Betting tips / Sean Calvert / 27 May 2012 / Leave a comment Bet Now View Market

Now that the draw has been made up for the 2012 French Open, Sean Calvert is backing a Nadal/Djokovic final as one of his top bets.

The question on everyone's lips even before the draw was made was: Can Djokovic achieve the Nole Slam and hold all four majors at the same time?

The draw has given him every chance and, although the world number one has been paired in the same half as Roger Federer, Juan Martin Del Potro, Tomas Berdych, and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, only Tsonga is in his quarter.

There's also a slight threat from the likes of Fernando Verdasco, Gilles Simon, Stan Wawrinka and Jurgen Melzer, but Nole's immediate section looks a fair bit easier than Federer's.

Djokovic takes on Potito Starace first up, followed by a possible re-match from Melbourne with the old warhorse Lleyton Hewitt.

Melzer, Verdasco, Simon, Viktor Troicki, Wawrinka, Brian Baker, Andreas Seppi, Nikolay Davydenko and Ernests Gulbis are the rest of the opposition, as well as Tsonga who is far from his best on the red dirt.

So, Djokovic looks pretty certain to make the last eight, but the same can't be said of Federer, who won't be happy with his draw.

He shouldn't have any problems with first round opponent Tobias Kamke, but David Nalbandian in round two isn't a gimme, although the rest of his early rounds until the quarters look comfortable.

Then it might get tough for the Swiss, as he will in all probability face the winner of Del Potro and Berdych - the two outsiders generally regarded as having the best chance of upsetting the dominance of the big four in this year's tournament.

Personally, I'm still not convinced by the post-2009 Del Potro and I wouldn't be advising him as a bet at around Betfair odds of 46.0.

The big Argentine has lost 10 of his last 13 matches against top-10 opposition and he hasn't taken a set from Federer since his glory days of three years ago. He's shown glimpses of that form since, but he simply isn't at that level consistently in matches these days and Berdych is the more likely opponent for Federer in my view.

We know what Berdych can hit through this slow surface, as he has shown on numerous occasions and his draw looks easier compared to Del Potro, who has the likes of Marin Cilic and JC Ferrero in his way early on.

At around Betfair odds of 60.0, Berdych should give you a run for your money, but it's hard to see him beating Del Potro, Federer, Djokovic and probably Nadal to win this tournament.

He would have been my outside bet, but that draw is too much for anyone.

In the bottom half, Rafa Nadal's toughest early opponent could turn out to be Milos Raonic, who he is drawn to meet in the fourth round unless Juan Monaco beats the Canadian first.

Raonic is a dark horse at a price of around Betfair odds of 290.0 but he's got a bit to prove on slow clay after a surprising loss to Florian Mayer in Rome following a great tournament in Barcelona and he's had injury worries lately as well.

The remainder of Nadal's quarter looks fairly weak, with Nico Almagro perhaps the most likely last eight opponent for Rafa ahead of the other contenders who include Janko Tipsarevic, Philipp Kohlschreiber and Julien Benneteau.

It would be a massive shock if Rafa didn't make the semi finals against that lot and there he will most likely meet either Andy Murray, David Ferrer or John Isner.

Instinctively, I would plump for Ferrer, but his record at Roland Garros is poor and he has only made the last eight twice in nine tries heading into this year's tournament and he's never gone further than that.

Perhaps the slightly more aggressive style he adopted of late will stand him in good stead and on clay form he has to be respected more than Murray and Isner, both of whom have had poor clay seasons so far.

Ferrer and Isner have been drawn together, but Murray's only real danger on paper is Richard Gasquet, who he may meet in the third round unless Alex Dolgopolov decides that he's going to put in a shift this fortnight.

Murray has been in no sort of form on clay this year and he still seems to be troubled by a back injury, so he won't be making my shortlist at a price of around Betfair odds of 46.0.

I'd be more tempted by laying the 3.25 about him winning quarter three, as he would need a fairly significant improvement on recent displays to figure here and with a dodgy back it looks unlikely.

In conclusion, Rafa has already been backed in to around 1.74 after publication of a draw that has been extremely kind to him and in my view only Djokovic can beat him here.

So, with no value in that 1.74 a back-to-lay on Djokovic at 4.4 is the only play in the outright market. I think Nole will play Rafa a lot tougher than he did in Rome with his holy grail of the Nole Slam at stake and there's always a chance, however slim, that Rafa won't make the final.

Backing 'yes' in a Nadal/Djokovic final at 1.93 should also prove a winner, as should laying Murray to win quarter three at around 3.25.

Recommended Betfair Bets
Back to lay Djokovic at 4.4
Back 'yes' in Nadal/Djokovic final @ 1.93
Lay Murray to win quarter three @3.25