Betting tips / Tour Connoisseur / 20 July 2012 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

Although Stage 18 of Le Tour is reasonably flat compared to what competitors have just been through, the Tour Connoisseur predicts that a  little climb 10 kilometres from the finish could bring a few surprises.

Preview

With the Pyrenees behind them, the riders that remain in the Tour De France have a long trek on stage 18 heading due north, direction Paris.

 

With only three stages remaining, including the final individual Time Trial and the stage onto the Champs-Elysees, it's a last opportunity or chance for a breakaway to succeed, but it could also be where the sprinters resume their battle for line honours. 

The Favourites

Peter Sagan
With three stages to his credit, and the Green Jersey wrapped up, Sagan has to be the favourite. Not only has he won a couple of uphill finishes, he also got the better of the sprinters on a flat finish. With the little climb right at the end, it's up his alley.

Edvald Boasson Hagen
Has played a worker's role in Team Sky this year. He did have an opportunity on Stage 13, finishing 3rd, and again, like Sagan, with the short climb near the finish it should suit him and I expect his team to give him the opportunity to go for the win if it's hard enough.

Outsiders

Simon Gerrans
The Australian has tried in vain to make a breakaway throughout the race, but hasn't succeeded. His team are still yet to win a stage and are desperate to do so. I expect Gerrans will be giving it everything to make the winning break, if one succeeds. It's his last chance. 

Michael Albasini
Riding for the same team as Gerrans, I'm giving Orica-GreenEdge a real chance on this stage, for a couple of reasons. They haven't won a stage as yet and this will be one of two remaining chances for them to nail one. Albasini has had a great season so far and is a real racer. He's been in the mix on a couple of stages here. He's a rider who will step up for the team if the opportunity presents itself.

Andre Greipel
Anything can happen on this stage and from what we saw from Greipel on the run into Cap-D'agde, he was one of the only sprinters who got over the climb and made it back to the lead group then won the stage. With three stage wins so far this year, if he's there he'll be hard to beat.

The Smokey

Mark Cavendish
You can't discount the Manxman. I know he's played the domestique role for the majority of this year's race, but moving onto these last two road stages he'll be keen to nab at least one, if not both. I keep saying it: he's won 21 stages in total!

In Summary

Sagan is hot favourite for a fourth stage win, so back him the most. 

Boasson Hagen is class and likes a tougher finish, and is definitely worth something.

Gerrans or  Albasini for a break, so both worth a little. 

Consider Greipel if it's a bunch sprint. 

Cavendish will be hungry, and if he makes it to the finish, he'll have Boasson Hagen to lead him out. Always worth backing a little.