Celebrity / Paul Bugeja / 12 May 2011 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

They're the 2.96 favourites but the stats say Europe will deliver a stern 'non' to the French on Saturday night, offers the Betfair Contrarian.

The Eurovision Song Contest in the 21st century has largely been a tale of first-time winners and Big Four (United Kingdom, Germany, France and Spain) failure, but Germany's 2010 victory appears to have changed the landscape. Indeed, the top of this year's winner market looks most unfamiliar, with France, Ireland (Jedward) and the UK (Blue) leading the way. The Contrarian wisely steered punters away from last year's favourites Azerbaijan though, and this year recommends giving operatic French entry "Sognu" the elbow this time at 2.98...

"Sognu" is certain to divide opinion
Twenty-one-year-old tenor Amaury Vassili's "Sognu" has received huge support from Betfair punters, currently trading at 2.96 to triumph having at one point been backed at 250.0. It's expected to be a big hit with the judges that have a 50 per cent weighting in the vote for each nation, however the other half is determined by the viewing public, and how they will respond to a highbrow submission which varies drastically from the standard Eurovision fare is unclear, with the majority of modern winners either being simple ballads, high-tempo pop and occasionally rock that doesn't take itself too seriously.

It's a good song, but it's still France!
Several recent French Eurovision Song Contest entries have quite rightly been derided, however there is no disputing that this year's offering is their most promising in ages, with the decision to go down the opera route ensuring that it will stand out from the crowd. Even so, a good track is no guarantee of success, especially when your record in the competition is as dire as France's. They haven't won since 1977 and haven't even hit the podium positions since 1991, while their results have grown progressively worse, with just one top-ten finish in eight years and three of their last six attempts landing in the bottom four.

And the draw has been very unkind
France's call to pick a song that differs from almost everything else on the show is perhaps influenced by the belief that something unique is more likely to be remembered, so their strategy has been clearly compromised by the draw forcing them to be the 11th of the 25 challengers on stage, and perform right before equally left-field Italian choice "Follia d'amore". The last six finals have all been won by one of the eight closing acts, while the middle of the pack is the worst place to be, with only one of the 90 acts drawn in positions nine to 17 over the last decade finishing first.

They've got the language decision all wrong
Sebastien Tellier's 2008 effort "Divine" was a solid Eurovision song produced by Daft Punk's Guy-Manuel de Homem-Christo, yet it divided opinion in France due to the inclusion of some English lyrics. Much to French vexation, English is undeniably now the language of Eurovision, having been the tongue adopted by 11 of the last 12 winners. In 2010, all of the seven highest scorers sung in English, while the finalists that opted for another dialect wound up in an average place of 13th. So though the decision to abandon French seems shrewd, singing in Corsican on "Sognu" might not be the wisest of choices.

There are safer options available at bigger prices
Female solo stars have claimed top spot in six of the last eight years so the absence of any in the top four of the market is begging to be exploited. Last year's champion Lena - tipped by the Contrarian at 5.8 on that occasion - is back to defend her crown on home soil for Germany 21.0 and while "Taken by a Stranger" isn't as catchy as "Satellite", she has a huge fanbase and was clearly liked by the judges. Another intriguing contender is Getter Jaidi of Estonia 14.0, whose song "Rockefeller Street" should breeze through the second semi-final.

For an alternative take on this year's Eurovision Song Contest please follow @betfairpoker twitter feed.

We will be running Eurovision themed free roll this Saturday at 7pm UK time (Password: Big Carlos)