Betting tips / Ed Hawkins / 31 December 2011 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

Although it can't be denied the tourists were heroic in Durban, Ed Hawkins can't see how they can escape with a series win when Sri Lanka meet South Africa at the host's fortress Newlands.

South Africa
Naturally, changes are in the offing after the home side were stunned by Sri Lanka in the second Test at Durban.

Jacques Rudolph and Ashwell Prince are under pressure and one of them could miss out for Alviro Petersen, who has been retained in the squad. Rudolph has a top score of 44 in seven innings since his return to Test cricket and looks most vulnerable.

Petersen has domestic form backing his selection. He scored a century last time out and averages nearly 70.

Morne Morkel is also a doubt. Vernon Philander is now fit after overcoming a trouiblesome knee. But it is highly unlikely that his replacement for Durban, Marchant de Lange, will step aside after taking seven for 81 on debut.

Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka's 208-run win in Durban was historic as it was their first in South Africa. It is being talked of as their greatest win in history.

So there would be little point shuffling the XI. The men to watch are Thilan Samaraweera, whose first-innings century put them on course, and Chanaka Welegedara. He took five for 52, the pivotal performance, as the Proteas were knocked over for 168.

Sri Lanka never looked back and Rangana Herath, who had impressive flight and bounce, mopped up with his spin as the pitch deteriorated, taking five wickets.

Pitch and conditions
The Newlands wicket, or should that be the atmosphere, seems to be conducive to help the pacemen. The average first-innings score in the last ten is low at 281.

There have been some very low scores in that period. Zimbabwe were bowled out for 54 in 2005 while in November there was an extraordinary game between South Africa and Australia. The hosts were bowled out for 96 and were staring defeat in the face. But they dismissed Australia for just 47 and then chased down 236 for the loss of only two wickets.

There could be cloud and showers early on the first day which will help the bowlers but for the rest of the Test sun is forecast.

Match odds
Sri Lanka are [7.00] to go one step further and take the series in Cape Town, with South Africa [1.58] and the draw [4.80].

It would be certainly nice to get a lay of the stalemate at some stage in-running - anything around [3.00] is value - while it would also be great to make a case for the tourists.

We can't see it, though. And the advice has to be to back South Africa. They are a tough, uncompromising outfit and have suffered a blip which they should put right.
Newlands is their fortress. They have lost only three times there since 1994, each of the defeats coming to great Australia sides.

Indeed, the pitch and conditions will not suit Sri Lanka and they could be heavily beaten, as they were on their last visit in 2001 - a innings and 229-run humiliation.

Top South Africa batsman
Jacques Kallis, Graeme Smith and Prince, which could save him, have enviable records at the venue averaging 75, 67 and 54 respectively. Kallis, with a pair last time out, is likely to go off at around [4.5] with Smith a point-and-a-half bigger.

Top Srio Lanka batsman
Samaraweera, for his obduracy, and Kumar Sangakkara, for his supreme talent, are the men to follow. Samaraweera could be as bis as six while Sangakkara, a ton in the second dig at Durban, is skinny at around [3.50]. Mahela Jayawardene is not fancied if the ball nips around.

Recommended bet

South Africa to win third Test at [1.58]