Betting tips / Tour Connoisseur / 12 July 2012 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

The Tour Connoisseur believes it's the Italians turn to take a Stage in the Tour de France.

Preview

The Second Alpine day is going to be a tough one, with four categorised climbs including two Hors Category and a mountain top finish.

I find it hard to imagine that a breakaway can win the day. Team Sky will once again set a tempo on the Cols and I expect the 'overall contenders' to fight it out on the final push to the finish.

The Favourites

Vincenzo Nibali
Had a bit of an attack on Stage 10 on the descent. He's looking good though and with a monster day in the mountains I've always thought the Italian will be at his best in the second and third week.

Cadel Evans
I give the Australian another chance here. Wiggins and co will mark him in the final, but if he's on a super day he could drop all but a few and ride to glory. He knows that each day he has to try something, given he is trailing by 1min 53 seconds, so he's sure to attack.

Outsiders

Jurgen Van Den Broek
The Belgian is looking good on the climbs too. Gained a bit of time on the Yellow Jersey group on stage 10, but still trails in the overall by 4:48. This is enough for Team Sky to give him a little more leeway. I give him a real chance.

Pieter Weening
The Dutchman has been riding well so far in the tour, generally in the second group on all the major climbing days. He trails the Yellow by 28:30 and this is the reason why I give him a chance, but again it will have to be in a breakaway.

The Smokey

Rein Taaramae
The Estonian, who rides for Cofidis, currently sits in 12th overall at 4:58 behind the Yellow. Won a stage of the Vuelta Last year, which happened to be a mountain top finish. He's just enough of the pace that they may let him go in a break.

In Summary

As I keep saying these ones are tough to pick. My feeling is that it will be a day for the 'General contenders', purely because of the number of high mountains they go over.

Nibali looks good to me, and Evans if all goes his way.

You also have to have a couple of opportunists though just in case a break succeeds. Weening hasn't had a serious crack just yet, so he's still worth a little, and maybe Van den Broek for a late attack.

Or Taaramae in a long one as he's obviously going ok sitting in 12th place.

Recommended Bet @ Betfair Nibali