beating the other home is two apiece.

Ironically we see Manhattan Rain is already very valuable but can improve his worth tenfold, as he is a half brother to none other than Redoute's Choice, which is a nice way to complete the connection of some threads and links mentioned above.

The lead up race of the Caulfield Guineas Prelude (held this Saturday) has had a major influence on the outcome of the G1 Caulfield Guineas recently but interestingly more often from placegetters, so keep that in mind too.

The last ten Caulfield Guineas winners below and the lead up race they ran in.

1999-Redoute's Choice (Third in G1 Vic Health Cup over 1400m)

2000-Show A Heart (actually finished second in the G1 Caulfield Guineas but promoted after the winner Skalato returned a positive swab)-Second in Listed Caulfield Guineas Prelude over 1400m)

2001-Lonhro (Won G2 AJC Stan Fox Stakes over 1400m)

2002-Helenus (Won G2 Stutt Stakes over 1600m but had finished third prior in Listed Caulfield Guineas Prelude over 1400m)

2003-In Top Swing (Second in G3 Caulfield Guineas Prelude over 1400m)

2004-Econsul (Sixth in G2 AJC Stan Fox Stakes over 1400m)

2005-God's Own (Second in G3 Caulfield Guineas Prelude over 1400m)

2006-Wonderful World (Won G3 Caulfield Guineas Prelude over 1400m)

2007-Weekend Hussler (Won 3yo Open at Sandown Hillside over 1400m)

2008-Whobegotyou (Won G2 Stutt Stakes over 1600m but had finished a luckless seventh prior in the G3 Caulfield Guineas Prelude over 1400m)

Five of the Caulfield Guineas winners from the last ten runnings took in last start win form and four of them had been placed second or third, so that is a very distinct pattern to consider towards Oct 10 once all the possible lead up races have been contested.

The last three winners of the Caulfield Guineas have started with the letter 'W' and amazingly the best prospect in the race this year still nominated is the natural off pacer Wanted, which is of course trained by Peter Moody.

Wanted this weekend could bolster his credentials and is a colt, so once again sire aims are paramount plus he has shown enough on raceday but whether he is a miler or just a sprinter is another matter.

The colt last season finished third to Tickets and Manhattan Rain at Listed level and was sent down to the Moody stable for his three-year-old racing, with a fresh up G2 second behind the stable star filly Black Caviar at Flemington rather eyecatching.

No filly has won the Caulfield Guineas since Surround in 1976 and she was so good she won the G1 Cox Plate that same spring too, so that tells you that a filly is the first one the line goes through unless it is an absolute freak.

To this day Surround is still the only ever three-year-old filly to win the Cox Plate and the day she become unrivalled saw her carry 47kg and score easily in then race record time for rider Peter Cook.

It is worth noting that trainer Peter Moody had the unbeaten super looking and striding filly Black Caviar set to take all before her early spring but she hurt herself at the jump when winning last start.

Moody would have fancied winning the G1 double of the Caulfield Guineas and 1000 Guineas (fillies only) on October 10 and October 14 respectively before the Black Caviar setback but don't entirely dismiss his prospects yet in one or both age group features.

He has an admirable male replacement in Tickets and plenty of other male and female three-year-old ammunition to fire that week at Caulfield.

Good suitable price finding or price offering towards the Caulfield Guineas over the next three weeks.