Betting tips / Miaka Chen / 31 August 2010 / Leave a comment Bet Now

Mens Tournament

Roger Federer (3.3) has five titles and has played in the championship match six years running. Rafael Nadal (4.9) needs only this title to complete the 'career Grand Slam'. Andy Murray (4.8) has promise to win a major title for a while now, but is 0-2 on the big occasion. Robin Soderling (25), Tomas Berdych (26) and Marin Cilic (110) are queueing up to win a big one, and then there's Djokovic (15.5), Roddick (32) and Nalbandian (36) who have all been there (or very close) before.

The men's draw is tough to decipher. Nadal should be very comfortable until the quarters where he could face Gulbis or Nalbandian, followed by Murray or Berdych. Late in week two is when you would start worrying about his knees. He hasn't played too many matches in the lead-up events so he'll turn up nice and fresh.

Time is ticking on Roger Federer (3.3). No Wimbledon title this year, but he was apparently injured. Beaten by Murray in Toronto, then won Cincinnati although the draw fell away nicely for him. 29 doesn't sound too old (especially for the author who is about to turn 40!) but in tennis terms, if he's not over the hill yet, he's balancing right on the curved bit at the top.

Andy Murray (4.8) has promised to win one of these for a few years now, and keeps picking off the Masters Series events, the next tier down. He has Berdych in his quarter as well as the American giants Isner and Querrey. The talent is there, but can he get over the final hurdle? I think he can, but I'm not excited by the prices available. If it only comes down to the final three rounds, why take a similar price so early?

Djokovic (15.5) should have the world at his feet but this year has lost to Tsonga, Melzer and Berdych at the Slams. His odds have shot right out compared to previous Slams, his stocks are declining with every major he fails to contend in. He will have a hard time beating Roddick in this quarter, and possibly even Baghdatis or Fish before that.

Soderling (25) battled through his first round last night, needing five sets to beat a qualifier, but he can quickly shake that from his system. Cilic in R4 will be his first proper test, followed by Federer. How will a cool Swede handle the heat and humidity of New York in late summer?

Berdych has made a huge step forward this year and one more run like that will put him into the genuine contender on all surfaces category. He's close, very close and although he hasn't been past R4 of a hardcourt Slam, there's no reason why he shouldn't be able to step up again.

Don't rule out the wily Argentine veteran David Nalbandian (36). He has fought back from a series of injuries which would have sent a lesser man to a relaxing life on the golf course. Won a lot of matches recently in quick succession at Washington and Toronto, and is capable of giving any player on the tour a scare. If there's a shock in the top half of the draw, he's likely to be the one.

From an Aussie angle, now that Hewitt has gone, the cupboard is pretty bare. Carsten Ball (1000) won through the first round and is capable of winning another before facing Cilic.

Not sure who will lift the trophy in a fortnight's time, but three players I would look at trading in the winner market are Cilic, Nalbandian and Roddick. They are all capable, and given the right circumstances, can each beat a top seed. Roddick can win his quarter on merit, the other two will need things to go their way a little.

Women's Tournament

The women's draw has been robbed of the presence of Serena Williams (who, you could argue, should have been banned anyway after last year's behaviour) and Justine Henin. Without the two genuine number ones of the last decade, the title is wide open. So many star players with question marks against their name either in the big events, or for fitness.

Kim Clijsters (4.8) is defending champion and the obvious top pick. She had an injury scare in Montreal recently, but says her hip will be fine. Caroline Wozniacki (8) is top seed despite not winning anything of note. She was runner-up here last year and is knocking on the door. She has a very tricky quarter though, with Sharapova (6.4) R4 and Kuznetsova (27) in the quarters in her path, just to make the final four.

Maria Sharapova (6.4) is a conundrum. She has reached the final at three of her last four events, but lost them all. Her serve is the last part of her game to return after her injury break, how will it fare under Grand Slam pressure. She is second favourite here, but with Wozniacki (8) and Kuznetsova (27) in her path, not forgetting Aussie Jarka Groth (430) in R1, an outright bet needs a lot of confidence in her serve when it really counts.

Sam Stosur (36) has had injury issues of late, but says she's over it (strained bicep) and just needs match practice. She required three sets to beat the handy Vesnina in R1, she will have to improve each time in order to beat Kleybanova (170), Dementieva (21) and Clijsters (4.8) just in her quarter. Tough task ahead and I struggle to see her going too deep, but will be cheering her on regardless.

As always, there are several Russian women with a chance: Vera Zvonareva (19) reached the Wimbledon final and should now have the self-belief that she belongs at that end of the premier events. She has a soft draw and I like her chances. Elena Dementieva is back after missing Wimbledon with a calf injury. She is in the same quarter as Stosur and Clijsters, but won't go home without a massive fight.

Svetlana Kuznetsova (27) has won here before and has been in fine form in recent weeks. The top quarter of the draw is tricky, but at least she only has to meet one of Wozniacki and Sharapova should she get that far. Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (60) might be worth 43 pts on a Scrabble board but she is rising with a bullet this year, halving her ranking since January. She'll face Azarenka (10.5) in R3, but apart from that, her quarter is winnable.

The other contenders in the third quarter of the draw are Venus Williams, who hasn't been seen since Wimbledon due to a kneecap injury, and Vika Azarenka, who has long been promising to blow everyone away in one of these events. Venus' record here has been poor for years, and the last time she reached a Slam final away from the grass of Wimbledon was 2003. You have to oppose her on that stat alone. Azarenka has issues with maturity and mental stability, but can match it with any player on the tour when it all clicks.

Backing someone with confidence in this tournament is a tough one, but two players worth looking at for back-to-lay trades at least, are Vera Zvonareva and Svetlana Kuznetsova. There should be several rounds at least in both of them, and if the draw opens up elsewhere, their prices could tighten up quickly.

And some remaining R1 match action:

A match with a not-so-obvious Aussie link is the clash between tenth seed David Ferrer (400) and young Ukrainian Alexandr Dolgopolov (730). The Ukrainian has shot up the rankings this year and will be top 25 next year. He is coached by veteran Australian mentor Jack Reader. This kid can really play, and while he might not yet be up to five sets against one of the fittest men on tour, watch him stretch Ferrer to the limits.

Alicia Molik (1000) has struggled this year on her comeback from injury, but she did show strong form earlier in the year at Indian Wells, reaching R4 and losing in a third-set breaker to Zheng (290). She is the outsider against qualifier Mirjana Lucic (1000) who didn't beat that much to get through. On current form, she deserves to be favoured, but not by as much as the market suggests. There's some value in Molik here.

Scott Ferguson

*Odds taken at 12.10pm 31/08/2010