Tom Brady key for both sides
Betting tips 
/ Andy Richmond / 22 January 2012 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market
I don't see the Patriots running away with this one - the Ravens are too good defensively for that but they also need their offence to control the ball and eat up the clock to limit the time and number of touches that Brady has of the ball
So close to the Super Bowl, Andy Richmond can't go past the New England Patriots as favourites and has found a few value bets for you to consider.
Match odds: Baltimore [3.85], New England [1.34]
For once the playoff seedings have worked out the way they are meant to, with the second ranked Baltimore Ravens visiting the New England Patriots, who led the regular season rankings in the AFC for the right to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.
The whole NFL season seems to have been dominated by talk about offenses, quarterbacks and passing yards. Well, nobody told the Ravens, who live and die by their defence, whereas the Patriots have been far keener to embrace an offensive philosophy and let the defence take care of itself.
That scenario sets up a classic strength versus strength battle and while that in itself is a fascinating head-to-head, it could be the forgotten segments of the two combatants that end up being the difference makers in this game. Both teams relied on their strengths to come through their playoff games last week, the Patriots having the easiest ride as Tebow-mania finally hit the buffers at Foxboro, while the Ravens endured a slightly more turbulent victory over the Texans.
That victory for New England was a welcome one in the post-season as it stopped a three-game losing streak in the playoffs started by their defeat in Super Bowl XLII by the Giants and also included a loss to the Ravens 33-10 in 2010. That defeat will be one that Patriots quarterback Tom Brady will be keen to forget as he threw three interceptions, was sacked three times and threw for just 154 yards as the Patriots lost after falling behind 24-0 in the first quarter. They are plenty of the Ravens' defence still around on this occasion who will be quick to remind him of those events, but Brady is only one of four offensive starters who remain for New England.
Pressure on Brady will be one of the keys for Baltimore, but despite that success two years ago I'm still of the opinion they will be burning plenty of midnight oil, trying to break down a very complicated and flexible Patriots' offence. Much of Brady's and New England's success this season has been based on the no-huddle offence where they catch a defence in a package that they like and speed the game up. This involves calling plays without a huddle to prevent substitutions and limit defensive calls, often catching the opposition in some very poor coverages and personnel match-ups. It's doubtful that Brady will turn the ball over three times on this occasion and the Ravens didn't get to Texans quarterback T.J. Yates once last week.
The Ravens might be able to limit Brady but they won't be able to stifle him completely, so whether they can put points on the board themselves will be another of the game's big questions. The answer to that will heavily involve Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco. Even his own teammates have been casting doubts about his ability this week and he'll need to silence the doubters here with (I suspect) a least a two-touchdown pass display to keep the Ravens competitive. Crucial to that offensive effort will be Ray Rice. He had a big day leading the Baltimore running game in that play-off win but he was contained in their last meeting at Foxboro in the regular season. The Ravens' running game can disappear at times on the road and in four road defeats they appeared to forget Rice. In the team's four road wins, he had 80 carries for 519 yards and four touchdowns. I'm almost certain he'll be fed the ball the way he was in the road wins, but if the Patriots can shut him down, there will be even more pressure on Flacco.
Flacco is 4-4 on the road this year with just 10 touchdowns, six interceptions, three lost fumbles and 19 sacks. The Ravens can't afford to turn the ball over against this Patriots team. Brady won't pile up six touchdown passes like he did last week, but Flacco has never thrown more than two TD passes in a playoff game and he'll need plenty of production here against a Patriots team that is hard to shutdown.
I don't see the Patriots running away with this one - the Ravens are too good defensively for that but they also need their offence to control the ball and eat up the clock to limit the time and number of touches that Brady has of the ball. Turnovers have been critical in the playoffs and will continue to be so here. But the extra day's rest and home advantage gives the edge to the Patriots, where the lesser parts of the two sides may have a very large input in deciding who goes to the Super Bowl.
Recommended Bet
Back under 50.5 match points @ [1.86] or better
