Tennis Betting: Wimbledon Day One
I wouldn’t want to see Lisicki go out early, but I think she could well do and (2.34) is a decent price about Martic.
With the forecast set to be fair, almost, Sean Calvert and tennis fans are ready and raring to go on Day One of the 2012 Wimbledon Championships.
There are plenty of competitive matches to choose from on Day One and a few lively outsiders to take a gamble on, including a few from my 'five potential first round shocks' list.
Fabio Fognini, Oliver Golding, and David Nalbandian have already been advised at odds-against and play today, where there are several other matches that catch my eye.
But upsets are generally very few and far between in the first round of the men's singles at Wimbledon, as can be highlighted by the fact that only four big-priced players won in last year's opening round.
And the biggest price of those was the (4.6) about Ricardo Mello beating Frank Dancevic, so big shocks tend to be rare early on.
Indeed, of all of last year's first round matches, only 10 won at (2.0) or higher.
A better policy is to try and hoover up those favourites in singles and multiples, but one massive favourite may not have things all his own way today.
Novak Djokovic is priced up at around (1.02) to defeat Juan Carlos Ferrero in his opening match on Centre Court in defence of his title, and while I doubt that the Spaniard can win I do think that a price of (36) is a bit of an insult. It's never easy coming out onto Centre Court for your first match as champion after just a few knockabout matches on grass as preparation, and Ferrero is a quality performer on grass, with two Wimbledon quarter finals in the last five years.
He's not quite 'The Mosquito' of old, but I still think he can keep it respectable today and he looks a good bet with a 9.5 game start on the handicap @ around Betfair odds of (1.75).
They've played just the twice before, with the score at 1-1, but those matches were a long time ago and they've never before met on grass, and I'm sure Nole would have hoped for an easier opener today than this.
On the women's side, there are a few underdogs I like today, including Jelena Jankovic, and although it pains me to say it, Petra Martic has a great chance against my favourite women's player Sabine Lisicki.
At a price of around (2.34) there's some value in siding with the Croatian in this one, despite the negative head-to-head in favour of Lisicki. The German performed well here last year and maybe a return to the lawns of Wimbledon will do her some good, but she's in awful form and once again struggling with injury.
Sabine has lost her last five matches in a row since retiring in Charleston with an ankle injury and I have major doubts over her fitness coming into what is a tough match against the improving Martic.
The world number 45 defeated Marion Bartoli at the French Open recently and that will have given her the confidence she needs to win a match like this.
I wouldn't want to see Lisicki go out early, but I think she could well do and (2.34) is a decent price about Martic.
Recommended Betfair Bets
Back Ferrero +9.5 games to beat Djokovic at [1.75]
Back Martic to beat Lisicki at (2.34)