Betting tips / Tour Connoisseur / 06 January 2012 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

The Tour Connoisseur is 'back on the bike', previewing the Men's National Road Race Championship at Buninyong.

The Championship has been held on the tough Mt Buninyong course just outside Ballarat for the last five years.

Riders will cover sixteen laps totalling 160km. With a 3km climb every lap, traditionally the course is really suited to a climbing specialist, but due to the nature of the race and the time of year (start of season) that it's held, history has shown a good one day specialist can also be in the mix.


Favourites
Cameron Meyer finished 6th last year in a sprint to the line for the silver. It's a course that suits his style more and more each year he develops. I'm expecting he'll be good here, as a week later he will line up as defending champion in the World Tour event, 'Tour Down Under' in South Australia. He'll be aiming to be in good shape.

Simon Gerrans, without a doubt, will be one of the protected riders in the new Australian world tour team 'GreenEDGE'. He was 3rd last year and is yet to win the National title. He's due for it and all indicators suggest his time is now.

Stuart O'Grady is the Captain for GreenEDGE, and has won on this course before. At 38 he'll be one of the oldest competitors on Sunday, but also one of the toughest and hardest to beat.


Outsiders
Michael Matthews is the Under-23 World Road Race Champion from 2010 and enjoyed a great first season in the pro ranks in 2011. He had a solid race last year and although the result (15th) didn't reflect this, I expect him to be a serious challenger if he's there in the final few laps.

Nathan Haas has been a revelation in the last few months, winning the Jayco Herald Sun Tour in Victoria last October, then capping it off a week later with victory in the Japan Cup. He has just signed with world tour squad Garmin Cervelo and showed good form in the recent Bay Criterium series to suggest he will be one in the mix come Sunday afternoon.

Richie Porte is another rider who has stepped into the pro ranks with ease. He doe have bigger fish to fry as the season progresses in Europe and yet in saying that he would not bother entering the National title if he didn't fancy his chances. He shouldn't have a problem with the course and if he is in good form, the harder the course the better.

Michael Rogers, similar to Porte, wouldn't bother flying home from his base in Italy if he didn't like his chances. He has ridden well on this course before finishing 2nd in the Road Race in 2009, so is a solid bet.


Smokies
Wesley Sulzberger will possibly play a support role at GreenEDGE, but if one of the leaders falters, he may be given the opportunity to fly. He was another showing strong form at the recent Bay Criterium Series.

Simon Clarke is another rider for GreenEDGE and normally I would say there are too many stars above him who take precedence, but this guy is the perfect opportunist and if a break goes early I'd be surprised if he isn't in it. The question mark, however, hangs over his early-season form


Summary
Looking at the starting list there are 16 GreenEDGE riders lining up...it is their race to lose!

For me, Simon Gerrans (GreenEDGE) is the man to beat. He'll be protected by an army and should deliver the goods, but O'Grady is the Captain, and is ultra reliable, meaning both are safe bets for victory.

Meyer for GreenEDGE will be there also, and could quite easily fill the shoes of Gerrans and O'Grady if either falters. Having the numbers though can sometimes work against you, so any of the outsiders I've tipped would be worth a little something. If I had to pick one it would be Matthew for his explosive sprint finish.

The two smokies are back up for GreenEDGE and the one I like the most is Clarke. He made the early break at the World Championships in Copenhagen last October, and if a break away succeeds here it could be right up his alley.