Betfair

Political betting tips, odds and opinion

First debate betting reaction

Celebrity RSS / Eliot Pollak / 19 April 2010 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

Yet there was Nick Clegg, cheekily standing on the side, hand in pocket like a teenager too cool to dance at his older sister's wedding.

Clegg impresses, Brown makes least gaffes, and the other one plays at being PM before he's got the job done. Eliot Pollak reviews debate no.1

Thursday April 15, 2010. Scheduling clash of the night. Channel 5 at 9pm, 'Welcome to the Jungle.' Over on ITV however, the jungle had been rumbling for a good half hour already.

Could it possibly live up to its billing? Viewing figures were set to be immense - everyone was going to watch this. That annoying bloke at work, who for two weeks a year is keen to discuss whether Murray has the second serve to beat Federer, was all of a sudden banging on about the chances of there being a 'Dan Quayle moment.' So what has the post-mortem shown?

Well, the set was borrowed from 'Going For Gold', the audience were borrowed from Court 1 at Wimbledon, and the majority of the debate was borrowed from the 1970s.

Labour investment versus Tory cuts. 90 minutes of tedium unsurpassed since the 2008 FA Cup Final. Yet there was Nick Clegg, cheekily standing on the side, hand in pocket like a teenager too cool to dance at his older sister's wedding. As the immediate polls reflected, it was his presence that would define the evening.

The betting markets were in no mood to disagree. The big shift of the night occurred around 45 minutes in, when the Lib Dems moved into [60.0] to win the most seats. Starting the evening at [150.0], this immense market over-reaction must have fed on the feeling the viewing public had i.e. Clegg's shtick of being a little bit different was paying dividends.

Following a similar pattern, the price of 'no overall majority' saw a slight shortening over the course of the debate, whereas the prices on both a Labour and Conservative majority lengthened.

Whilst the movement in the markets reflects the strong performance of the third party, the incremental level of that movement, points to the fact that stand-out moments in the debate were few and far between. The truth is of course, that on many issues, there simply isn't too much between the parties. Nerves certainly restrained all three men, whilst Alastair Stewart didn't help by behaving as if he was still hosting 'Police, Camera, Action.' "Mr Cameron drop the weapon. Mr Cameron. Mr Cameron." Were Ant & Dec unavailable? Pull your finger out ITV!!!

The tones of the three men were set early on, and pretty much stuck to type. The big clunking fist rattled off some dubious statistics, and continuously attempted to draw the Lib Dems into his big tent. Cameron adopted a more sombre, mature tone in an effort to look Prime Ministerial. Clegg leaned away from the other two, his body language a reflection of his words.

For fans of own goals, it was hardly a Frank Sinclair fest. David Cameron probably threatened his own onion bag the most - be it when he claimed his 40-year-old black friend from Plymouth had been in the navy for 30 years (bringing a whole new meaning to buoys at sea), and most spectacularly, when he claimed a key reason for renewing Trident is that nobody knows what will happen with China. That would be the key British ally China. William Hague may wish to avoid Beijing in his first few months as foreign secretary.

Clegg had his blunders too. Eagerly revealing that schools have on average 4,000 pages of information sent to them per year, with all the glee of a man revealing an impressive sexual conquest, he clearly hadn't been listening when Cameron wheeled out exactly the same stat just seconds earlier. In addition, he advocated Saturday school to the young orthodox Jewish boy who had questioned him on education. Six days you shall work Cleggy. Just not that one.

Against all the odds, it was Brown who made the least errors. Perhaps that explains his ebullient shaking of hands at the end, engaging with the crowd in a manner not seen in the UK since Kurt Cobain played Leeds.

One down. Two to go. I'll be back next week to review the Sky News debate, or possibly the Europa League semi-final first leg. Hodgson for PM anyone?

Post a comment


© Betfair 2007–8 | Gamble responsibly. For more information and advice visit www.gambleaware.co.uk | CONTACT US ON: haveyoursay@betfair.com