Betting tips / Guy McCrea / 06 September 2011 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

Serena Williams remains the red-hot favourite on the markets to win a fourth US Open title. Guy McCrea wonders if anyone can prevent an American triumph in New York...

Even in the context of her stunning career, Serena Williams' form during this American hardcourt summer has been remarkable.

Remember, this is a woman who by her own admission almost died back in March after serious health problems. Serena then returned to action after almost a year out and understandably proved to be a pale imitation of her former Grand Slam-winning self as she lost in the fourth round of her Wimbledon title defence. As a result, the former world number one crashed down to 175 in the world rankings.

Since then though, the old Serena has returned with a vengeance. With each passing week, the 13-time Grand Slam singles champion has looked fitter and sharper and - most importantly - hungrier for success.

It is patently obvious how much this legend of women's tennis still intimidates even the top ranked players on the WTA. Serena has now won 15 straight matches in the American hardcourt swing - romping to WTA Premier titles in both Stanford and Toronto. She also dropped a mere 10 games in three matches during her march through the first week of the US Open.

Frankly, you don't have to cover the WTA every week as I do to deduce why she is the overwhelming favourite (currently priced at [1.56] on Betfair) on all the outright winner markets to claim four more match wins and seal what would be her fourth US Open title.

But if - and it's a huge if - Serena underperforms, then it is possible that she can be beaten. For me, it could come from someone playing Serena at her own game - a woman who is able to sustain the high standard of first-strike, high-risk tennis required.

Even though she lost to Serena, Victoria Azarenka showed the virtue of this approach at the end of the second set of their third round clash. The other way to upset the hot favourite upset is by someone with the wily all-court craft to frustrate Serena out of her comfort zone.

You'll read into this that I don't fancy Caroline Wozniacki's ([10.5] to win) chances of upending Serena should they meet in the semi-finals. Besides all the other pressures that the current world number one would take into that match, I just don't see how the Dane's superb retrieving game is enough alone to beat Serena. I like Wozniacki to win her quarter of the draw at [1.74] but beyond that, she still doesn't dictate play and hit winners often enough to stand a realistic chance against Serena. The American would have to hit a hatful of errors for Wozniacki to prevail.

One of those who can attack to the extent required is Ana Ivanovic. The 23-year-old Serbian plays Serena in the fourth round (18:00, Monday) and owns the tools - notably in her first serve and forehand - to prosper, but the Serb remains too unpredictable for me to be really sure that she can produce for long enough to beat Serena. As such, the bet for me is to back over 18.5 games at around [2.22].

If anyone still left in the tournament can surprise Serena, then I suspect it could be Francesca Schiavone - [15.0] to win their quarter of the draw. The former French Open champion's game is best-suited to clay but she is also a decent performer on hardcourts and unlike so many of the rest of the WTA's top brass, she is unlikely to be overawed by the prospect of facing Serena.

I don't believe Schiavone can win the tournament and actually think Wozniacki's chances increase if Serena is upset. But there is potential value in a small punt on Schiavone taking out Serena should they meet, and it could reap rewards provided that the American has an off-day and is frustrated into long rallies by the Italian's wily game.

That said, it remains extremely difficult to see anyone stopping Serena winning the US Open. Aside from her excellent form, fitness and confidence, the former world number one simply seems to be enjoying being back playing competitive tennis again. If she stays motivated, it is a truly daunting situation for the rest of the WTA.