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First test betting: Australia v New Zealand - Australia's Last Hurrah

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The end of empire is nearing. Australia are an aging team with a fragile bowling attack and a questionable leadership. But even with some appalling and incredibly divisive selection blunders, Australia will not be beaten by New Zealand at the Gabba, writes Nick Tedeschi.

The Australian cricket team has long regarded itself as a team of cowboys in white hats, uncompromising and hard but always on the side of right, dust ridden and bloody and always heroic. They are a team who have prided themselves on beating down, both physically and mentally, any team to come their way. They have been the undeniable cricket power, the feared and undisputed world champions.

Those days are almost over, however. The halcyon days of the empire are on the verge of being consigned to history. Australia are just another team now, a side with an unsure captain, no spin bowler, a brittle pace attack and an aging batting line-up. Even the fabric of the team is looking a little more worn with the popular local support and the mental toughness that has been a hallmark of the Australian team over the last fifteen years no longer as assured as it once was.

The Australian selection panel has done little to assist the side with a series of baffling decisions that have caused a number of internal divisions within Australian cricket. The decision to play Cameron White for three Tests in India was strange, at best. The protection of Brett Lee, despite his indifferent form, is considered another example of the perceived favouritism. Most controversial, however, has been the decision to select Andrew Symonds for the first Test.

Symonds has barely averaged double figures with the bat for Queensland since being dropped from the national team for disciplinary reasons yet has been recalled ahead of the in-form and always unlucky Brad Hodge and could even push Shane Watson, who performed well in India, from the starting eleven.

While there is little doubt Australia is reaching the end of a golden age, expedited by the strange behaviour of the selection panel, there is still enough quality to defeat a New Zealand side bereft of experience and talent after being torn apart by a number of defections to the Indian Cricket League.

Only three of the New Zealand squad have played more than 20 Test matches while skipper Daniel Vettori is the only player in the Black Caps team who would get a run in the Baggy Green.

The potential loss of keeper-batsman Brendan McCullum to injury has only further hurt New Zealand's chances. It appears as if McCullum will play but only as a specialist batsman, which would force the Black Caps to drop one of their pace quartet for the replacement gloveman.

Simply, New Zealand do not have the talent or the experience to compete with Australia at the best of times and with queries over injury and team balance, the Black Caps look little chance in the first Test. Their dismal performance against an undermanned New South Wales team in their only lead-up match has shown just how big the gulf is in terms of talent there is between the two teams

The venue of the first Test will do New Zealand no favours either with Australia not losing a Test at the Gabba since 1988. Over that period there have been only five drawn Test matches with Australia winning five matches by over an innings, three Test matches by ten wickets and three Test matches by in excess of 250 runs.

It would appear only rain could save New Zealand in the first Test but the forecast suggests there will only be a smattering of rain over the first two days. Traders can confidently bet Australia to win the first Test.

Anything above 1.30 is over the odds. If Australia win the toss and bat, that price drops to 1.20. Bettors looking for more value should work around Australia scoring between 350-450 runs. Though Australia's batting lacks depth, there is enough talent in the top four to suggest Australia will still post a strong score on what is traditionally a batting deck that suits Australia.

Punters looking to involve themselves in the player exotic markets should focus heavily on Ricky Ponting. The Australian captain averages 74.66 at the Gabba and has not scored less than 50 in his last eight digs at the ground. Ponting also has a tremendous record against New Zealand, averaging 73.45 with two tons and four fifties (and six not outs) from seventeen innings. He can be bet heavily in the score 50 and score 100 markets and can also be tried in the high bat market. Michael Hussey, Matthew Hayden and Michael Clarke also average over 60 at the Gabba and should not be taken on in batting head-to-head markets.

For New Zealand, it would be a wise move to lay How, Redmond, Flynn and McCullum in the score 100 market. How, Redmond and Flynn have done very little in their 24 combined tests (1 half-century between them) while McCullum will likely play with a severe back injury. Jesse Ryder looks a likely type and is the style of aggressive player who traditionally worries Australia and he can be bet to top score for New Zealand. A small bet on Daniel Vettori is also not out of order as he will lead any rearguard action if the top order collapses. The skipper is in good form with the bat having knocked up two half-centuries in his last three innings.

The Australia-New Zealand series will not finish like David and Goliath. Rather, it will follow the traditional sitcom formula: a little bit of drama before everything expectedly returns to normalcy by the end of the episode. The Fonz remained the hero, George Costanza was still neurotic and Australia will again come out on top. This may be their last hurrah but it will be an hurrah nonetheless.