US Open Golf / Paul Krishnamurty / 18 June 2010 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

Betting on the US Open is not just about the various winner markets, Betfair also allows punters to gamble on each day's three-balls - here are Paul Krishnamurty's opening day tips.

Starting Time 15.22: Bo Van Pelt @ [2.3] (vs Gay, Khan)

As always in majors, the ideal early three-ball strategy is to seek out players who are strongly fancied to struggle, and who therefore set an easily beatable target. I doubt this early three-ball will take much winning, for which in-form Bo Van Pelt must rate a very strong favourite. Bo looks a plausible outsider for the tournament, after top-10 finishes on five of his last six starts, including four top-fives.

Neither opponent looks much of a threat. European Tour also-ran Simon Khan owes his presence to that 500/1 triumph at Wentworth; his only form of any note all season. Khan slipped straight back to anonymity, missing his next cut. Gay has vastly greater PGA Tour pedigree, but not in this event, or on this course. He's missed all six cuts in the US Open, and three out of four in the Pebble Beach Pro-am.


Starting Time 15.55: Stephen Ames @ [2.52] (vs Appleby, Sabbatini)

I've already made a case for Stephen Ames in my Find Me A 100 Winner column, and while that [250.0] bet remains a long-shot, he deserves to be clear favourite to win this group.

Again, neither opponent looks likely to set much of a target. Stuart Appleby has usually been too erratic to thrive in this tough major, registering only one top-20 in over a decade of trying. After missing his last four cuts, I doubt this year will be any exception. Even worse is Sabbatini, who has yet to reach the top-50 in eight US Open attempts. Rory does at least have some form in the pro-am on this course, but these tighter, more demanding conditions are very much against him.


Starting Time 21.03: Seung-Yul Noh @ [2.3] (vs Campbell, Goydos)

Tremendous prospect though he is, nobody is expecting any heroics from teenage star Seung-Yul Noh on his US Open debut. Nevertheless, he must fancied to beat these two terribly out of form opponents. Noh's best efforts this season; winning the Malaysian Open, finishing fourth in the Ballantines and 13th at Wentworth; are in another universe to anything achieved in recent months by Michael Campbell or Paul Goydos.

Former champion Campbell ranks as a huge outsider, having missed every cut this year and failed to better 74 in any competitive round. Goydos is a much shorter price, but is still hard to fancy, given that he's been outside the top-50 on his last twelve starts, and withdrew from last week's event after a poor opening round.


Starting Time 21.03: Tom Lehman @ [3.0] (vs Duval, Curtis)

Lehman is another of those Find Me A 100 Winner selections, and again is a more realistic pick to win this group than the speculative punt advised there at [800.0]. I am very confident he'll make the cut, and see the top-20 as a perfectly realistic target. That is more than I'm expecting of either Duval or Curtis.

Strangely, Duval has produced his only two good performances in recent years in this tournament and on this course. Either side or in between of finishing second at last year's US Open, and reaching the same position in the Pebble Beach Pro-Am, Duval hasn't registered a top-25 in four years. As for Curtis, he hasn't done anything particularly special to date in 2010, and has yet to better 30th in six US Open attempts.


Starting Time 21.36: Lee Westwood @ [2.6] (vs Woods, Els)

Finally, it would be rude not to close the opening day with an interest in this all-star three-ball. Given that I've argued that Lee Westwood is the man to beat over the week, and that Tiger should be opposed, it stands to reason that I would back Worksop's finest in this group.

In fact, 18-hole betting could prove to be the best value method of opposing Woods. I find it hard to justify Tiger's position as favourite, but can fully understand why layers are reluctant to put up double-figures about the great man in the tournament winner market. Whereas, I can't see any justification for backing him as favourite to beat the consistent in-form Westwood, or Fedex Cup leader Ernie Els for that matter. Els could rate the bigger danger.