Betting tips / The Betfair Contrarian / 30 November 2011 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

When considering the Six Nations in 2012, why on earth would anyone want to back in an English rugby side when they are coach-less and with their governing body in turmoil? The Betfair Contrarian will tell you why...

After a World Cup more memorable for the players' off-field antics than their performances on it, English rugby last week achieved a level of turmoil that the Football Association could only dream of when the media got hold of the "confidential" report into their World Cup misery.

Yet, though currently coachless and void of direction, the Contrarian anticipates a bright future for the England team, beginning with victory at next year's Six Nations at [4.1]...

World Cup heroes often flop at the Six Nations...
Understandably given their success at the Rugby World Cup, France are rated [2.98] favourites to win the Six Nations, followed by the side that they beat in the semi-finals, Wales, at [3.85].

However, there is an historic tendency for the top European performers at a World Cup to then underwhelm half a year down the line at the Six Nations, perhaps finding it a struggle to hit peak form in a tournament that doesn't seem quite so significant after a star turn on the ultimate stage. England missed out on the prize in 2004 and 2008, having entered as World Cup winners and runners-up respectively, while 1999 World Cup finalists France lost two home games at the next Six Nations. Les Bleus suffered a similar slump after finishing third in 1995, even enduring a rare defeat to Scotland.

...whereas England handle that shift better than most
The Six Nations that follows a World Cup effectively starts a new four-year cycle leading towards the next scrap for the Webb Ellis Cup. England tend to kick off those sequences more impressively than most, claiming the springtime silverware in three of the last five post-World Cup editions (a 60% strike rate). Considering that their record in the years other than those triumphant campaigns is four wins in 15 attempts (a 27% strike rate), their post-World Cup displays look formidable by comparison. In that period, some of their most stunning showings occurred after disappointing World Cups, bouncing back from their quarter-final exit in 1999 with a first Six Nations victory in four years, and beating World Cup finalists France in their own backyard along the way.

And England are holders after all
Easily forgotten in the wake of a shambolic few months in New Zealand is the fact that England actually started 2011 strongly, even offering brief glimpses to suggest that they could be genuine contenders. And as Martin Johnson ponders his next career move, he can take solace from having been the man who ended an eight-year wait for Six Nations success, England's longest barren run since 1991. In recent decades, they have been streaky in the competition, winning three times in four years prior to the drought and four in six between 1991 and 1996 in between two other lean spells.

The calibre of coaching should improve
It was no real surprise to see the quality of Johnson's leadership criticised in the leaked report into England's World Cup woes, given both his greenness and the adage about great players rarely scaling the same heights from the sidelines. The [1.41] favourite to replace him is Jim Mallinder. The 45-year-old ticks the experience and success boxes - he's been in the coaching game for a decade and has guided Northampton Saints from the second tier to the Heineken Cup Final and lifted cups along the way. He is familiar with the international setup too having led England at youth level, (and won their version of the Six Nations), and the England Saxons before.