Cricket / Ed Hawkins / 05 August 2010 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

Hammered by 354 runs in the first Test, can Pakistan improve in game two at Edgbaston which starts on Friday? Ed Hawkins is not so sure and is surprised a dominant England are not shorter in the betting.

Team news

In a move which bears the hallmark of chaos theory, Pakistan have recalled Mohammad Yousuf. He's not fit, has had no match practice, had previously been banned from international cricket by his own board for being a disruptive influence, neither captain or coach want him and most of the players dislike him. Oh, and he might not get here in time anyway because of problems getting a visa.

Apart from all that, it's a shrewd move. Danish Kaneria has also fallen victim to knee-jerk selection policy. He has been sent back to Essex which leaves the way clear for Saeed Ajmal to claim the spinner's slot. If Yousuf does arrive, then it is likely that either Azhar Ali or Umar Amin will make way.

By contrast, England look certain to be unchanged. James Anderson, who claimed 11 wickets in the first Test hammering at Trent Bridge, should again find conditions to his liking.

Venue and conditions
Edgbaston is England's most successful home ground with a win-loss ratio of 2.75. Pakistan have never won there. We should expect bowler-friendly conditions and another severe test of technique for Pakistan.

The average first-innings score in nine matches since 2000 is 315. That's not too bad but no side has passed 263 in the last three first-innings. In county cricket this season, the average first-innings score is 250.

It should swing. Matthew Hoggard and Dominic Cork bent it round corners in the past and the pair are second and joint-third on the list for best bowling strike rates at the venue. Anderson has a surprisingly high strike rate, though, of a wicket every 58 balls.

Light rain on the first two days only adds to the feeling that it will be bowlers to the fore. That means Pakistan could do very well indeed to pass 275 or more on the first-innings runs market. A finish inside three days is [10.00], the morning of day four is the same price while afternoon and evening is [8.40] and [6.40] respectively.

Match odds
It looks bleak indeed for Pakistan. Shot out for 182 and 80 and having failed to bolster their batting, they could be forgiven for turning up with a mindset that they are already beaten. The match odds market is be generous, however. England are [1.67] with Pakistan [6.00] and the draw [4.20].

Granted in Mohammad Aamer, Mohammad Asif and Umar Gul Pakistan have bowlers to trouble England - their top four couldn't muster more than 160 between them - but we want more from the odds. Pakistan were [9.0] to beat Australia at Leeds and while that price was wrong, something in the region of [8.0] would suit here.

It means that England rate a decent wager. How are Pakistan's batsmen going to get enough runs to give their bowlers a fair chance?

Top batsman
All eyes will be on two men, Kevin Pietersen and Yousuf. Damningly for KP, Yousuf is not far behind in match practice ahead of this Test. Both are taken to struggle.

Pietersen is [4.8] to be top England runscorer but scores of 22 and nine at Trent Bridge make him bad value. Had he bothered to go and get a game before and since we might have been forced to rethink.

He does have the best average (57) of England's top six at the venue. Andrew Strauss (47) is next best and he might be the bet at [4.8]. Alastair Cook averages 35, Paul Collingwood 34 and Matt Prior 41 (one innings).

As for Pakistan, Shoaib Malik would rank as a top wager. He has the tightest technique, aside from Yousuf, and has experience of English conditions. He looked in reasonable touch in Nottingham.

Recommended Bet: Back England at [1.67]