Betting tips / Paul Krishnamurty / 02 November 2011 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

Some very big names have assembled in China for the final WGC event of the season, but who makes Paul Krishnamurty's selections for the first day of action?

5u Jim Furyk @ [2.4] (vs Karlsson, Ikeda) (Starts 00.55)
A tried and trusted strategy in three-ball betting is to look for groups including one very weak link, in the hope that it effectively becomes a match. Such a move makes particularly good sense this week, because the Shanghai field contains so many apparent no-hopers. Take Yuta Ikeda, who owes his third straight appearance in the event to achievements on the Japanese Tour. He couldn't manage better than 30th on either previous attempt, when in much better form than now. Ikeda's failure to make any of his last six top-tens in that low grade reads poorly at this level, and he withdrew last week after opening with 75.

A case could be made on course form for either of the principals, but preference is for Jim Furyk, who closed the PGA Tour season strongly with three top-11 finishes from his last five events. Alternatively, Robert Karlsson was disappointing last time out when 45th in the Dunhill Links, an event he'd previously won.

4u Louis Oosthuizen @ [2.6] (vs Casey, Liang) (Starts 01.05)
An almost identical argument applies here, with Wen-Chong Liang the weak link. Liang's recent numbers in Japan are well below his best and in any case, a best of 24th from six attempts here suggests Sheshan isn't his course. In contrast, both Paul Casey and Louis Oosthuizen have shown a liking for this test before.

Casey is far from ruled out, but slight preference is for the South African after some eye-catching runs. Fourth place in the McGladrey Classic, following on from fifth at the Dunhill, was Oosthuizen's best Stateside effort to date and with his home tournaments coming up, he looks very much one to follow in the weeks ahead. Interestingly, Louis made the top-20 at Sheshan in 2007 and 2008 when a relative nobody, long before he won the Open.

4u Rory McIlroy @ [2.28] (vs Schwartzel, Watney) (Starts 01.25)
Given that Rory McIlroy is an extremely prohibitive [5.8] to win the tournament, I'm a little surprised to see him trading at odds-against for this group. Granted, the opposition is high-class, and there is no obvious argument to be made against either Charl Schwartzel or Nick Watney. Nevertheless, Rory is bang in form after five consecutive top-three finishes and has water-tight credentials this week. Notably, he started slowly before making the top-five on both previous visits. It will come as no surprise to see the older, wiser and improving McIlroy put himself in contention right from the outset this time.

4u Lee Westwood @ [2.4] (vs Bradley, Scott) (Starts 01.45)
Here's another marquee group, and again I'm opting for the favourite. Lee Westwood's second place here 12 months ago must rank as one of unluckiest defeats of his career, having finished nine shots ahead of the third, and I fancy him to take revenge this time. Sunday's closing 67 to grab a share of fifth behind McIlroy in the Shanghai Masters carried the mark of a man priming himself for the crucial closing Race to Dubai events.

Again, it would be harsh to try and find fault with another world-class opponent in Adam Scott, but I'm less keen on the third man, Keegan Bradley. The PGA champ has enjoyed a fantastic rookie season, but it would be asking a lot for Bradley to contend on his first outing in Asia.

3u Jeev Milkha-Singh @ [3.3] (vs McDowell, Lewis) (Starts 02.05)
I'm not convinced Jeev Milkha Singh really deserves to be the outsider of this trio. Brilliant youngster Tom Lewis is all the rage on only his fifth professional start but again, this is a kid making his first trip to Asia and he may need time to acclimatise. Graeme McDowell on the other hand is an experienced class act, albeit in shocking form as seen by Sunday's 82 at Valderrama. Singh's course record is at least comparable to Gmac's, and India's best ever player comes here in solid enough form, having made the top-ten in Malaysia last weekend.