A favourite & an outsider for World Champs warm-up
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/ David Hendon / 29 March 2010 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

Mark Selby can land the China Open
Selby's main problem in Beijing may not be his draw or the quality of the field but the fact that he hasn't had a competitive match for two months because of the sparse calendar - which is due to change if new World Snooker chairman Barry Hearn gets his way.
David Hendon looks at the odds before the China Open gets underway in Beijing.
Mark Selby is regarded by many - including me - as one of modern snooker's finest match players possessing a steely nerve under pressure, solid tactical game and excellent break building skills. Selby's biggest moments so far are his capture of the prestigious Wembley Masters in 2010 and 2008 and his run to the World Championship final in 2007. It is worth remembering, though, that he has only ever won one ranking title, the 2008 Welsh Open.
Greatness in any sport is decided by titles and though Selby is widely respected by his fellow players, he wants trophies and needs them to continue to justify his reputation. The China Open in Beijing can provide him with a second ranking triumph. Betfair punters make him fourth favourite to win the title at an inviting [9.6].
He should clear his opening hurdle against Rod Lawler, a methodical Liverpudlian journeyman, or Thailand 's Supoj Saenla, one of eight invited Asian wildcards. Selby could then face local hero Ding Junhui, who has struggled badly in his home country since winning the title as an 18 year-old five years ago.
A quarter-final then awaits against, most probably, either defending champion Peter Ebdon or Australian Neil Robertson. Crucially, Selby finds himself in the opposite half to three of the world's top four players, Ronnie O'Sullivan, John Higgins and Shaun Murphy.
His main problem in Beijing may not be his draw or the quality of the field but the fact that he hasn't had a competitive match for two months because of the sparse calendar - which is due to change if new World Snooker chairman Barry Hearn gets his way. Selby may therefore be a little rusty but he practises hard and, at 26, is still at that age where playing snooker is something he does most days whether there's a tournament coming up or not.
At this time of the year, the thoughts of the snooker world turn to Sheffield 's Crucible Theatre and the slow burning drama of the World Championship, which begins on April 17, but the China Open is more than just a warm up event. With £55,000 to the winner and precious ranking points, it has become one of the game's major tournaments but you can forgive the very top stars for focusing instead on what's around the corner.
Not since 1998 has the player winning the last event before the World Championship gone on to triumph at the Crucible. The likes of O'Sullivan and Higgins are unlikely to go flat out in Beijing as they would in Sheffield , even though they deserve to be at the top of the betting. For this reason, it may be worth a small investment on one of the outsiders and Barry Hawkins at [50.0] for the title fits the bill.
Hawkins, ranked 17th in the world, has appeared in four ranking event semi-finals but has lacked some self belief in the past and not made good on his potential. He has a tough starter against Stephen Maguire but is the tricky sort of qualifier none of the top seeds would want to draw.
Fergal O'Brien can be backed at [5.1] to beat John Higgins in the first round. Though current form suggests this is unlikely, the determined Dubliner has just qualified for the Crucible and can take advantage of any lapse of motivation the reigning world champion may have. Graeme Dott, the 2007 China Open champion, is more than capable of beating Mark Allen and Ebdon could be vulnerable against 20 year-old potting machine Judd Trump.


