Twenty20 / Editor / 03 June 2009 / Leave a comment Bet Now

Ed Hawkins has found some surprising stats on batting averages in Twenty20 cricket which could be used to turn a handy profit at the upcoming World Cup.

The conventional wisdom when it comes to deciding who to follow in top batsmen markets in limited overs cricket is to side with an opener. Coming to the conclusion that the Nos 1 or 2 have the opportunity to bat the most overs is hardly the kind of thinking that will get you employed by NASA.

It would appear even more relevant for the World Twenty20, which starts on Friday. With the batting side only afforded a short amount of time to flurry and be frenzied those going in first have a huge advantage, not to mention the opportunity to swing with more freedom because of the fielding restrictions in the opening six overs.

So to discover that opening batsmen in Twenty20 do not dominate the top runscorer lists as expected requires soulful contemplation. It is a bit like having read the Bible and insisting that the best way to get across water is to walk, only to later find out that boats are far more efficient.

Of the top 10 runscorers in all Twenty20 internationals, only four of them are openers and of the first 25 only 10 bat at Nos 1 or 2. Those numbers are low considering so much is in the opening batsman's favour.

Immediately, we should be looking at prices for Virender Sehwag - who could be hampered by a shoulder injury - Graeme Smith and Chris Gayle, openers who are likely to be heavily supported, with harsher eyes.

The overshadowing of openers in Twenty20 appears consistent. In the Indian Premier League four of the top 10 batted outside the front two. In the 2008 English domestic Twenty20 Cup the numbers were the same. Care to hazard a guess at the ratio in the 2007 World Twenty20? Yep, four out of 10.

Admittedly in each of those competitions an opener did lead the pack, but two of them were headed by Matt Hayden, who has retired. And the number of openers in the higher echelons are not great enough to make it a solid-enough betting strategy this time around.

One could even go as far as argue that because the new ball is likely to zip around more in England. Openers are going to be more vulnerable than ever before, especially ones from the sub-continent who are not used to the moving ball.

With our search for the best value taking us into the middle of the batting orders, it is pertinent to list those who are probably going to open the batting for their teams. From previous matches and what we have seen in the warm-ups the pairings are likely to be: Australia - Watson/Haddin, England - Bopara/Key, Bangaldesh - Iqbal/Rahman, India - Sehwag/Gambhir, New Zealand - McCullum/Guptill, Pakistan - Butt/Shehzad, South Africa - Smith/Gibbs, Sri Lanka - Dilshan/Jayasuriya, West Indies - Gayle/Sarwan.

The statistics suggest that Kevin Pietersen, trading at [27.0], is likely to bat at No 3 for England, is one of the better value trades. That sentence was not easy to write for this column considering it has previously been unsure about his talent in this format.

But the numbers do not lie. Pietersen's pedigree is hugely impressive. He came fifth in the lists in 2007, is fifth on the chart for most Twenty20 runs and is a place lower in the highest strike rates.

Others with credentials are Pakistan's Shoaib Malik, not yet listed, and he has vast knowledge of English conditions having played county cricket. He was fourth in 2007 and is third on the all-time runscorers. A place above him in each of those is team-mate Misbah, although he is recovering from a groin injury.

The best way to get with Shoaib could be to back him at [5.0] for top Pakistan runscorer, a price which looks an absolute steal given his history.

Just as important as where a batsman bats is the team he plays for. Pakistan are expected to make the semi-finals, giving their men plenty of matches. Sri Lanka, who should be in the same Super Eight group can also go well.

Most of their runscoring could be done by the excellent Mahela Jayawardene, who is available at [36.0]. He should bat at No 3 or 4, has scored runs in England before and was tenth and ninth in the 2007 lists and all-time strike rate lists.