Betting tips / The Early Crow / 23 November 2009 / Leave a comment Bet Now

The Victorian Government is a certainty to claim the next election, due in November 2010. Take the 1.20 on offer now from the bookies and lay it off later on the exchange at what will be a very tight quote.

Victoria's Premier John Brumby couldn't wipe the smile off his face after the success of Tiger Woods' visit to Melbourne, which was engineered by his government. With a price tag of $3 million just to show up, it was a good thing the world's greatest golfer was on his game at Kingston Heath.

But Brumby has got even more to smile about today, with the latest opinion polls showing a decisive lead for the Premier, who wasn't actually voted into the position at the last election.

A poll commissioned by The Sunday Age newspaper has the ALP ahead in Victoria by what is effectively an unassailable margin - 58 per cent to 42 per cent on a two-party preferred basis. On primary votes alone, Labor would still secure enough seats to be just short of a majority if the election were held now. It is at 50 per cent in the latest poll to the Coalition's 36 per cent.

In contrast to the shenanigans of their NSW counterparts, Brumby's Government rarely takes a hit from the media. In fact, there hasn't been a single public relations disaster since Steve Bracks accidentally knocked over the Liberal Premier Jeff Kennett in 1999.

Brumby took over the role after the sudden departure of Steve Bracks and he's slotted into it very comfortably. The transition would have to rank as one of the smoothest handovers in Australian politics.

The ALP in Victoria is now more popular than it was when Steve Bracks went to the polls in 2006. Brumby is the preferred premier for 56 per cent of voters, while the Liberal leader Ted Baillieu has only 25 per cent support.

Victoria now has fixed four year terms of government, so the next election won't be held until November 27, 2010. The latest poll has the incumbent party picking up another seven seats, making it a near impossibility for Opposition leader Ted Baillieu to bridge the gap.

The Betfair exchange isn't yet fielding a market on the Victorian election, but it's no surprise that Centrebet's market has Labor at 1.20 and the Opposition as 4.25 outsiders.

For those with the luxury of a bank account holding surplus funds, it's worth lumping on Labor at that price. They will only shorten between now and the election, and by the time the election nears, the exchange will offer plenty of liquidity to lay the ALP at very cramped odds.