US Open Golf / Paul Krishnamurty / 26 May 2010 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

There are plenty of reasons for fans of European golf to be cheerful at present and what has been almost unthinkable for some time - a US Open victory - is very much on the cards. Paul Krishnamurty identifies a trio of Europeans who could land the year's second major.

Considering that Europe have more than held their own in Ryder Cups over the last three decades, the failure of anyone from our continent to win the US Open since 1970 seems a strange and disappointing statistic. Hope, however, may be at hand, for next month's major at Pebble Beach represents our best ever opportunity.

Historically, there were valid excuses. Before the sport's globalisation process during the 90s, particularly the creation of World Golf Championships, European golfers only ever gained limited experience of US conditions and courses. Only an elite handful would play PGA Tour events beyond the three US-based majors. They were bound to be at a disadvantage, due to the different greens, rough and climate.

A further legitimate excuse has been the emergence of Tiger Woods, at just about the time when the leading Europeans began to base their seasons around the PGA Tour. It may not be complete coincidence that two of Padraig Harrington's three major wins came in 2008, when Woods was out injured. Pod remains the only European major champion this century.

Neither excuse holds water any more. Seven of the world's leading 14 ranked players are European, as are 18 of the top-50. All of them, and plenty more, are PGA Tour regulars. Moreover, even assuming he plays, nobody is expecting to see Woods in peak form at Pebble Beach. In fact, with confidence about his well-being in ever shorter supply, this may be a good time to be start snapping up some decent prices about our main candidates, before any market moves against Tiger.

Furthermore, Pebble Beach is arguably the most Euro-friendly course on the US Open rota, primarily due to the windy, links-style conditions. When the US Open was last held here ten years ago, Europeans filled four of the top-seven places. Granted, they never had a prayer of getting close to 15-stroke winner Tiger, but Harrington, Miguel-Angel Jimenez and Lee Westwood all spent the entire weekend in the thick of a more interesting battle for second place. Previously, Pebble Beach had been the scene of the first of Colin Montgomerie's agonising near-misses in the 1992 US Open.

Given that Tiger is unlikely to represent the same kind of threat, Harrington and Westwood must fancy their chances this time around. Harrington has improved enormously in the decade since registering what was then a career best. Betfair wasn't invented back then, but I'm pretty sure he would have been a triple-figure priced outsider. This time he's fourth favourite, at a very reasonable [28.0].

In contrast, Westwood was already well established in 2000. However, he had little pedigree of form on tough major layouts, whereas nobody has been more consistent in the biggest recent events. Lee has finished no worse than third in the last three majors, and also ran a close fourth in Sawgrass 'Fifth Major'. I've always held the view that the US Open represented Westwood's best chance of a major title, due to the extra emphasis on tee to green accuracy. Even accounting for ongoing doubts about his bottle, [16.5] still represents a decent trade. Westwood certainly shouldn't be twice the price of Tiger.

For me, the best among numerous other European candidates is Paul Casey, who represents outstanding value at [50.0]. It's important to remember that, while his march to fourth place in the world rankings has been a fine achievement, things could have been even better without an untimely injury last summer. Casey has had few, if any, equals in the long game department for the past 18 months, and has learnt the art of plotting his way around a tough layout. It wouldn't surprise me in the least were Casey to win this week at the Crowne Plaza Invitational, or another title ahead of the US Open, forcing a sharp contraction in price.

Recommended Bets:
Lee Westwood @ [16.5]
Padraig Harrington @ [28.0]
Paul Casey @ [50.0]