South Africa v England ODI 4
The series is tied at 1-1 after South Africa's destruction of England at Newlands but Ed Hawkins reckons punters should not get overexcited about the manner of that victory and the tourists could hit back in friendly conditions at Port Elizabeth.
South Africa and England are level pegging as they head into the fourth one-day international in Port Elizabeth on Sunday. Both sides appear to have hit on formulas they are happy with.
The home side called up Morne Morkel to add strength to their bowling attack for a crushing 112-win in Cape Town but it was the fit-again Wayne Parnell who stole the show, claiming five wickets. Andrew Strauss will feel quietly confident that they can pinch the series with Stuart Broad returning to the fold with four victims of his own.
It would be a surprise if South Africa made any changes for the game at St Georges Park but one would feel happier about backing them if they found room for another batsman. Ryan McLaren's profligate- he went for nearly seven an over - display as part of six bowlers at Newlands makes him vulnerable.
On that basis, a case could be made for Herschelle Gibbs. He has a fine record at the venue with a brilliant century against Australia there earlier this year and 93 not out against India two years ago.
This is a day game so the sides have no fears about the toss being key like it was at Cape Town. The bowlers will be more confident, too. Newlands was a featherbed but there will be some seam and swing to exploit on the coast.
An even contest with bat and ball can be expected. In the last 10 day ODIs, five sides have failed to pass more than 250 in first-innings and the average score is 253. The weather is set fair with sun forecast.
South Africa are [1.55] for victory after the apparent natural order was restored at Newlands. The victory ended a run of six straight defeats to England and the gulf in class was that of the world No 3 side taking on one ranked three places below.
However, one should not write off England, who are [2.76] for this match. South Africa's batsman got lucky in Cape Town because they were able to strike through the line with carefree abandon because the game was won as soon as skipper Smith was given the option to bat first.
The psychological impact of having to bat second at a ground where only two from the
last 14 had triumphed under lights was a downer for England. But PE could bring them back to the heights.
There is far more in the wicket for their bowlers and as everyone knows, England are capable of beating any side in the world so long as they can get some assistance for their pacemen. James Anderson, for example, could be dangerous with the new ball.
England must counter an impressive South Africa record at the ground, however. They have won seven of the last 10 and have a three-wicket victory over England at the venue.
The majority of the money for the top South Africa batsman will go on AB de Villiers following his brutal 121 at Newlands. He is [4.80] to take honours again and he has ground form to back him up. Earlier this year against Australia he hit 84 off 74 balls.
England shuffled their order for game three with Luke Wright moving up to open but that is unlikely to happen again. Strauss has yet to rediscover his form from the early part of the tour but Kevin Pietersen is beginning to look strong. His 45 suggests a big innings is not far away. He is [4.70] with Paul Collingwood, top-bat at Newlands, at [6.00].
Our first-innings averages stats suggest a lay of 275 runs or more could be a decent wager.