Betting tips / Michael Vaughan / 17 January 2012 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

Pakistan will hit the ground running in Day One of the Test against India, and Michael Vaughan expects them to be in the driving seat by the end of the day.

A good starting point is to consider which XI are likely to be picked for England.

Had Tim Bresnan been fit, the selectors and Andrew Strauss may well have toyed with the idea of playing the Yorkshireman at seven, with Matt Prior at six and played five proper bowlers in the process.

I say 'toyed' because I don't think they would actually have gone ahead with that plan. But now that Bresnan has been ruled out it's definitely not going to happen because, at the moment, Stuart Broad isn't quite a Test number seven.

Two spinners?

That would have been a possibility as well with Monty Panesar -- who took a five-fer in the first warm-up game -- forming a dangerous partnership with the ever-present Graeme Swann. But England very rarely take those sort of gambles and the far more likely scenario is that they'll play three seamers with Swann being the sole specialist spinner. If things go wrong in the first Test we may well see Monty in the second. However, that's a long way away.

So, it's likely to be: Strauss, Cook, Trott, Pietersen, Bell, Morgan, Prior, Broad, Swann, Anderson, Tremlett. Pretty much the guys who took England all the way to the number one spot in the Test rankings and you can't really argue with that.

There may well be some morning dew on the pitch at the toss but I don't think that will put either Strauss or Misbal Ul Haq off choosing to bat, should they call correctly. After all, the dew will be there on the morning of the remaining days. A first innings score of over 400 will put the team batting first in control of the match so bear that in mind if you're going to have an in-play bet.

I've said already in my preview of the series winner market that I expect Pakistan to come out all guns blazing on the morning of day one, irrespective of whether they bat or bowl. They'll see themselves very much as the home team here and the one who will want to seize the initiative. England have been OK in the warm-up matches but the intensity will be a lot higher when the real action starts.

It would be just like Pakistan to take complete control of the match by the end of day one having gone into the match as the underdogs. But then again it would be just like Pakistan to start playing some rash shots or drop a couple of dollies when they were on top. The best way to play this is to _blank">back Pakistan pre-match at [3.9] and lay off your bet if they hit [3.0].

For Pakistan first innings top bat honours I'm backing the veteran Younis Khan. He's seen it all before and has played a lot of cricket over in the UAE over the last couple of years so there should be nothing in these pitches that will come as too much of a surprise to him. He has faced most of England's bowlers in one format or another too so should know what to expect from them and is a solid choice to come out top of the pile.

_blank">2 pts Back-to-lay Pakistan @ [3.9]
_blank">2pts Back Younis Khan to be Pakistan first innings top batsman @ [5.0]