Celebrity / Will Hamer / 01 March 2010 / Leave a comment Bet Now

A week out from the Oscars, Will Hamer goes searching for spoilers in the awards' acting categories.

It's rare to find a winner at double-figure odds at the Oscars.

I can only think of three such cases: Crash, winning Best Picture in 2006; Tilda Swinton, landing Best Supporting Actress the following year; and perhaps the biggest of them all, Marisa Tomei, winning the Oscar for My Cousin Vinny in 1993. Tomei's win was such a shock, that some pundits wondered whether award presenter Jack Palance, then in his 80s, had mistakenly read out the wrong name (the beancounters who tally the votes verified that Tomei had indeed won.)

So, while it's somewhat of a fool's game to be chasing roughies at the Oscars, the ability to lay on Betfair gives us punters a chance to take on red-hot favourites without blowing the bank.

This year, like every year, plenty of the 24 categories are considered locked, but some to me are less certain than others.

Jeff Bridges, for example, has been in the red since January and appears set to win his first-ever Oscar after four previous nominations.

The argument goes that he is owed by the Academy. While I think he will win, I'm not convinced that his current price of 1.20 or so is value. He could easily lose to Academy favourite George Clooney, the recent BAFTA winner Colin Firth or, and here's where value comes into play, Jeremy Renner in The Hurt Locker.

Renner is the non-star 'star' of this movie, which has nine nominations and is the favourite for Best Picture. He was essential to how well received The Hurt Locker has been. That he's trading north of $20 is mystifying yet so, so appetising. If The Hurt Locker sweeps, Renner may well end up getting a nice ride all the way to a Best Actor Oscar.

The race for Best Actress, meanwhile, looks like a race in two.

Sandra Bullock v Meryl Streep.

And indeed it is.

Bullock has all the momentun and is well liked in the industry, while Streep has a record 16 nominations, has won twice and, importantly like Bullock, plays a real person. The Academy loves a biopic for its leading ladies.

You could say they are myopic for the biopic.

Fellow nominee Carey Mulligan also plays a real person, but one that Academy members would have never heard of and I think, despite her BAFTA win, she is not a threat to either Bullock or Meryl.

If there is a spoiler, it will be from Gabourey Sidibe, the star of Precious. Sure, it's her first-ever role, she's as far away from the ingénues the Academy often picks for lead actress, but it would be such a fairytale and would be the best speech of the night.

As for the supporting categories, forget about them. Christoph Waltz and Mo'Nique have been deep in the red all season long. They have won every major precursor and will both collect their much-deserved Oscars.