Twenty20 / Ed Hawkins / 02 May 2010 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

The World Twenty20 favourites take on the champions in St Lucia on Sunday. Ed Hawkins says Shahid Afridi's men have been written off already and need the toss to go their way to cause an upset.

Team news
Perhaps Pakistan like a challenge? The holders, who have a win percentage of 73 which dwarfs every other international side, were clearly finding Twenty20 too easy so before this tournament decided to go into meltdown. Their preparation has been abysmal.

Rows, suspensions and a warm-up humbling to Zimbabwe aside, Umar Gul and Yasir Arafat have been lost to injury and Shahid Afridi, that paragon of virtue, will lead. Much relies on the Akmal brothers with the bat but their bowling, including the excellent spinner Saeed Ajmal, is fine.

Australia's is getting better. The loss of Brett Lee to injury was surely no loss at all, especially as Ryan Harris replaced him. Had they found room for Doug Bollinger, too, the Aussies might have been worth backing on the outright.

Venue and conditions
The threat of thunderstorms make us aware of a reduced-overs affair. Australia have won two from two at the Beausejour Stadium, St Lucia, including a crushing World Cup semi-final victory over South Africa. Shaun Tait was the destroyer that day with 4-39. Pakistan also have two wins from two in 50-over cricket.

Match odds
Let's give Pakistan the benefit of the doubt. Sure, we should never put 100% trust in them but write them off at your peril and they have a better chance than odds of [2.60] suggest. Australia are [1.54].

If Afridi can call the coin toss correctly, bat first and post something in the region of 150 then his team are in the game and are likely to be trading around even money. After that, Afridi and Ajmal are capable of putting a life-threatening squeeze on the tournament favourites.

Australia also lost to Zimbabwe in the warm-ups and although plenty get seduced by the planning, preparation and professionalism, that only goes so far in this format. Natural ability and flair is probably more important. And had this game been priced up on those qualities, Pakistan would be jollies.

Featured market
The highest individual score mark has been set at 68.5. Going under could be one of the plays of the early part of the tournament on slow wickets.

Top batsman
Australia captain Michael Clarke made 75 not out against West Indies at this ground in 2003. Yes, he's been around that long. He is [4.00]. Openers David Warner and Shane Watson are both priced at [2.40]. Afridi will get most attention for Pakistan. He is [4.50]. The forgotten man is Misbah - star of the first World T20 - who is [4.50] under Any Other Batsman.

Ed Hawkins says: Back Pakistan...if they bat first