Betting tips / Paul Krishnamurty / 11 August 2011 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

Six of the best for day one from Paul Krishnamurty.

6u Brendon de Jonge @ [2.0] (vs Rollins, Stevens) (Starts 12:30)
There's a feast of marquee groups to follow throughout the day but before getting to them, it might pay to take an interest in the opening three-ball. Brendon De Jonge, John Rollins and Craig Stevens kick off proceedings, and assuming the last-named club professional doesn't surprise, it should boil down to a match between the two PGA Tour players.

Romily Evans has made a good case for backing De Jonge here, and it's hard to disagree. An excellent long-iron player who should be well suited to this layout, the Zimbabwean's last three opening rounds have been 66/65/66, creating a platform for consecutive top-13 finishes. While quite capable, Rollins is notably less consistent, nor in the same form.

3u Ross Fisher @ [3.1] (vs Cabrera, Cink) (Starts 13:05)
Ross Fisher's participation was in some doubt after he had to withdraw from last week's WGC-Bridgestone Invitational due to his young son's illness. Given that he's felt able to make the long trip to Georgia, we must assume he can properly focus on his golf again now. Fisher seemed to be coming into form before that disruption, and has a respectable record in US majors, making the top-20 in all three at some stage.

On the basis of his opponents' recent form, this group might not take much winning. Angel Cabrera has been struggling for driving accuracy all season, and will likely come a cropper at Atlanta without significant improvement in this regard. Georgia favourite Stewart Cink seems more the type for this course, but played very poorly for the last three rounds at Firestone, where he usually thrives.

5u David Toms @ [2.9] (vs Mickelson, Singh) (Starts 13:15)
Next to the groups that will doubtless dominate the TV coverage. Firstly, David Toms rates the best value bet of the day against fellow former champions Phil Mickelson and Vijay Singh. Atlanta Athletic Club may have undergone substantial changes since Toms won the 2001 renewal here, but it still should play to his strengths. There is nobody more reliable from tee to green right now, and following another encouraging top-ten at Firestone, Toms looks a live candidate for the title. That simply couldn't be said of declining twice champion Singh, who is unlikely to enjoy these tough, firm and fast greens.

Mickelson should present a much bigger threat, in theory at least, although his performances over the past fortnight point to a dodgy favourite. After an unlikely second in a bad weather Open, Phil missed the cut when favourite at the Greenbrier Open before finishing a disappointing 48th at Firestone, missing over 50% of fairways.

3u Davis Love @ [3.5] (vs Woods, Harrington) (Starts 13:35)
Forget the fact that Davis Love's PGA title came long before those won by his two opponents, and his price is enormous, as he is in easily the best form of this trio. Love's last eight opening rounds have all been 70 or better, as the Georgia resident has hit a rich vein of form. His last four big tournaments - Quail Hollow, Sawgrass plus the two recent majors - all yielded top-20 finishes.

Those numbers are vastly superior to anything Harrington can boast, and the 2008 champ looks something of a lost cause this week. Tiger is far likelier to turn his form around, although he still carries the hallmarks of a weak favourite. Last week's comeback could have been worse, but the fact he hit less than 40% of fairways at Firestone must be a big worry. It is also notable that Tiger finished just 29th here in 2001, during arguably the best spell of his remarkable career.

3u Rickie Fowler @ [2.8] (vs Johnson, Garcia) (Starts 18:25)
One of the players to oppose this week, in my view, is Sergio Garcia. After showing tentative signs of returning to form, the last couple of weeks in the States have seen him struggling again, particularly on the greens. He is highly unlikely to enjoy these tricky Bermuda surfaces, measuring over 12 on the stimp-meter.

The question therefore is which of his two opponents to back. Both Rickie Fowler and Dustin Johnson should be well-suited to Atlanta, and both rate as strong candidates for the title. Preference is for Fowler, as he was vastly superior last week. Nobody took fewer putts than Fowler at Firestone, whereas Dustin struggled to hole anything.

5u Rory McIlroy @ [2.2] (vs Schwartzel, Clarke) (Starts 18:45)
Finally, this group brings together the three major champions of 2011. On the basis of a 12 over-par 68th place at Firestone, surprise Open winner Darren Clarke appears to offer little competition against these two majors specialists. Rory McIlroy's last five majors have produced three opening rounds of 65 or better, and nothing worse than 71. Charl Schwartzel has made the top-20 in his last six majors.

Again, the best form guide might be Firestone, another long par-70 with fast greens. Rory enjoyed an encouraging warm-up, finishing tied for sixth despite leaving many putts out there. Alternatively, Schwartzel had a rare bad week, especially on the greens.