Golf / Brad Thompson / 16 June 2011 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

Brad Thompson is all ready for the famed Congressional layout in Maryland, the stage for this year's US Open.

There's no Tiger Woods to contend with on this occasion, but most of the top chances aren't fussed, saying their plight is made no easier in his absence.

Congressional has hosted the US Open twice before - with Ken Venturi taking the 1964 edition, with the sweet-swinging South African winning his second US Open title there in 1997.

Graeme McDowell ($70) is the defending US Open champion after last year's victory at Pebble Beach, but after playing a recent practice round at Congressional, has declared no-one will break par at the 111th US Open.

It's a fearsome course, measuring a brutal 7564 yards for the par 71 layout. The US Open has long been regarded as the toughest major of them all, and this year's will be no exception.

The Aussies

AARON BADDELEY ($110)
In-form after winning at Riviera this year.

Led the US Open in 2007.

A chance, yet not overly keen to back him.

Tiger's omission opens up the 111th US Open, but in all honesty, with or without him, finding the winner was never going to be easy.

The key will be finding the value - and there's plenty of it in the Betfair market.

JASON DAY ($50)
Now the highest ranked Australian.

This is his first US Open but he already has a proven record in the majors. He has contested three, and contended in two.

Has the talent and composure to feature again here. Day is $50 to win, $5.7 for top 10 and $5 to be top Aussie. Can make genuine cases to have some of all three.

ADAM SCOTT ($75)
Has played little since a great showing at Augusta.

And although one would think this tournament would suit him, Scott's best performance is 21st from 9 starts.

But armed with the long putter, and Tiger Woods' caddy Steve Williams on the bag, Scott's chances can't be ignored. He is a staggering $11 for the top ten, $5.40 for top Aussie and $75 for the win.

GEOFF OGILVY ($75)

Past winner of the tournament and despite playing stylishly at Augusta, Day and Scott seem to have the edge on him to make their presence felt at a course like Congressional.

Can't write him off, but unfortunately, can't back them all. Was unconvincing at his last outing in Memphis.

ROBERT ALLENBY ($110)
Can make big claims for Allenby's chances. Experienced US Open campaigner after 14 appearances.

The layout suits his stock shot shape and he finished encouragingly in Memphis with back to back 67s. Amazingly, he is at a lower quote for a top 10 showing than Scott.

But he can't be overlooked. Hard to see him winning, but a good week wouldn't shock. Perhaps gamble on the top 10 at $10.5 and top 20 at $4.70.

NICK O'HERN ($460)
Style suits the US Open. Made three cuts from three tries at the tournament. $23 top 10 is attractive.

The advice patriotic Aussies want to hear - make sure your biggest result is for Jason Day to win. At $50, he is sensational value.

Back both Day ($4.70) and Scott ($6.60) for top Aussie.

I can't see anyone else troubling these two.

The rest of the field

PHIL MICKELSON ($16.50)
The best backed in the final days leading into round one.

He is a five-time runner up and a regular fixture in the top 10 ($2.78).

Tempering that consistency is his form at Congressional, which is nothing to get excited about. He is in good enough form, however, and finding that form at the right time.

So consistent that he can't be dismissed, but his form at the course doesn't get me overly confident.

I would rather not leave him out though on the basis that his main rivals are unproven in majors. Have to have something at the $16.50 but more than likely just a saver.

LUKE DONALD ($14.50)
The new No. 1 man in golf, but yet to add a major to his resume.

The recent British PGA Championship winner, and consistent, yet from seven starts he is still to make the top ten. But he has finished 13th at Congressional.

Current second favourite at $14.50 - can't get overly keen at that quote.

LUKE WESTWOOD ($13)
Probably the deserved favourite.

In top form, he plays well at the US Open.

Hard to fault his form this year, and Congressional should be the type to suit him. He narrowly went down to Donald in the recent BMW.

I don't like backing favourites in majors who are yet to win one, but have something on him - just enough to make a slightly more profitable result than a Mickelson win.

STEVE STRICKER ($23)
Hasn't missed a cut in 21 months, so one can't fault the way he is playing.

He has been runner-up at Congressional before.

I'm willing to take him on though. You can leave him out but a top-20 finish ($1.95) wouldn't shock.

OTHER CHANCES
Rory McIlroy ($23), Hunter Mahan ($25), Matt Kuchar ($26), Dustin Johnson ($25) and Martin Kaymer ($30) all have serious hopes and sit in the top 10 lines of betting. Kaymer is in 10th and looks the best of them, while McIlroy is knocking on the door of a major win.

Not convinced the Americans can win their nation's title.

OUTSIDERS
Pretty keen on KJ Choi ($40) - he revels in the conditions of a major tournament. He's at $40 to win, and most attractively, $4.90 for the top-10.

There are a number of proven players in majors I'm keen to back for the win and top-10 - at a 30% win and 70% top-10 stake. They are Choi, Jim Furyk, David Toms, Angel Cabrera, Ian Poulter and Gregory Havret.

Same applies for Kaymer and McIlroy. There's a decent number worth backing, and it might seem like too many, but this is a difficult, difficult major tournament.

IN SUMMARY:
MOST KEEN ON
Jason Day ticks all of the boxes. Make no mistakes, he is the real deal and has the temperament, and talent to win a major at this stage of his career.

There's no doubt he will win a major before too long. Back him for the outright win, top 10 and top 20, aswell as top Aussie. Have something on Adam Scott - with the majority of the stake on him making the top-10, at ridiculous odds of $11.

The long putter has transformed his game, and we all know how good a ball striker he is. Have something on him for the top Aussie too, incase Day goes awry.

Back Lee Westwood, Phil Mickelson, Martin Kaymer and Rory Mcilroy for the win, but make sure Day is your biggest result.

Back KJ Choi, focussing on the $4.90 for a top-10 finish. Tipping against Luke Donald - fine player, but ready to win a major just yet? Debatable. Lay him.

SMALL BETS ON
Have something tiny on Nick O'Hern to make the top-10 and top-20. This tournament suits his composed and consistent style of play. Small bets on Robert Allenby for top-10 and top-20.

Small each-way bets on Jim Furyk, David Toms, Angel Cabrera, Ian Poulter and Gregory Havret.